ok thanks, i thought so too, although the second he called the flop i had a gut feeling i was toast, but i guess that's results orientated thinking.

Cant convert hand because it AB.

After session i came back to one hand and tried to figure out my implied odds.

So its turn and i bet $1.5 into $1.25 pot whit str8 draw. He reraises pot $4.25 more to $5.75. Pot is now $8.5 and i have $18.3 left. I was sure if i call and make str8, he will call my shove 100% and i win.

So bet is $4.25, pot is $8.5 and i have left $18.3.
My implied odds are ($8.5 + $18.3) / $4.25 = 6.3 :1 ???
I need 4.75 : 1 ( 8 outs )to make str8.
6.3 - 4.75 = 1.55 more than i need.

1st question is my math correct?
2nd question is about that 1.55, like how much is that? Is it 1.55 * $4.25 = $6.59 profit every time i hit str8. And probability to hit is 5.75, so $6.59 / 5.75 = $1.15 profit every hand.

3rd question is how thin is this thinking about this hand? its like 230BB/100.
LOL and if u take rake off (-$2.5 every time i win) its like 140BB/100.

Ok this hand was just a sample, real consern is my math here.
And if u got advise how to figure this out like 3 sec when im playing 14 tables...its helpful...im not math player but little math wisdom dosent hurt.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($6.66)
BB ($3.71)
UTG ($10.94)
Hero ($10.30)
CO ($20.24)
BTN ($10)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.80

FLOP ($2.35) 2 K 6

UTG checks, Hero checks

TURN ($2.35) 2 K 6 Q

UTG bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

RIVER ($3.95) 2 K 6 Q 2

UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $5, UTG raises to $9.04 (AI), Hero calls $3.40 (AI)

UTG shows 2 2
(Pre 18%, Flop 90.8%, Turn 2.3%)

Hero shows Q Q
(Pre 82%, Flop 9.2%, Turn 97.7%)

UTG wins $19.37

Not posting this as a cooler, I was just talking (whining) to Spraggy about it on Skype and we were talking about the turn play, just wanted to get some more feedback on it. Villain has pretty solid stats, so I think checking the flop is fine because i expect him to c/c all his kx and fold most of his underpairs, although they may peel one card but I think if I check his underpairs are more likely to bet turn for thin value or look me up a bit lighter given flop weakness.

On the turn I hit my set, and he makes a super weak bet. I know the issue is stack building, calling leaves $8 in a $4 pot, which we have to get in on every single possible river. But with like zero draws on the board except J10 which I never expect him to flat a 3bet with, I expect on this board he's either massively weak and will fold to a turn raise, but if I call maybe get into a hero call mood and c/c river or bet really thin. Either way, I think he mostly shuts down his weak hands, but anything strong enough to call a turn raise on this turn is also strong enough to bet river for value and probably call a raise, so I can get at least one more street, and probably more if he continues his initiative of betting first. Thoughts?

Also I know river raise size is horrible, I was timing down whilst playing another hand, I was thinking maybe like 3.50-4.20 ish to try and get max value from his one pair kx type hands. Cheers

no need to get fancy in 3bet pots imo. he has shown enough aggression already and i'm raising that turn for value with the intention to stacking off.

long story short: Make it 4 ott, shove river.

How do you like this play?

villain was fishy
33/18/afq 19%; dont have many post flop stats on him tho;

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($8.03)
Hero ($10.05)
UTG ($10.70)
CO ($13.26)
BTN ($10.15)

Dealt to Hero J A

fold, CO raises to $0.40, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.30

FLOP ($0.85) J 5 4

Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.40, CO calls $1

TURN ($3.65) J 5 4 2

Hero bets $2.40, CO calls $2.40

RIVER ($8.45) J 5 4 2 9

Hero bets $5.85 (AI), CO calls $5.85

Hero shows J A
(Pre 74%, Flop 88.2%, Turn 95.5%)

CO shows J K
(Pre 26%, Flop 11.8%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero wins $18.81

Seems ok unless he has a brain.

well yea, lol, he was the fish at the table having everybodys attention. i c/r the flop cuz of TPTK and Ah for BDNFD and thats why i fired turned too. by the river i was pretty sure im looking at an overpair but shoved trying to rep the flush but obv he calls with worse too spew? in a vacuum yea, i dont do that normaly, just felt liek a good spot.

i don't think that's spew, it's totally correct imo

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1118538
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $28.18
BB: $10.45
UTG: $10.00
Hero (CO): $12.62
BTN: $20.32

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 4 A 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.95) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, BTN raises to $19.42 all in, Hero folds

Villain is 23/18 3bet 2.2% over 125 hands.


He didn't seem to be calling IP too often so I'm not sure if suited connectors would be in his range. Though we could make an exception for KQs I guess.

I suppose the most likely holding would be 99 or bluff/semi-bluff. What do you think guys, good fold?

In fact, thinking about it, SCs are quite rare so I guess hard to say if he is playing them with such a small sample.

I've only playing about 4 months so you'll have to bear with me

villain 20/16 over 232 hands
folds to 3b 76%
fold to cbet flop 78%

is the turn a b/f or c/f? pretty sure river is a c/f


UTG: $167.72
MP: $29.02
CO: $49.24
BTN: $36.26
SB: $27.91
Hero (BB): $56.83

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K K

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.75, CO calls $2.90, fold, fold

Flop: ($9.20, 2 players) 3 Q 2
Hero bets $7.00, CO calls $7.00

Turn: ($23.20, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $11.00, CO calls $11.00

River: ($45.20, 2 players) T
Hero checks, CO bets $27.49 and is all-in, fold

CO wins $42.94

I think it's a good fold. I'd expect small flushes to be a big part of his range, if not an AQ or AK with a higher redraw.

andy: standard baluga fold, nice hand. if he was raising as a semibluff i would expect him to do it on the flop rather than on the turn anyway.

errforce: i dunno, gonna have to defer to frenzed deity or tits on this one. I probably just shove it in myself to be honest.

forgot to mention his win money at showdown is 80% and goes to showdown when sees flop is 19. Would you suggest a different line?

Villain is 42/25 over 12 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

CO: $25.00
BTN: $20.51
SB: $25.80
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $28.91
MP: $25.83

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with K K
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.80, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, BTN calls $1.95

Flop: ($5.60) 8 Q 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Turn: ($10.60) J (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $12.10

antonio: i'm never folding an overpair in this 3bet pot, too much money in the middle already, but i might prefer flatting to shoving just to keep occasional bluffs in and also make him feel more comfortable about his AQ.

he's got like 3 bucks behind.

Villain is 20/17 over 388 hands

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1118751
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $8.87
BB: $10.00
UTG: $9.15
Hero (CO): $10.84
BTN: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 2 6 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.95) J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, BTN raises to $4.10, Hero raises to $9.94 all in

Is this ok?

i feel like maybe i fcuked this up. i don't know. what do you think. I wasn't expecting to be flatted, should i have just shipped it in on the flop? or shipped the turn?

no reads on villain, he's 28/14 over like 15 hands

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $10.72
Hero (MP): $12.20
CO: $13.05
BTN: $14.97
SB: $6.99
BB: $11.66

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A K

fold, Hero raises to $0.28, fold, BTN calls $0.28, fold

Flop: ($0.71, 3 players) 5 3 8
Hero bets $0.47, BTN raises to $1.41, Hero raises to $4.05, BTN calls $2.64

Turn: ($8.81, 3 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($8.81, 3 players) 9
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.87, fold

BTN wins $8.37

might raise slightly more on the flop then shove turn.

Seems thin. I'd check back.

Not folding.

Yeah, fistpump.

Raise turn to get pot big enough on river.

Don't really like it vs anyone that has a fold button. The only hands you usually see vs someone decent are two pair+.

The only people that can call this with worse are really good players (who might understand your ranges well), or complete fishcakes.

This is fine

Prob c/f the turn. Or c/c turn, c/f river with reads.
Reason being that he has such a high fold to cbet usually.
We're c/f turn cause we think he won't valuebet worse (and he obv doesn't have a wide bluffing range on the turn cause he folds to so many cbets).
If you wanna c/c turn it's cause you think he'll bet something like JJ there for thin value and then checks back river.

Betting is definitely thin. And since you're deep, you're building big pots to leave yourself susceptible to being bluffed on the river.

He's not even full stacked. Ship it.

Without reads, fold turn. You're semi-bluffing without fold equity.

I'd just jambo the turn. We have *some* fold equity here I'd think, and sometimes he'll snap with a draw himself.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($52.27)
BB ($25)
UTG ($34.26)
UTG+1 ($38.74)
CO ($37.90)
Hero ($26.71)

Dealt to Hero Q J

UTG raises to $0.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($1.35) Q J 7

UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.75, UTG calls $1.50

TURN ($4.85) Q J 7 K

UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $4.50, UTG raises to $32.01 (AI), Hero folds

UTG wins $13.17

deadbird: i think it's fine


--------------------------------------------


villain is a 21/15 straightforward TAG. I'm opening kinda loose because of fish in the blinds.

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $2.98
Hero (UTG): $10.00
CO: $18.49
BTN: $14.43
SB: $1.94

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8 7

Hero raises to $0.28, fold, BTN calls $0.28, SB calls $0.23, fold

Flop: ($0.94, 3 players) 9 K T
SB checks, Hero bets $0.62, BTN calls $0.62, fold

Turn: ($2.18, 2 players) T
Hero bets $1.09, BTN calls $1.09

River: ($4.36, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $4.36

RB: I don't think you should barrel turn cause it's unlikely he'll fold anything that calls flop and I don't know if he'll fold Kx to a 3rd barrel anyway. Plus he can still have Tx by the river if he flats the turn.