Alright, so I an interesting hand I need some advice on.
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 200 BB
BTN: 59.5 BB
Hero (SB): 99 BB
BB: 61.5 BB)
UTG: 109.5 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
8
fold,
fold, BTN calls 1 BB,
Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB
Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4
T
9
Hero bets 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB,
fold
Turn: (22.5 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks,
BB bets 9 BB,
Hero calls 9 BB
River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks,
BB bets 21 BB,
Hero raises to 80.5 BB and is all-in,
fold
Hero wins 78.5 BB
1 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.
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Okay, so this hand is interesting because of my decision to slowplay the nut flush after it comes in on the turn.
Let me explain my reasoning. If I bet or check/raise turn, I expect to get called by worse flushes and
occasionally a set or 2P. If I check, I expect Villain to bet all of his worse flushes (as we are underrepped), and also some bluffs. In this situation, by check/calling, I am getting Villain to put money in the pot with hands he otherwise would not (the bluffs). And, while I may miss out on value from sets, I don't think Villain will have many here. This is because I would mainly expect those hands to either 3b pre or raise the flop in a multiway pot.
On the river, I expect Villain to continue with some bluffs if I check to him. I also expect him to bet all his worse flushes. Basically the same situation as the river; the advantage to checking is that he will put money in with bluffs, the disadvantage is that he could check back sets/2P.
One last thing: if Villain checks back sets/2P on the turn, I think I can lead river and get those hands to call. In this case, I don't expect to lose to much value, as I think I would probably only get one street of value from those hands anyway.
With everything I said above, I obviously decided to go for the slowplay. So what do you guys think? Do you agree with my reasoning? If not, why? Thanks!