I usually just replay hands by myself to work them out, but I'm in a spot here where I don't really know what's +EV. I feel I should have check called river considering half-pot bet and villain putting me on flush draws. Villain is Tight A with low VP and PFR stats. Plays fairly standard post-flop. Should I just shove when he checks to me on the turn. Am I up against overpair, as I feel AK would not have called big raise on flop, and none of his other ranges could stay in (maybe 77 - 99 type hands). Also, I block the nut flush draw. Yet, the turn check threw me. Any comments appreciated. Cheers.


PokerStars Hand #166321570254: Hold'em No Limit ($0.08/$0.16 USD) -








*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Alexis38 [Ad Ts]
VladimirIRON: folds
Dcaro31: raises $0.32 to $0.48
MrRussia777: calls $0.48
EatYouMoney: folds
aaizhavli: folds
Alexis38: calls $0.48
sebasm15: folds
birdmina44: folds
67JohnBhoy67: folds
*** FLOP *** [Td 4s 4d]
Dcaro31: bets $1.20
MrRussia777: folds
Alexis38: raises $2 to $3.20
Dcaro31: calls $2
*** TURN *** [Td 4s 4d] [5c]
Dcaro31: checks
Alexis38: checks
*** RIVER *** [Td 4s 4d 5c] [2c]
Dcaro31: bets $4.40
Alexis38: folds [Ad Ts]
Uncalled bet ($4.40) returned to Dcaro31
Dcaro31 collected $7.72 from pot
Dcaro31: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.08 | Rake $0.36

I think your call pre flop is a little questionable especially vs a tag in early position.
Your flop raise doesn't accomplish anything either seems like you set your self up to get called by better hands and your letting worst hands fold.
Once we get to the river though he's betting 4.40 into 8.08 and the total pot if we were to call is going to be 16.88 so we only need 26% equity to break even and if villain is betting 100% of his flop continue range then we should have 39% equity which makes this call +EV.
EV=[our equity]*[total pot]-cost of our call
2.18=[.39*16.88]-4.40

Preflop not questionable simply bad.
Flop raise is optimistic (bad) turn river wp.

But most important just dont be in the spot.

Fold preflop. Villains opening range is weight heavily, towards hands that dominate AT (22+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+). Much better to call 33/65s/T9s, then A9o/A8o/KTo. In this spot, even 74s is better than ATo.

Call flop. Villain holds many hands that are ahead of us (JJ+). Worse hands than AT, will be uncomfortable calling a raise.