Really strange river spot with Ace high BTNvsSB 5NLz 3bet pot - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

My thoughts for not betting turn, definitely a mixed strategy but I'd always bet my weaker flush draws/low Axdd hands before this one. And I do like to have some strong bluff catchers/flushes in my x/c range.

It's around $2 to win $10 so he has to be bluffing around 20% of the time for me to break even - what do you think?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BB ($3) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
UTG ($6.76) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
HJ ($42.82) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
CO ($5.67) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
BTN ($10.82) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
HERO ($4.83) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 33.2% | 3-Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 111991]

Dealt to Hero: A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.15, HERO Raises To $0.60, BB Folds, BTN Calls $0.45

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.38 effective]
Flop ($1.25): 7

HERO Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: 3.61), BTN Calls $0.62 (Rem. Stack: 9.60)

Turn ($2.49): 7

HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.65 (Rem. Stack: 7.95), HERO Calls $1.65 (Rem. Stack: 1.96)

River ($5.79): 7

HERO Checks, BTN Bets $5.79 (Rem. Stack: 2.16), HERO ?

Quote

03-24-2019 , 10:50 PM

Flpmethntsdlr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 3,918

I'd bet more otf and jam turn given effective stacks or AP x/jam turn.

Xc river when you whiff is just eh. Not really how you beat 5nl or any game for that matter.

Quote

03-24-2019 , 10:58 PM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flpmethntsdlr

I'd bet more otf and jam turn given effective stacks or AP x/jam turn.

Xc river when you whiff is just eh. Not really how you beat 5nl or any game for that matter.

I think 1/2 pot sizing OTF is reasonable. It’s my standard sizing in 3bet pots with a FD on board. Given his big turn sizing I don’t think I have much fold equity on a turn Jam. Not sure there is a huge EV difference here but I fold out his complete air balls with a jam and it strengthens my usually weak bet flop/xc range which is nice.

I think population literally never has a flush draw with the turn line I took so I don’t really mind it. Was curious about river. I do beat 98s and heart draws so I’m tempted.

Quote

03-24-2019 , 11:12 PM

Flpmethntsdlr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 3,918

True, you also beat J9s, as well, however, do this with hands like KTs that can easily xc river and you don't block any draws and you don't even have to think about it.

Half otf is okay, but, not with this much equity <100BB eff, and esp not if you're going to be thinking about hero'ing otr with a xc with A high against an unknown 5NL v. Just not a sound strat imho.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 06:40 AM

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

not really the blockers you want to x/c river and you'd have plenty of better hands

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03-25-2019 , 07:36 AM

BornToRun

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,257

It's actually 2.16 to win 13.74.

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03-25-2019 , 07:39 AM

.isolated

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

It's actually tomato, not tomahto.

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03-25-2019 , 08:01 AM

BornToRun

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by .isolated

It's actually tomato, not tomahto.

Actually, it would be more like tomat and tomato.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 08:34 AM

AngryDingo

journeyman

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 346

I would definitely be barrelling that particular turn with this hand

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03-25-2019 , 11:19 AM

#10

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by BornToRun

It's actually 2.16 to win 13.74.

Did you look at my starting stack?

Quote

03-25-2019 , 11:20 AM

#11

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryDingo

I would definitely be barrelling that particular turn with this hand

Why is that? What turns would you NOT barrel?

Quote

03-25-2019 , 11:34 AM

#12

Markulous

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,530

I don't mind slowing down a bit on the turn. If you get raised here a good amount, you pretty much have to fold. If villain flopped a set and planned on raising the turn, you get to see a river cheaper here by x/c. I think you can mix it up depending on things. Given the board also, the 4h likely hasn't improved or hurt anyone's hand so unlikely most villain's fold here. You do get value from weaker FDs, but if you miss on the river you are giving your opponent an opportunity to bluff, whereas this way, they're less likely to double barrel with just a (missed) flush draw.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 11:55 AM

#13

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markulous

Unlikely Villain has a missed FD considering the A,T,Q diamonds are all accounted for

Quote

03-25-2019 , 12:02 PM

#14

Markulous

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Unlikely Villain has a missed FD considering the A,T,Q diamonds are all accounted for

Right, so I think we see mostly made hands by villain here. KT/QT/JT are unlikely to raise us on the turn, but they're also unlikely to fold. We may get 33, 55, or 66 to fold, but that's maybe it. I guess we get value from 98 on this street, but not much value otherwise.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 12:27 PM

#15

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markulous

I think 33,55,66 should all be folding OTF so i discount those hands OTT.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 12:29 PM

#16

Markulous

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

I think 33,55,66 should all be folding OTF so i discount those hands OTT.

Really depends on villain and how big of a station they are. At 5NL I'm not completely discounting someone calling with those hands. And if they are that big of a station, they probably aren't folding to a turn bet after a 4 comes out on the turn.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 04:00 PM

#17

xamlop

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,411

0.8 flop/shove turn is pretty std. If we c-c turn for some reason I think we call river as well. We block diamonds but we beat straight draws and still a few xxdd and a few random floats, seems good enough with such odds. I mean what hand do we c-c turn and c-c river ? Tx+ should be 2 barrels or c-shove with those stacks, c-c turn and c-f river doesn't make much sens with any hand imo.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 04:06 PM

#18

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by xamlop

I ended up calling river and he had JJ

Quote

03-25-2019 , 05:08 PM

#19

ArtyMcFly

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Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

I prefer check-calling flop and going from there. C-betting and barreling would also be fine. Bet flop, check-call turn seems a bit weird, and possibly bad. Definitely not calling river.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 05:32 PM

#20

BornToRun

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Did you look at my starting stack?

Apologies, take .20 off both figures.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 05:44 PM

#21

DooDooPoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BornToRun

Apologies, take .20 off both figures.

If my starting stack is ~$5 - and we are heads up. It's impossible for the pot to be ~$13.

BTN's effective shove is $1.96 not $5.79, I think that is where you are getting confused.

Quote

03-25-2019 , 06:10 PM

#22

BornToRun

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,257

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

If my starting stack is ~$5 - and we are heads up. It's impossible for the pot to be ~$13.

BTN's effective shove is $1.96 not $5.79, I think that is where you are getting confused.

That's why I just said take .20 off both figures... $2.16 - .20 = $1.96.

Quote

03-26-2019 , 12:35 AM

#23

whitemares

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,762

This could very well be a "theoretically correct" call, but I'm absolutely certain it's -EV in an anonymous 5nl pool. The only time I'd ever call this hand at 5nl would be with a specific read, which you aren't going to have on Ignition zone

What sizing would you use if you turned a flush with Q

Quote

03-26-2019 , 07:22 AM

#24

Flpmethntsdlr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 3,918

^^ this was the point I was trying to make. You only want to consider making this call if you know V is capable of firing 9 high ott and otr after you x. Even then, doing it with AQ high diamonds isn't even close because it's a combo you should be bombing yourself with great frequency imo. Like I said, xc some of your Tx hands and fold your AQ highs.

The other point, V would have to be insane to bluff otr with what you had left.

Quote

03-26-2019 , 07:36 AM

#25

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by whitemares

When the SPR is lower (like less than 5) I usually only have 1 sizing OTT since stacks can get in easily by the river. So I’d just go half pot with my turn betting range.

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