Reads: No stats, but I see him as an okay TAG/LAG. I have 3-bet him a couple of times, but this is the first time I go three streets.

Is three barrels okay here?

Question: What is the worst hand you'd call the river with in villain shoes if you perceived the shover as a TAG reg?

Stacks: $50 (100bb)

Pre:
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.25, BTN folds, SB (Hero) 3bets with
KQ to $4.5 , BB folds, CO calls.

(Pot: $9)
Flop: 9 4 2
Hero bets $4, CO calls.

(Pot: $17)
Turn: 9 4 2 2
Hero bets $12, CO calls.

(Pot: $40)
River: 9 4 2 2 5
Hero shoves $29

By betting the turn on a 2d (which paires the board and is not considered as a good barrel card), you are basically representing a very strong range which contains JJ+ and hands like AKhh/AQhh. At the turn you should decide if V is capable to fold 88,TT,JJ (I expect him to call with these hands two streets) on a safe river card for him. If you have such an info, barreling seems somewhat ok since you unblock hearts and V could call flop/turn with a FD. Nevertheless, I would 3barrel like this only vs opponents where I have info/stats and not vs unknowns. Also would like to have at least some equity in the pot.

I would call you with QQ+ (maybe with JJ if I unblock hearts).

Assuming villain is 4Bing AK/QQ+ pre with my answer.

2d isn't a great card to barrel vs fish, but it depends on your view on villain or your player pool. Saying that we have tons of value here 99/JJ+ here, that we want to bet with so we do need to bluff too obviously. KQ makes absolutely no sense to double barrel here since we block villains folding range, AQss, some other overcards too, and block 0 of villains continuing range here (JJ-99, note villain is likely overfolding turn as we have such an equity advantage on this board). Double barreling with all our heart combos and x number of combos of JTs/QTs/Qjs is best here.

Not sure how it plays at 50NL, but if I think you're bluffing near enough on these boards I'm calling 99-JJ here.

Super spewy.

Open fold flop

Results:
I had KK (not KQo..) and villain folded and showed me JJ.
So I thought, "if he is folding JJ and often 4bets QQ+ why wouldn't I go for three streets with pure air?"

You're small cbet makes an overpair seem unbelievable to me. With a flush draw out there, I would expect a bigger cbet if you held an overpair.
If I were villain, I may call you down with any pocket pair that I decided to call your 3bet with preflop.

I just saw your results, and I would have lost.:-(

+1

lol

Interesting. Playing TT/JJ is always a catch22 when the board comes low like this because villain (in this case, you) is either bluffing or they're not.

Against nitregs, the third barrel is often the one to make me fold. Trouble is, I open wide enough (esp from the CO)& call enough 3bets that folding TT or JJ here would be terrible against a decent regular.

If you did have KQo, check folding the flop wouldn't be all that terrible tbh. If you're cbetting then u have to be prepared to go two, probably three streets, because only the weakest of opponents is calling a 3bet, only to fold a 942 flop in position. Cbetting and giving up on any turn that isnt a King or queen is just burning money.

Not sure I'm a fan if you were to actually have KQo. I think after turn call villain has exclusively like AQhh and 99-JJ (think his AKhh 4bets), possibly some small Axs. You're not blocking any of his calling range. Obviously this line is fine with KK.

If I'm villain, I view your range as very polarizing (QQ+ (18 combos) vs wiffed heart draws (6ish) and maybe 2-3 combos of spazz/small PP turned into bluffs ), so I don't think I'm indifferent so I lean towards calling more. My calling range on river is likely starting at TT no heart.

God damn will you fish just fold for once and let me get one through!!!

Okay on a serious note no hh is important but don't we actually NOT want to block JJ/TT/99? When villain calls two streets like this, his range is obv pretty narrow. Some FDs, so yes having no hearts is good. But when he doesn't have FD what does he have when we block JJ/TT say with JT? It would seem like he would then be more weighted towards slowplayed AA/KK/QQ, 44, 99, maybe A2. Just strictly talking about hands that get to river with us here I think we actually wouldn't want to block JJ/TT because in THEORY we'd like him to have some of those hands because in THEORY we should be able to get him to fold those as we are repping better. Obv villain dependent as mentioned before but if we really are gunna triple barrel here I would think having A or K or Q non hearts might be better? Idk someone feel free to shoot that down but that just popped in my head as making sense

Pretty standard cbet size IMO. Other than it being a two tone flop it's a really dry board for a 3bet pot and doesn't connect often with either of their ranges. I like 35-40% on the flop and around 75% on blank turns.