Reads: He is a probably a break-even TAG (kinda like me...)
He plays relatively ABC, but not entirely unable to make big bluffs or
call down light.
No particular game-flow atm that I can remember.

Stacks: $50 (100bb)

Preflop:
UTG folds, CO opens $1.5, BTN folds, SB folds, BB (Hero) 3bets to $5 with QQ, CO calls.

(Pot: $10)
Flop: 833
Hero bets $4, CO calls.

(Pot: $18)
Turn: 833 A
Hero?

What is our plan here for turn and river?

Barrwl turn, c/f most rivers without reads

Could x/c river on a complete blank since you dont block hearts, but it's thin

What about JJ?

JJ and QQ for you are very alike here. But of course with QQ it's more likely that you got called with JJ or TT pre , and there aren't made hands (KK and AA) in co flat range.. But when you have JJ co could sometimes have QQ(with reads, it may differ)
A high is definitely a big part of co float range on the flop. But what kind of A high?
AK is there but I assume a good player (not fish and not uber nit) does 4Bet AK ip a good chunk of the time.
So say half the time. An A comes on the turn and now there are 6 combos of AK.
You have QQ and block a huge chunk of AQ as well.
AJ and AT suited might be there as well. Overall this is not a good card for your hand in this specific situation but a great card for your range.
You can check turn, and somehow cap your range pretty much and make your hand face up. Buy you need to be able to call down sometimes evem 2 barrels in this card if you decide to check. It all depends on reads and tendencies.
Or you can barrel turn , you will get rid of floats that doesn't involve an A, maybe get a call from TT , JJ who levelled himself in the A being a scared card that you're barreling on and you can get called by BD heart draws as well.
Also consider this, for balancing here I say you have to bet this turn..
You will have ao much A high and even KQ in this situation later on that this bet will help you shape a balanced range.


On this hand , I would bet turn(half pot or even less) and bet most rivers (non hearts) again for HP (again, very small as a blocker bet to get to a showdown)
Any aggression here from V is going to be mostly Value injected though since on the A you have a huge range advantage.


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If we're barreling with QQ what is in our c/c range? Weak suited Ax?

Pretty much never x'cing this specific turn. We will barrel here with all our bluffs, so imo we have to merge our range here ott. Also, it's hard for IP to fold 99-QQ here when we dbl barrel knowing we have our bluffs, so we can def get value from worse. If we x/c here, it's really easy for a good reg to blast off turn and river with any two cards.

+1
My points in a very summarized and more organized way :-D

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Ran a couple sims...

Both Snowie and Pio play mixed on the turn with a pretty even split between betting 1/2 pot and checking. They then both check call 1/2 pot on the river and fold to a psb.

I think it should be a pretty clear check

I would certainly not bet Ax on the turn every time. Because, just as you said, if we check, an aggressive player will often bluff turn and river.

And I would not bet every bluff on the turn. Quite often I would rather check turn and bet river as a bluff (repping Ax and KK/QQ)

If you're not barreling this card, you're probably not barreling enough turns in general. Just wondering what your turn cbet is??

Optimally, it should be close to your flop cbet %

Imo another thing that happens is you're more likely to make a mistake calling off your stack/missing value when you create a checking range here. 99-JJ are pretty much not paying off river because when you check this A, its hard for you to have a bluff because if you had 6high or something like KQhh, you should be bluffing the A. Also if he has a heart draw, if he's a thinking player, he probably checks back a lot & just realize his equity for free. Most players arent spewy enough to yolo bluff turn/river ime

Which is why I will sometimes (not always) check turn and bet river as a bluff since I am "obviously" repping something that is trying to get value from 99-JJ.

C-bet is 53% on flop and 49% on turn.

Cbet turn is too low, needs to be closer to 70% because atm people can profitably float with ATC and stab turns.

As for the hand, as suggested above a mixed strategy of betting/checking here is best. We definitely shouldn't be saying because we want to bet all our bluffs here, we want to bet a merged range here (especially OOP), we should look at our value range and compare it to villains calling range then decide our bluffs. People way overbluff A/K turns so it comes quite profitable to x/r or float wide here. For this reason as both of you said, we should check back some of our worst bluffs here so we have some bluffs OTR here along with some Ax which we can bluff catch comfortably.

Thanks for you post.
Turn c-bet% may very well be too low to be optimal (I don't know), but I don't agree with you saying people can auto-profit against me by floating flop and stabbing turn with ATC.
I'm obviously not giving up every time I bet flop and check turn.
As far as you know, my crai turn% after having c-bet flop and checked turn may be 100%.

Yeah my bad, you're right I should have said we have to defend about 70% of the time.

looks like a trivial second barrel (for value) from here

glgl

By betting small, you can get value from: JJ, TT, 99, T8s, 98s, 87s, 86s, K8s.
You would lose to: AK-A2, or 88.
And you'd get a bunch of other stuff to fold: 77-44, 22, 65s, JTs, etc.

If you check, it looks weak, so I assume that even the TPWK hands like A4 will bet for value, hoping to get called by middle pairs. I also assume that there will be some bluffs in your opponents range if you check the turn, because even a rather tight opponent knows this ace following a dry flop and cbet is a GREAT situation to bluff. So you'd have to call a turn bet.

By betting, I think you're going to get called by more hands that beat you than that you beat. It doesn't seem like a good idea. It does kind of tip your opponent off that your hand is mediocre, but not so mediocre that you aren't willing to call a few bets, so you aren't too vulnerable.

I think checking is the right play. It will keep the pot smaller. It will induce a bunch of bluffs.

Flop bet isnt very thin? What about 6 $???

Anyone?

.

Flop sizing will depend on your strat, but $6 is probably fine. I would go half-pot in this situation.

Good posts, but you're a little incongruent here. Are we worried about players realising equity or barreling turn and river with any two?

I think my concerns are similar to yours in that when we check this turn we can end up very face up (since all our bluffs want to fire) as having exactly pairs worse than Ax. I'm really not sure if that means it's better to develop a decent checking range or bet everything. Since villain will float a lot of Ax on this flop, our range is very much in a wawb spot.