SB: $52 (104 bb)
BB: $130.26 (260.5 bb)
MP: $100.64 (201.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
MP folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 7 6 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($7.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.50, Hero folds

Villain: 22/14 160 hands. Hes a solid reg so far so we have no reason to believe that hes a fish.

I would need a very solid read to have a reason to fold here, especially after you x/c flop.

Also think if we're x/cing flop we should bet river. The fact that V bets flop but checks turn says to me the'yve picked up some SDV so will be checking back a lot. Maybe that's wrong tho

Why are you c/cing flop?

@ rikk

I think the 5 improves his bet, xbh range quite alot. Hes mostly doing that with 88,78s,89s


@ sinnaJ

To protect my callingrange here with a hand that I cant go 3 streets with. Doing that from time to time seems reasonable.

I would prefer to bet flop with this hand for value/protection vs. TT-88/7x/6x/OESD/GS/BDFD/BDSD and 3 overs that compose 90-95% of V's range.

If you need to balance a check range, I would check some frequency of {AA,77-66,76s}. Adding combos of JJ doesn't strengthen our check as much because of the overs. I would only check this hand if I wanted to merge a large check range.

On extremely dry boards H usually should cbet small with a very high frequency for value and equity denial. V's range is full of weak hands that must fold or float and either option is a good result for H. Some Villains will fight back on these boards against weaker players but this is an overplay. His positional advantage isn't enough to warrant much aggression with such a massive range disadvantage from being capped. We have overpairs where he has A/K high.

If you are merging your check range then folding this hand to b/x/b on this runout doesn't make much sense. The purpose of x/c flop is to x/x/c or x/x/b here so your strategy appears unreasonable. Adding hands that x/f only weakens your flop x/c range.

It is unlikely 50NL regs are getting exploited by this line because it appears that you're expecting V to over-bluff flop and under-bluff river which seems strange.

If you feel like it is the correct line then you can compare the EV of betting and checking middling overpairs on dry boards MP vs. CO/BU and CO vs. BU in your hand history. If there isn't much difference I wouldn't have a problem with checking sometimes for range deception.

Aren't you getting the desired result by checking the flop? You appear to have given up. If I'm your opponent and get checked to all three streets I'm betting with all my air to steal the pot and valuebetting TT/88, 9x, hands...maybe even 7x. If I were the BTN and got called by JJ I would have **** my pants when I saw your hand.

Really bad fold on the river.

c/c seems fine OTF.
However, if u choose to do this OTF, I think u need to call 100% here since u are underrepping ur hand.

Since u played hand so passively, V has ''lots of'' bluffs because ur range seems so weak.

Im having a hard time assigning him bluffs that hes checking the turn behind with to reopen the river again.
With "lots of bluffs" nobody is doing that.
Could you guys define a bluffing range for the river ?

I would need a solid opponent related reason for c/cing this spot.
The guy i have 160 hands on and who appears to be leaning to the passive side (22/14) just does not get me thinking about strengthening my c/c range.

And, as others pointed out already, if i aimed to do that i would likely not choose JJ for it.

Correction, I failed to notice an 8 made a straight. Misread the river entirely. Fold actually makes sense.