Quote:
Originally Posted by Jzo19
well obv OP 3bet 4.5x villains bet with the intention to cut implied odds and make it easier to stack villain postflop i just think he should have raised a lil bit more would make things easier for OP postflop(pretty much getting a decent SPR for our hand whereas we get a semi bad SPR for our hand)
1)We've got an SPR of 7 with a big pair against a very loose opponent, that's pretty much exactly where you want to be.
2)If we raise to 18 as you suggested our SPR is a little under 6, not that huge a difference but may get villain to fold more hands.
3)Who in their right mind raises a 3.5BB open to 18BB?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ispiked
So, here we're assuming villain pushed and we're going to have to call $100 to win $200. You get the $100 from (win - $ to call), not $ to call.
Unfortunately, I did make a pretty big error and that's that:
needs to be:
EV = equity * total pot - $ to call
Here's the simplification:
EV = x*(total pot - $ to call) + (1 - x)*-$ to call
EV = x*total pot - x*$ to call - $ to call + x*$ to call
EV = x*total pot - $ to call
So, again (correctly):
0 = x*+$334.50 - $133
334.50x = 133
x = 40%
So, we'd have to be good > 40% of the time. (It's just the pot odds.)
You're making your EV calculations needlessly complicated and messy. The value for total pot you put in is wrong given the initial equation.
For this:
"EV = x*(total pot - $ to call) + (1 - x)*-$ to call"
to be correct, total pot has to be 467.5 and not 334.5 which you put in at the end.
The equation you want to use is:
EV = (how often you win x how much you win) - (how often you lose x how much you lose)
So for the breakeven point:
0 = Y(334.50) - (1 - Y)(133)
so Y = 28.45%
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekos
if it's not accurate, it's worse than nothing
This isn't true. Any information carries a lot of weight because of bayes' theorem and conditional probability.
We're not going to completely decide decisions based on incomplete information but we can use it to sway decisions one way or the other.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvdgaag
I'm not sure how fishy villain is, but it's quite obv Hero has an overpair a big part of the time and he's still betting out. He has hero beat at least 90% of the time imo. fold.
I think we better check the turn and bet/call the river. We have no more than one pair and I think there's a lot of crap in his range besides draws, I wouldn't worry too much about giving a free card myself.
Now we:
A) Keep the pot small when we are beat
B) Keep the hands we do beat in his range on the river
C) Get value from a lot more rivers since for all he knows we might have missed with AK/AQs
Betting the turn >>>>>>>>> checking the turn.
We're very likely to have the best hand and villain will call with tons of worse hands.
The board is wet and we may give him free cards when our hand isn't a lock (I agree this part isn't a big deal though).
Why go for two streets of value when we can get three?
Last edited by RedJoker; 12-22-2007 at 08:25 AM.