............................what do people think SB's range for coldcalling pre is? this is not good at all. I'm completely mystified by this thread. did anyone run this through a solver? or even just count villain's combos by street? you can't analyze hands by just saying what "seems" good or bad.
first of all he's going to be way overcalling turn so that bet is not good in a vacuum. he's supposed to fold some flushes, decent amt of Qx there, and that's never happening.
second, he's not even supposed to call all of his 66 combos OTR, and that's true even after locking turn node to call all Qx+!!! needless to say basically all flushes are supposed to fold river. I've tweaked the assumptions generously several times (eg looser SB coldcall, no flop raises) and as far as I can tell it's impossible to find a scenario where jamming the river isn't clearly losing in theory and REALLY REALLY losing in practice.
only 88+ and 8x are supposed to take this line. although you aren't supposed to be betting anything this large on the flop anyway, and it's possible that flop is even a 100% x depending on how tight he coldcalls SB. exploitively this is even more true as it's hard to find runouts on this board that he isn't overcalling vs your sizing. SB reg coldcalls just play vastly different than BB ones.
here are the EVs for AK jamming river if we assume he calls Qx+ on the turn, NF+ on the river (remember I mentioned turn bet is bad in a vacuum already, so is river):
here is the range he is actually supposed to call river with: