Is it too nitty to fold here? I couldnt think about what value hands he would likely x/r the flop with but in hindsight if he wants to get it in he does need to look for a raising opportunity at some point...

Villain is fairly standard reg but breakeven over 1k hands. WTSD 35% and WSD 42% so nothing stellar.

PokerStars - $0.16 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 125.13 BB (VPIP: 30.06, PFR: 22.11, 3Bet Preflop: 11.17, Hands: 997)
CO: 46.94 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 162)
Hero (BTN): 170.31 BB
SB: 225.63 BB (VPIP: 23.42, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 119)
BB: 130.75 BB (VPIP: 44.64, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 113)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2 2

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 9 A 2
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 5 BB, fold, UTG raises to 12.63 BB, Hero calls 7.63 BB

Turn: (34.75 BB, 2 players) T
UTG bets 23.25 BB, Hero calls 23.25 BB

River: (81.25 BB, 2 players) K
UTG bets 86.25 BB and is all-in

Calling all day, 7 days a week and twice on sunday.

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Ok, thanks man. Out of interest what do you think his range is for doing this?

I think his range is quite limited here.

AA or 99 is the only hands you are afraid of. Both hands match his betting pattern. AK and AT are other hands he might have, that he plays like this.

Since you are calling him on every street on a dry board, he must put you on a solid/made hand as well.

I don't think this is a clear call, but i would have real difficulties laying it down.

Yeah looking back i do agree with your ranges Johnny, at the time I was hoping it was AK but for some reason I think he would be more likely to cbet flop with this than x/r?

which sane reg is ever c/ring AK or AT on this flop?

He pretty much reps AA or a sick bluff

Not many, i agree. I was just trying to find some hands that he might play like this that we can beat. Apart from the bluff.

I don't think AT is x/r flop but AK might at some frequency from this guy. Also think V's stats indicate he might open A9o and play it this way, along with other 2ps. I think we've just got to be calling more than 99 here.

If we want to make a nitfold we can use worse 2pairs imo

Ok so let's hypothetically say there is an argument for folding, (fwiw I think there is but I can see the rationale behind calling too.) When should we consider folding, only by the river or once he bets turn can we actually start thinking about it here?

I think his range is pretty narrow (AA,99,A9s). I can't think of any bluffs that would take this line on a dry flop. If my range is correct then river should be a fold. If you have any relevant postflop notes or stats it would be helpful. Stuff like raise flop, how often he barrels, river aggression can give some insight into his range.

Easy call lol. He gives us basically 2:1 so we need 33%. We lose to 6 combos, and I don't expect villain to take this line with 99 that often. Villain can definitely sometimes take this line with AK sometimes and sometimes A2s/A9s if he has them here.

How will he play 99 most of the time? c/r ace high flop and bet out turn+river seems pretty straight forward to me...

Fold pre.
This is often AA.

Pre: Fold
Just for the sake of not making herofolds, i'd go with it and call turn and river. But his line stinks and i agree we probably see a lot of higher sets here. If he has two pair, he is overplaying them insanely and that is something lots of players do at these stakes (or even play AQo like this!). You just cant tell what a random player is doing.

Therefore im falling back on not folding the top of our range. Top of our range is 99, then 22 and a couple of A5s-A2s and ATs+ (and even AA once in a while?). Since we are close to the top of our range, its an easy call.

Make a note of whatever he had, we are not exploited making this call. It says a lot about his mindset if he checkraises and fastplays with topset on the dryest flop ever.

Wrong, dont think a recreational player is even thinking about what he's repping, so neither should you.

You can throw that assumption out the door, only because how villain played this hand.

Just because he's repping something doesn't mean he thinks he's repping a hand or range. That's not what that poster was trying to convey.

We should literally never have two pair here. We 3-bet AK pre. We should be checking ATs otf or folding pre. A2s and A9s are folds pre.

READ, thx.

Ok thanks for the responses folks. Don't have stats in front of me for post flop but pretty sure is wasnt that aggro or likely to X/r much.

Just for clarification those saying fold pre, are you bring serious? If so I am keen to know the thoughts behind that. If I figured I was likely to be squeezed by the blinds then I probably would but otherwise figured we have to call. Thanks

I would be 3b or folding A2s but A9s is in my flatting range, maybe that's bad actually.

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Think we don't really need a big X/R range here. Best hand to do this would be AA but we don't have it. I would rather do this with 22 which doesn't block any of his b/c range. Villain can have a lot of Ax which can take a TB. I'm not saying we never X/R 99 but think it's probably a mix of x/r and cbet optimally.

There is no way this is anything but a snap call.

+1

I don't know why everybody is giving villian 0% bluff range? wtf?

Now, I didn't say call or fold in my replies itt but try to find a bluff on this flop, turn, river. Also, it's not like we need to be good .01% of the time. Even if we give him a few combos of bluffs, it's going to be extremely close.