50nl Zone Poker on Ignition - No Reads

fold
UTG1[me] raises to $1.50 with A8 ($90.88)
UTG2 calls $1.50 ($73.00)
2 folds
BB calls $1.50 ($19.44)

FLOP: 42Q pot $4.75

BB check
UTG1[me] bets $3.00
UTG2 calls $3.00
BB folds

TURN: 42Q8 pot $10.75

UTG1[me] check
UTG2 bets $5.87
UTG1[me] calls $5.87

RIVER: 42Q89 pot $22.49

UTG1[me] bet or check?


Pre is a bit wider than I normally open from UTG1 but the BB is on a 40 bb stack and we have a few deeper stacks behind.

Flop could go either way but the board is pretty dry and I hold the nut draw with over so I fire about a 2/3 PSB.

Turn check/call seems standard OOP? Picked up a pair and we have the nut flush draw.

River is where I'm a bit torn between bet or check/raise. I don't think UTG2 is terribly strong. His turn bet was 1/2 pot and we're a bit deeper so I expect him to bet bigger with strong hands. Had he bet larger on the turn I may lean towards going for a check/raise. What do you guys like...thoughts on all streets welcome.

What hands would you get to the river with taking this line?
Are there any hands you would turn into a bluff by donking?
And what bet-size did you have in mind?

(I would play pre, flop and turn the same btw. Without the pair I would bet turn.)

A flush draw, JTs, and top pair.

I don't really have any bluffs on the river.

If I bet the river I'm probably going around 50-60% of the pot. I don't anticipate getting called too often with bigger bet sizes. I think when you lead in this spot you're value heavy and it's kind of obvious if the opponent is mildly good at hand reading.

This river is great river to represent a flush and check raise bluff, and ofc nut flush is perfect hand to protect your check range and check raise get value from all other flushes straights and even sets. Look to bet with lower flushes that could be in trouble if money goes all in and they are against nut flush.

Villain has more flushes in their range since you'd barrel most of your flushes here so we need to check. Also it serves as a good x/r rather than donk as we get more value from flush over flush.

Agreed, flushes fit his preceived range more than mine. But I have the flush which means it's likely that he hasn't one. If he called the flop cbet and bet when I checked the turn then he probably has some type of hand with showdown value don't you think? Obviously flush vs flush is still possible. JT would make sense.

So if I block his flush combos, most likely being Ax, then more often than not we're hoping if we check he turns a hand with showdown value into a bluff?

Edit: I assume he has some showdown value because he called my cbet in a multiway pot. Not expecting random floats in this spot.

He has sets, two pairs, straights, flushes all things that should bet for value. Do people only bet nuts? Is this PLO?

The only straight is JT and only one combo makes sense JdTd. Other than that what two pair can we assume on a Q42 flop? 89 folds on the flop and why would Q9/Q8 call pre? 44/22 are the most likely set combos. I suppose 99/88 could float the flop but it seems unlikely with three to the flop and UTG2 isn't closing the action when he calls. I think he has more top pair hands and flushes than anything else. I also think sets bet more on the turn.

Just because things dont make sense to you does not mean they are impossible. People show up with all sorts of crap. JTc also might be a creative call.

Thank you for your well thought out analysis. With that...

[IMG]https://i0.wp.com/lastbustopluto.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/******.jpg[/IMG]

>So if I block his flush combos, most likely being Ax, then more often than not we're hoping if we check he turns a hand with showdown value into a bluff?


Who is going full ****** here me or you who does not protect his checks and thinks his opponent has no value bets on that run out not to mention bluffs. Also I want to have bluff raises here so I need to have value here also.

Dude please...how many times have I run into JT in this situations or set of QQ with bluffs and value. Makes sense? No.


Pot is small. I have the nuts. I want to get money in. How to get money in? By check raising.

Makes sense to me. I guess I'm ******.

Blocking flush combos doesn't mean we should donk, if we do it still means when we check we have no flushes in our range.

You're talking about balancing ranges in a game I already stated has no reads so there's that. Also I'm not supporting one action over another. At no point have I stated what I did. I'm talking through the merrits of each possible action. So when you say do "this" or "that" the logical thought is reviewing the action to a certain point and figuring out what range of hands make sense and what route makes the most money. When you say a person can have two pair because people show up with random stuff or they float undercards in a three way pot in the middle of the betting action I'm not going to give it much weight because it's not that probable.

I'd probably bet the river. In Zone, I've just seen so many people float pretty light, bet the turn to try and pick it up, then not follow through on the river. I just want to make sure I get value with my nut flushes here.

It does make it pretty hard for you to have flushes here when you check, so maybe we should be playing a mixed strategy here.

If you bet what sizing do you like?