$.25/$50 on Global
VILLAIN Cutoff: $87 174bbs
HERO Button: $50 100bbs [HOLE CARDS 5
6
]
Preflop: LoJack limps, HiJack limps, Villain raises to $2.75 from CutOff, Hero three bets to $7.50, folds to villain who calls.
[Pot $17.50] Flop Q
8
3
Villain checks, hero bets $7.25. Villain calls.
[Pot $32] Turn J
Villain checks, hero bets $13.50, villain raises to $87 and is all in, hero calls.
I miscalculated my pot odds on the river because I looked at the amount in the pot even though I didn't have villain covered and $37 of the pot wasn't in play for me. In reality I was calling $23 into a pot of about $79. I need 22.5% equity to continue and I'm probably a hair short of that. I'm right around 20% equity against top pair hands, but if he had a pair with a club or a set then I'm drawing thinner, and if he happens to have a bigger flush draw like A
10
then I'm in really bad shape. So as played I think I need to find a fold on the river.
This lead me to believe I made a big mistake as I have heard time and again it's horrible to put yourself in a position where you get jammed on and have to fold your equity. But in reviewing this hand I wasn't sure where that mistake was.
Maybe the turn should be a check back? I thought villain might have to fold some more hands on the turn, and I was getting a good price on my bet. But the pot got so bloated preflop that for me to get stacks in by the river required 40% pot sized bets on all three streets, and maybe that gives him too good of a price.
Should I be sizing bigger on the turn? Giving up on the turn?
In this case Villain had 8-8 and held. I walked away feeling like he kinda sucked out on me because he wasn't getting a great price to set mine, and he's going to have to be defending a marginal hand out of position against a lot of pressure. My gut tells me that when he makes a set he's usually getting 1-2 streets from me (often just one), and when he doesn't he's going to have to fold most of the time and occasionally pay me off when I have him beat.
I just think he's risking a lot of his stack pre and post flop either set mining or hoping for a cheap showdown or a bluff catch. I think had this been a standard 3x open and 10bb three bet it's a pretty easy call, but due to the limpers the bets got bigger and I think it was too wide. Or is 8-8 a standard defend since we're CO vs Button?