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2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD 2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD

07-20-2017 , 12:54 PM
Is this line ok to take? V's WTSD was on 20%, so rather low.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 40.5 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (SB): 115 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.94, PFR: 3.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
UTG: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.79, PFR: 20.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 81)
MP: 67.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 5.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
CO: 112.5 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 12.79, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 88)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A T

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 9 8 4
Hero checks, BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BB bets 9 BB, Hero raises to 31 BB, BB calls 22 BB

River: (76 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 77 BB and is all-in
2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD Quote
07-20-2017 , 02:54 PM
Bet the flop.

As played you're repping a super narrow value range on the turn (basically just QT and J9, since I expect you bet the flop with sets/98) so players may be inclined to look you up light. It doesn't help that hearts also missed on the river - a smart villain will realize your range contains a ton of whiffed draws.
2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD Quote
07-20-2017 , 03:24 PM
Betting flop and c/c flop both seem fine to me. If you c/c or c/r flop with some portion of your value hands, then I assume you need to c/c flop with overcards at some frequency. If you bet your value hands on the flop, then you probably just range bet this spot instead. Not sure which one is necessarily better; I just think they're both defensible.

Turn c/r seems a little thin. There are enough draws on the turn that I don't think villain is going to fold too much immediately to a c/r (either in the sense that we can have a lot of draws in our turn c/r range and so he calls us lighter with value hands or that he himself can have a lot of draws that aren't folding until they miss on the river).
2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD Quote
07-20-2017 , 09:18 PM
I am OK with the x/c on the flop.
I don't like the turn x/r. Villain is a nit, so we might have a to time bluffing him here.
With a 20% WTSD and it being a nit, I don't like the river shove at all. Villain will be making it to the river here with a pretty strong range. I think we are losing a ton here.
2nl: all in bluff on the river with missed SD Quote

      
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