if villain ever uses ahx combos as a bluff we have to call, and if he ever has a set we have to call. do we just close our eyes and click call in this spot?

He can have lots of kx of hearts which beats us. What ahx can he have that gets to the river? Probably just a9 right? Think it's a fold.

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Definitely call
He might valuejam worse

I think V jams otr worse all sets the flashdraw is backdoor and he propably not scares it so im waiting all set combos shoves some Ahx as bluff so he shoves with much combos who we are much ahead..I think close your eyes and call

I mean, KJ/JJ maybe. Sets probably raise turn. Straights only make sense with hearts, which beat us. I dont think there are enough worse hands, but maybe you can list them.

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Yes sets should get raised on turn a lot. Does not mean that every NL16 player will do this. We have 0 Info on villain. Might be a fish, might be a reg we dont know. Against a nitty reg i am folding here.

Still, he has about 10 flushcombos max - that is if he flats and double floats most AhXh below AQs. So if he ever bluffs or valuejams worse we are fine with calling for about 35% needed equity.

We are obviously not happy about calling here.

Theorywise our hand should not be too far from the top of our betting range as well.
Not that it really matters to be unexploitable here - just a thought and a good guideline vs unknowns

consider this, V has to think he can get an unknown to fold a flush if this is a bluff. People are pretty sticky at micro stakes. If this is spew, V has to be a maniac and nothing says that so far. People play their hands face up on the river. Jh is probably the worst card in the deck for kj or jj and he still shoves. I dont think we are good here 1/3 of the time. I hear you, i just think its too optimistic.

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I'd assume the majority of players at 16NL are x/r turn with sets, if they're not x/r turn they're unlikely x/r one of the worst rivers. Yeah occasionally villain may be crazy and x/r sets here but how often does that actually happen at 16NL.

Also if villain is x/r with bluffs here they aren't expecting flushes to be folded. If anything at 16NL good regs will likely realise that people are overfolding river raises because people assume 'all micro players are sticky so lets overfold'.

As for OP, I think villain will need to be turning Ah9x, KXh into bluffs here to call. Obvs villain dependent but I find people aren't creative enough with bluffs on this river and are far more likely to call with blocker + pair hands.

thanks for the responses guys, so basically it is villain dependent. fwiw he was a reg and jammed pretty quickly so guess even though there are small considerations it is less likely hes bluffing, so just fold I guess?

I am definitely valuebetting worse than a flush on the river and you should too

Looking back at this while this should be a call in theory, general player tendencies might warrant a fold here.
Even most bad players might be scared of this flush and most people on NL16 wont be good enough to ever bluff here

Fold otr, this is a very nutted line. You never really show up with a T here when you 3-barrel this runout, so mainly your betting range otr is flushes. You don't really have any bluffs here either, so even from theory pov you're towards the bottom of your range here and it's okay to fold. Regs will not value-raise worse on this river, ever. You only beat a bluff, and at micros even low-stakes, if you can't beat any worse v-bets, then fold.

+1

We should be betting our best two pair, sets, straights (T7s) and flushes OTR BTNvsBB so 54s is actually pretty high up in our range is definitely a call in theory. We probably have to defend some 2P/Sets with best blockers too.

I agree with T7s, but two pair is just way too thin Btn vs Blind, there arent even many bluffs we can have here at all so any most regs are just folding a bunch here. We can prob value bet sets but even that is thin because two pair or other sets that would bluff-catch here would have raised somewhere most likely before river. Also he has some 7x here as well. We have to be better >50% when called for it to be value bet and I dont think betting two pair we get >50%. Im all for thin value but unless the BB is a whale, Im checking back two pairs and maybe sets if the reg has low WTSD

How wide our value range shouldn't be dictated by how many bluffs we have here, if we don't have enough bluffs we aren't bluffing enough turns/rivers, or we aren't turning bottom of our range (includes some SDV) into bluffs.

Did you misread HH, 7x isn't a straight? You're somewhat contradictory though as if villain raises best two pair villains range is weak (not many BDFDs here as % raise turn) so we should value bet 2P.

I agree two pair is thin, don't think we are missing out too much EV by checking but I'm confident betting will be marginally better. But missing a value bet with sets here is definitely a mistake imo.

Calling all the time

Huh. I thought there was 4 to a straight for some reason lol. But yeah I'm v-betting sets+ here, imo two pair is too thin and regs will overfold this spot with bluff catchers