No reads on villain, thoughts on how the hand is played?

iPoker - £0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 110.9 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 45.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4 A

fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 2 5 T
SB bets 4.2 BB, Hero calls 4.2 BB

Turn: (14.4 BB, 2 players) A
SB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (34.4 BB, 2 players) T
SB bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

Taking a quick look are we not low down enough our range to fold?

Think I'm folding here, most hands villain bets here are better than ours and there is not enough bluffs (especially at NL10) to make the call profitable in the long run.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Would 3b pre at some frequency, especially if he has fold button vs 3b. Also would raise flop

Folding river, it's an extremely bad spot for him to bluff and you block some straight draws/FDs with 4d

I agree w raising flop, just didn't want to do it vs unknown on site where most players are quite fishy.

OTR I felt the majority of the player pool are checking most Ax as they're so damm passive and it's such a good card for our range, so thought villain is repping FH only here (which I block). The 4d isn't a great card to have (one of the worst I'll admit ), but IG I though villain is just way too polarised for me to fold here.

Do you think this hand is good raise flop? We can fold flop.

I think it's okay as a raise flop. We are surely overfolding flop though if we are folding all our gutshots, especially our Ax ones, and say we weren't it's a good spot to float OOP here and play turns.

c/r flop. It falls nicely to ur c/r range as u wanna c/r good hands and some semibluffs here.

Folding river AP

Hero is in position.

silly me

I'd call this cbet.
If we hold the Ad, I'd raise, since there would be good turns to barrel with.

Not quite sure if this hand is good hand to raise cbet... thoughts?

With our sdv and on a semi dry flop im not auto raising here.

If bluffing V will be quite polarized OTR, but then he might be never bluffing there

Normally I 3b this pre and leave all my suited aces to call down in situations like these except for the lowest ones

I'd assume V is unlikely to value bet combos that tie or L@SD to A4o so I would agree that we are bluff catching. V usually isn't balancing his value range with enough bluffs to induce H indifference with bluff-catchers at 10NL and I would probably fold to exploit.

From his perspective, I don't see any hands that we're folding that are going to W@SD. He's probably expecting calls from Ax or better, and JJ+ 3b pre so our next best is Kxdd unless he expects 99-66 to call turn. Bluffing us off these types of hands isn't how unknowns generally play and most V's usually aren't 3 barreling bricked draws when the board pairs anyway.

For balance, it's hard to say.

We have all 80 combos of Tx and GTO probably call/calls often while V probably isn't barreling Tx often so we should have a huge range advantage and I would be confused if V had a betting range. We don't really have that many worse hands to fold or balance with. This hand blocks potential Ax calls and our only other bluffs are diamonds that block folds, so I'm assuming we're supposed to usually fold this (?).

Just because they're polarised doesn't mean they're not bluffing?

Thanks for spending time on that reply
This is similar to what I thought, villain shouldn't have many trips here so should be checking a lot therefore when betting villain is repping FHs. Clearly Ax is better than 66-99 here as we block FHs. In theory we probably are defending our Tx and our Ax with best kicker, in terms of blockers, so mine would be a fold in theory.

It's a weird spot as villain doesn't really want to bluff here as what are we folding, but doesn't have much value either. I also think people will bet closer to pot with FHs OTR, expecting calls from Tx, so maybe this puts enough bluffs in villains range that we can call.

if
ɪf/Submit
conjunction
1.
introducing a conditional clause:
synonyms: on condition that, provided (that), providing (that), presuming (that), supposing (that), assuming (that), on the assumption that, allowing (that), as long as, given that, with the provision/proviso that, with/on the understanding that, if and only if, contingent on, in the event that, allowing that
"if the weather is fine, we can walk to the village"

I had somewhat similar toughts to Hex, but then I drop that and look at the board and the avg villain and think that you should fold vs population even more so

I understand the word if.

So you're saying if villain is bluffing, they will be quite polarised so may never be bluffing? It makes no sense. I know the average player pool doesn't trip barrel bluff enough but it doesn't mean we can't call when their line doesn't make much sense

Just change the word "so" for "but"

It still makes no sense, stop being cryptic lmao.

"If villain is bluffing, they will be quite polarised but may never be bluffing." If villain is bluffing, they're bluffing lol.

Second "so" hahaha

Villain is bluffing -> they are polarized
But it's 5nl, probably villain is not bluffing on a runout like this.

Is what I meant

And he should be bluffing at a relatively low frequency anyway

On paired boards there are bluffs on micros, maybe more than is correct.

What do you mean by "he should be bluffing at a relatively low frequency" ?
He should be bluffing according to betsize that is bet/(pot +bet+bet), exactly the same as H should call.
Or do you mean you have a read V bluffs less than a theoretical frequency?

You already answered that question...

I don't know what the exact bluffing frequency should be (neither do you) but the amount of value hands that get to the river is relatively small, so his bluffing frequency should be lowish as well and he should probably mix in quite a bit of x/c and x/r or something.

Also, don't think that them 5nl regs will turn too many hands into a bluff here, which I base on nothing more than some off the shelve psychology (zomg, what if he has Tx)....

I don't even know what you mean "On paired boards there are bluffs on micros, maybe more than is correct.", surely you don't have anything else than some anecdotal evidence.

Instinctively I'd say this is a theoretical correct fold, and if it's not (ie, close) I still think you should fold because of aforementioned.

I can try to work it out soon, should be a cool exercise