[10NL] AI Flop MiddleSet OOP ? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[10NL] AI Flop MiddleSet OOP ?

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08-15-2017 , 11:09 AM

Maximator

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 24

Hi

BTN VPIP 20/PFR 16/HH 70
SB VPIP 37/PFR 23/HH 86

Here how do you play this hand ? Because when I want to do allin on flop I need to be good 62% of the time. I put 4.76 to win 2.85. Right ?

I don't want to check here because if vilain checks back a lot of cards are bad for me.
But if vilain calls only with set + I am not in good shape. Even if he calls with DP+ I only have 42% against his range. And I don't know if he is gonna fold a lot here. He would probably call with OVP and TP, FD as well.

Winamax, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37810754

Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
MP: $10.60 (106 bb)
CO: $10.38 (103.8 bb)
BTN: $5.61 (56.1 bb)
SB: $11.60 (116 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

2 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.75) J

(3 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN raises to $1.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $3.86

Turn: ($11.47) Q

(2 players)
River: ($11.47) 6

(2 players)

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08-15-2017 , 11:23 AM

Rikk

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 2,140

I don't think there is ever a flop where I'm not getting it in with a set for 56bb.

I'm not sure about the flop donk because it's not part of my strategy, but once you do you can't fold, and there's no point letting V see a turn when he has so little behind.

Last edited by Rikk; 08-15-2017 at 11:28 AM.

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08-15-2017 , 11:57 AM

pokerforumposter

adept

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 856

your math is wrong, you are winning the entire pot including your bet and his, not whats already in it, so you need like ~40% equity. Just gii, you beat top2, 77 and the occasional bluff or overpair if its a fish. Even if you are behind you have 34%.

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08-15-2017 , 12:10 PM

JamesBJames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,791

I'm pretty indifferent between calling PF and squeezing.

Postflop's fine IMO. I almost never donk postflop and would probably still try to c/r this flop, but villain is admittedly checking behind a lot of his range on this texture multiway. The flop hits our range very well and there are a ton of turn cards that kill our action, so I don't hate donking. No idea how we balance it properly, but maybe that doesn't matter at microstakes.

Shoving flop as played seems super standard.

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08-15-2017 , 12:20 PM

hehexd

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 179

Assuming V is never folding, you'd need 4.76 / 11.47 = ~41.45% equity.

Giving V a calling range of {JJ,88-77,T9s,T9o}, we have ~38.34% equity and V must fold 12% or more to break-even.

Does V raise anything more than {JJ,88-77,T9s,T9o}? Because if he has at least 25(0.12) = 3 other combos in his range, our shove is +EV.

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08-15-2017 , 05:56 PM

Maximator

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 24

Thanks for the answer.

I don't know vilain so i can't know his exact range. Thanks for the maths I was wrong.

I don't think he will have some bluffs here because he does not seems to be a good player and we are in 10NL so imo he is not going to balance all his ranges. But maybe he could be a little bit merged in value something like TPTK for example and folding to a reraise.

So you are right it seems to be a shove. But there is something that I don't like here : our shove is never that much EV+ in this situation...

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08-16-2017 , 05:07 AM

AltoZZ

adept

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 796

3bet pre and get it in. You smash his BTN open range and u make immediate profit if he folds (which is greate result).

OTF: I don't like donking, but mehh.. definetily c/r because u have numerous draws etc on this flop.

AP all in obv.

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