Hero is on the BU and open-raises 57 to $2, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: KJ9
BB checks, Hero bets $3.4 into $4.5, BB calls.

Turn: KJ9J
BB checks, Hero bets $8.4 intp $11.3, BB raises to $28, Hero calls

River: KJ9J4
BB shoves all-in $68 into $68, Hero gets 2:1 and does what?


Villain is unknown. From the BB he shouldnt have called 99/JJ/KK pre. He might even 3-Bet some J9s and KJ, he might also 3-Bet most AdXd. He may raise 2pairs OTF. He for sure has many better flopped flushes but also many Ad/Qd but does he ever bluff the river with these often enough? Would it be reasonable for him to call the flop and X/R turn with these?

What are we doing OTR? What would GTO do?

Pre is fine and flop is good.

Let's take a look at the turn first. A check raise on the turn is a pretty strong indicator that the villain has a really good hand here. When the board pairs, what do you beat that someone would check raise you here with? Only hand I can think of that you're ahead of is AdJx(maybe he does this with QdJx), everything else crushes you and you're drawing dead.

I would rule out KK also due to pre, but I see most people in micros flat with 99 or JJ so I'm not ruling those out. Same with Adxd. Most of these people are stations that like to only 3-bet with KK or AA and sometimes AK/QQ. KJ obviously is a big concern here too.

As played, are we good 33% of the time here? How often is someone shoving with trips here with a flush and straight potentially made?

I like villain's line as a bluff if he did have AdJx because it's unlikely you have a set at this point due to just flatting the turn and you can't really call with much.

YOLO call.

I can't say for sure but I think this GTO would say to fold because after your turn call you're very very low in your range since you have a bunch of combos of better flushes + all boats.

I'm folding the turn. Villain has so many house combos and this is a really weak flush anyways. Easy hand to toss and not feel too bad about.

He can overplay Jx/QT and he has many combos as reasonable bluff candidates and he will c-c at least sometimes his fulls on the turn (or c-r smaller) and he probablty c-r at least some of his J9/KJ/99 on the flop.

Go smaller on the flop.
Fold river.

thanks all! I think these are also somewhere in his range that he wont just fold:

Ad9h,Ad9s,Ad9c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ad6h, Ad6s,Ad6c,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad5c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,Ad3h,Ad3s, Ad3c,Ad2h,Ad2s,Ad2c

How would he be ideally playing these?

Overall I tend to agree with the people who think its a fold OTR. I think he just doesnt have enough bluffs in his range.

With all those hands with the Ad, he can check-call or check-raise the flop. Check-raising the turn with just the bare ace would probably be quite bad though.

+1

It may not be a question of bluffs as much as over valuing Jx or QT. How often does that happen?

I definitely bet smaller otf.

I understand when people are stations and are calling you down with QT or trips, but to check raise the turn on this board with anything less than the nut flush is insane.

I guess if hes capable to overplay Jx or QT then it becomes a call. The oppinion here in this thread is pretty polarized. I guess in the end neither folding or calling is a big mistake!?