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Except that in your scenarios there are solid programs in those locations. People largely ignore Hoosier football here, so I just kind of expected there to be some fans bleeding in from surrounding big fanbases like there is with MLB here.
This isn't ISU, and you are in Hoosier country. Do you really expect people not to be passionate about their Hoosiers despite having a less than stellar program? South Bend also isn't even close to Bloomington.
MLB isn't even comparable. There is no state team for Indiana. You are going to get Cincy fans, prob some Cleveland fans, Cubs fans, White Sox fans, and Cardinals fans.