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Old 01-02-2013, 12:14 PM   #2501
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

you are greatly underestimating the difficulty of having to be the entire offense and throw over 600 times compared to making about 400 shorter and safer passes which will obviously lead to better numbers on a rate basis.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:19 PM   #2502
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

I'm pretty surprised to see Luck way up the list like that. I don't know the formula that calculates WPA but it obviously has to have a leaning toward gross numbers if it's putting Luck that far ahead.

This link that compares the two in eight common opponents they've played seems that it would have some value.

Luck does get asked to do a lot more though.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:37 PM   #2503
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

think that article should mention that luck faced four of those opponents in his first five games while wilson played all but GB (at home and he was terrible) in the later part of the season

obviously its not wilson's fault that he has a much better defense and running game that wins games for his team and its possible he could perform just as well as luck given a bigger role
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:44 PM   #2504
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelo...74/andrew-luck

If you look at his game logs, there isn't the obvious progression during Luck's season that you see in Wilson's, so it doesn't look like it's meaningful what part of Luck's season you sample numbers from.

It does skew things a bit to have the sampling draw from Wilson's second half so much, but the numbers in the comparison I linked in the above post are also pretty damn lopsided so I don't know how effectively that overrides them.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:45 PM   #2505
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

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Originally Posted by LKJ View Post
I'm pretty surprised to see Luck way up the list like that. I don't know the formula that calculates WPA but it obviously has to have a leaning toward gross numbers if it's putting Luck that far ahead.

This link that compares the two in eight common opponents they've played seems that it would have some value.

Luck does get asked to do a lot more though.
this isn't exactly a popular stance but i remember reading once about how as long as they are throwing "smartly", having more INTs is like a better indicator of young QBs potential. because if they are still making smart throws then those INTs are going to be things they get used to fixing (like fitting the pass into a tiny gap more accurately)

which isnt to say wilson will turn out poor just because he hasnt thrown many, (and i havent watched a ton of Luck) but i'm going to assume Luck is generally making "smart" choices with his throws. and if i had to pick one of them to be the next brees/manning/brady it's like 80% Luck 20% Wilson. like, Indy is conditioning him to be great, whereas carroll is conditioning Wilson the same way harbaugh did with smith earlier this year.

ETA: 1st year TD/ints -
Brady - 18/12
Manning - 26/28
Brees - 17/16
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:55 PM   #2506
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

Meh. I get a lot of Luck here and some of his picks are pretty reckless.

I'd still trade Wilson straight across for him as a long-term investment; that was never up for debate. I can't really say that I'd rather have Luck for this immediate playoff run though.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:55 PM   #2507
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

wrt more interceptions you could just say that they are passing more. his int rate is right around average at 2.9% which is where eli/rivers/romo/brees all were this year too. with the exception of the rodgers/brady/peyton elite thats where you can expect to be with his passing volume
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:06 PM   #2508
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

Russell WILson isn't even good.

Free Matt Flynn.
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:09 PM   #2509
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

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Old 01-02-2013, 06:39 PM   #2510
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Re: Sports Containment Thread: Sponsored by G.I. Joe Pavelski, Real American Superhero (ELIte)

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Russell WILson isn't even good.

Free Matt Flynn.


I'm pretty sure you're just trolling, however saying Russell Wilson isn't good is just ignorant.
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