So, yesterday during a cash game two guys at the table (after going back and forth for almost an hour) decided to bet 10k on when the bubble will burst in this year's Main with the 50k starting stack.
One of them kept asking me and another guy to confirm that the over/under that they were close to agreeing on was fair. I kept stating that with so much money on the line, that I did not feel comfortable confirming the fairness of their O/U.
With blinds starting a bit higher this year and antes kicking in a level sooner and of course the higher SS. I find it tougher to predict the bubble bursting.
My two cents is that it will happen in the last level of day 3 (2.5k-5k blinds) or the first level of day 4 (3k-6k blinds) but I don't really know.
They ended up making the O/U the last hand played of day 3. But the guy that picked the Over, had to bet 11k to win the other guy's 10k.

Thoughts ???

Avg stack at bubble burst will be 375k. I would take the over in this spot, since I don't think the bubble will burst with avg stack at 75 bigs. Seems a pretty fair bet though.

Love the Day 3 side here, especially with the better odds.

The average stack at the bubble will be 333,333 (or lower, if there are less than 6667 players). That said, I still like the over. When it was 300k avg. at the money, the bubble seemed to mostly burst at the 2500/5000 level. The extra 33,333 seems likely to push it to 3k/6k.