I used to be a mid-stakes reg on alternative sites (not Pokerstars) in 2012-2013 with an ok roi of 20-30% for ~$15-20 ABI. I also won some small live tourneys in my country. I stopped playing afterwards and got into the tech world.

I am quite comfortable now and I would like to give myself a present and participate in the next WSOP Main Event for fun. I am curious what do you guys think of my theorhetical ROI could be just on the top of your head?

Am I a small negative loser in the field? slightly positive? Obviously open-ended guesswork here

If its for fun, I wouldn't worry so much about your theoretical ROI, especially since calculating it for a live event with no history would be difficult, and even more so because results from a single event, or some small number of events, are unlikely to match any preconceived expectation. Just budget your bankroll such that losing all of it won't hurt (at least not much) and go and have a good time. If 10K is a lot to blow on one tournament (and given the fact that on a normal day, the best players in the world will only cash about 20% of the time), you could spread your bankroll out over a number of smaller events or satellites. There are tons of great value options in Vegas during the summer at all sorts of price points. Check back here starting in February or March as summer schedules start coming out. And, of course, if playing the Main Event is what would be fun, rather than just playing a bunch of live poker events, then by all means, by into that, cross your fingers and have fun.

Just for the hell of it, I'll make a guess: you are slightly negative right now , mostly because you figure to be rusty after missing so many years. If you have a chance to practice a lot though before the main, I think you have the aptitude and knowledge to be solidly positive in the main.

yes thanks akashenk and AtrainBoston, indeed I am only interested in playing the Main Event just for the fun and prestige of it you know, all the years I was grinding online I was fantasizing about it. I am going to do it anyways, I just was curious about what you thought about being positive or negative would be cause I have no idea about the average playing skill in such an event.

Mathematically you are trying to extrapolate to 1 instance in a high variance environment. It's pointless. It's similar to asking "Do you think playing 3-9-7 is a good choice in today's Pick-3 Lotto?"

Why not get a feel for your present position vis a vis wsop poker and play a few of the smaller events around town before the main ? It won't hurt and hopefully not affect your desires or bankroll and at worst it would be good practice before the main. Practice does make perfect.

that is totally wrong thinking. you always have a theoretical expected EV in every bet in life and it doesn't matter if you do it only once. the paradigm in the lotto has a -EV of a small % according to each country/organizer and so has a roulette throw etc.

In general terms, I would say the ME has a weaker field than other big buy-in events at the WSOP and beyond, however its quite a bit stronger than it was in years past. There aren't nearly as many truly bad NLH players anymore. You might see one or two at your table, but you are more likely to see a few pros and certainly a bunch of players who at least have some clue what they're doing. That doesn't mean they don't have leaks you can exploit (even the pros). Its just not as easy and not as obvious. And of course, even if you are so fortunate to be at a table against some real fish, that doesn't mean you will be successful in taking advantage. Cards matter.

Since you have to get through about 6000 players just to cash, table draw and table break will have a lot more impact on your results than whether you are a slightly positive or slightly negative EV player. That's part of the luck.

So, again, It may be interesting to contemplate what your mathematical advantage or disadvantage might be. But its kind of pointless in this case since you have so little to go on. And in the end, your decision to play or not really has nothing to do with EV anyhow. You want to do it for the experience and for the fun. So, go do it for the experience and the fun and worry about EV when you decide to quit your job and go pro.

Thanks for the insight. I did the opposite in 2013 (there was a big thread in DC forums) when I was thinking to continue making money as an MTT grinder full time or jump to a highly paid tech job which I did and never regretted

For someone who might go and either grind low limit cash or play $75-$500 tournaments, where is the most value? What time of day is best for the staggered 100-400 buyin type MTTs some lesser venues offer? I'm aware of the Colossus and things like that. Might even play a 1k or 1500 WSOP eventually, but I'd want to grind out some smaller MTTs or satellites first.

As always, value means different things to different people. If you're looking for the biggest prizepool for your buy-in, there are quite a few events in the high end of your range ($500-$600) throughout Vegas at The Venetian, Wynn, PH, Aria, Golden Nugget and elsewhere which have large guarantees or expected field sizes. These tend to be multi-day events, though there are some dailies mixed in, if you're looking for faster tournaments. There are also lots of daily events in the $100-$400 range, some of which have guarantees.

Each year Kenny Halert (of 2016 November-9 fame) compiles a spreadsheet which contains lots of info about events throughout vegas during the summer. Here is the thread from this year...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/65...edule-1644058/

Assuming he will continue to provide this service next year, you can use his spreadsheet to compare tourneys at various dates/times of day and pick the ones that look most appealing.

If you're interested in looking for results (field sizes, payouts, etc.) for past events, I often use Hendon Mob...

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/festival.php?a=l#

This might give you an idea what certain events are like, but of course, take it with a grain of salt since things do change year to year.

do it

played for the 1st time this year and it was an awesome experience