We just bust the bubble (10 paid) and will play out the rest of the tournament 10 handed.I lie 2nd of 10 with 330k at 4k/8k/1k ante.Chipleader (villain for the hand)has about 950k with total chips in play at 2.05 million.
Very first hand of 10 handed ft : Folds to me on the btn, I min r to 16k with 89ss, bb chipleader 3 bets to 40 k,I call. This for me is just atrociously bad.CL is good, aggressive thinking player and knows I shouldn't be defending wide here given ICM implications.He will be 3-vetting here a lot and barreling off putting extreme pressure on me.However, it is the river that I have the question about.
Flop(94k) 10hJs3s. Villain bets 38k, hero calls
Turn(170k) 7s. Villain checks, hero(251k behind) bets 53k, villain calls.
River (276k) Ac. Villain checks quickly, hero tanks and shoves AI for 198k.
[Villain snap calls with AKss and ships pot.gg me
]
I know this is a pretty sick cooler but in reality is shoving river the best play here?
I think given the way the hand has played out, villain cannot call my shove with many worse hands. KQ, 89suited, all spade hands have gotten there by the river.I think he has to fold all sets here.
IMO i think 70-90k value bet on the river is best and puke fold to a shove(Although he was deffo the only player left who could conceivably bluff shove the naked As.My river bet would look so strong though that i dont think he can bluff here
)
Any thoughts on the hand are much appreciated.