Looking for input as to the ROI for a good but not great top 10-20% tournament player in a tournament such as the $1500 millionaire maker this weekend. It seems to me that with the current state of the game many people buying pieces with markup are getting the short end of the stick. Then again I could be wrong due to the 60 minute levels. Ill be spending the whole month after the millionaire maker deciding whether there is enough value for me to play the main event.

These ROI's based on 2010 main event. Will be slightly different now that 15% of field is paid. 2x average player means you are twice as likely to win the event than a random player. The allin % means if your avg. allin win% matched that number, you would have corresponding ROI. ie if you could get allin as a 52.77% fav. on average, you would be 2x as likely to win a tournament and have an ROI of 41%.

All in % 7319 Players WSOP
50.00% Average Player -6%
52.77% 2x Average Player 41%
54.47% 3x Average Player 80%
55.70% 4x Average Player 117%

However, you need to run DEEP to realize these ROI's. note below how low your ROI is if you never make some top finishes...

Average Player ROI If :
WSOP
No Top 3 Finishes -19%
No Top 9 Finishes -38%
No Top 18 Finishes -44%
No Top 27 Finishes -46%
No Top 36 Finishes -49%

2x Average Player ROI If:
WSOP
No Top 3 Finishes 16%
No Top 9 Finishes -17%
No Top 18 Finishes -27%
No Top 27 Finishes -31%
No Top 36 Finishes -34%

3x Average Player ROI If:
WSOP
No Top 3 Finishes 45%
No Top 9 Finishes -1%
No Top 18 Finishes -15%
No Top 27 Finishes -19%
No Top 36 Finishes -24%

Note here, as 3x avg. player with ROI of 80% overall, you would have a -1% ROI if you never make a final table.

4x Average Player ROI If:
WSOP
No Top 3 Finishes 70%
No Top 9 Finishes 12%
No Top 18 Finishes -5%
No Top 27 Finishes -10%
No Top 36 Finishes -16%

And lastly, how often you would finish in top positions in years. Ie with 7319 player main event, as a 2x avg. player you would make top 36 once every 134 years..

How often in years of expected finishing positions:
7319 Players Top 3 Top 9 Top 18 Top 27 Top 36
Average Player 2440 813 407 271 203
2x Average Player 1329 482 255 175 134
3x Average Player 931 356 194 136 105
4x Average Player 723 286 159 113 89

This is an unusual and interesting way to looks at roi. I wonder at what point does increasing all in ev result in lower roi. E.g. The old men that get blinded off and only three bet ak+ surely have the highest all in ev and very low tourney roi.

I kept track of my allin % from online poker before black friday. After about 2,000 allins I was averaging 58% allin edge. But I was only winning 56% of the time. (about 434-1 against to run this badly) With a 56% win rate my ROI was 30%. If I would have won at 58% like I should have, my ROI would have been 60% based on the payouts of the MTT tournaments I played.