What are the chances another major player decides to run Independent/3rdParty? That could easily decide the Clinton/Trump winner. Are the chances nil for that very reason? For example, if Sanders ran anyway, it just hands it to Trump so therefore he wouldn't?

A rare event happened, therefore a rare event is likely to happen again isn't the soundest footing. That said, people were materially wrong about Trump in the primary and incorrectly underestimated his chances in the summer of last year, but sharp prognosticators were all over Trump after he won SC, even if some people still want to claim that the result after IN was some sort of shocker.

Things people were wrong about:

1. They didn't trust the polling. Part of this was that in 2012, rogue candidates could capture the polling lead temporarily, but then it collapsed in relatively short order. People should have seen sooner that Trump's polling wasn't going to follow this pattern when he held the lead for so long stably. In the general election, the polling is currently quite ugly for Trump. It's a lot more reasonable to say Trump is a dog when he's way back in the polls than it is when he's leading them.

2. People were wrong about "_______ will be the end of Trump." Whether the comment on Mexican rapists, McCain not being a hero, banning Muslim entry, etc. The mistakes here were twofold. One, these kinds of statements, while massively unpopular with the country as a whole, are part of Trump's core appeal in the primary electorate. Two, Trump has absolutely no regard for truth or falsehood. That's not to say he doesn't lie or doesn't tell the truth, it's that he doesn't care at all. He just keeps talking. Herman Cain in 2012 felt trapped when caught in conflicting statements, and that was when he started to come unraveled. Trump just keeps going harder, or spouts something different that he hopes will play better. This can work for him when people have bought into his core appeal (the racist statements) but don't care as much about policy details they don't understand. If Trump doesn't look trapped, his primary voters won't think he is, either. In the general election, there aren't many more people who'll latch onto the racism who have not already, and there are more people who care about policy, or at least something else to latch onto if not the racism.

3. People were wrong about how the other candidates would treat Trump. People thought the other candidates would gang up on Trump to show he was a buffoon, and his support would collapse. Well, that didn't happen. Instead, isolated candidates would take shots at Trump, and then Trump would **** all over them. The other candidates enjoyed the boost in support as they picked up some of the wake of the collapse of the candidate who got **** on, and they'd let someone else be Trump's next target. And then there were 3. This isn't an issue in the general election. Hillary knows Trump is going to bully her. She can also use surrogates that Trump will **** all over to no effect (see Trump's recent Twitter tirade against Elizabeth Warren). Trump never lets an attack go unanswered, so if Hillary can keep having safe Democrats fire potshots at Trump, Trump is going to waste a lot of his time ****ting on people who have nothing to lose instead of ****ting on Hillary.

At this point, virtually zero. I think some states' deadlines for ballot access have already passed, or at least they're so close that trying to get enough signatures to qualify is an uphill battle. The only option would be a 3rd party running not to win but to try and play spoiler, but that is mostly fan fiction at this point.

I guess you weren't in California during the governor recall election. Schwarzenegger had a vulgar mouth he never apologized for as well.

You cannot claim that a man who has support from Mexicans, Muslims, and Women is purely winning on racism and sexism.

Trump's appeal is that he is an outsider. If you can conceive of that Occam's Razor, this whole thing would make much more sense.

DING DING DING! People are angry and fed up with the status quo and this is why Trump (and Sanders) have made so much noise. Many people just don't want anymore politics as usual. It is definitely time for an outsider although I am not convinced Trump is the right one. A Ross Perot type would run away with this thing.

But this election is gonna be fought on the internet with all of the vitriol and misinformation that the internet breeds. Trump is very adept at using this approach and it has helped him get this far. Big media opinion makers are dinosaurs as is the donor class and its probably never going back to the old ways.

I was in California then.

This is pretty obviously false. Did Nixon's Southern Strategy not happen because Nixon got at least one black vote somewhere?

It's not that simple, though. Why Trump and not Carly? Both are rich outsiders who'd run companies into the ground, but one of them won the nomination, and one of them struggled to make it to the adult's debate and then still did nothing.

Trump was already a well known and colorful celebrity.

Many people are so sick of the ultra-PC culture and worrying about offending 1 single person and "everyone gets a trophy!" that his unfiltered abrasiveness is actually refreshing and welcome to them. Not so much what he says (the racist overtones suck obviously) but the fact that he doesn't care that he says it. That's another feather in his cap.

Exactly. Trump's success almost completely revolves around the fact that he is the anti-PC, outsider candidate. Now granted, the subset of the population with some racist leanings is going to be more likely to gravitate towards such a candidate than others, but it really seems way off to suggest that's the base of his appeal.

The thing is, it's hard to know what Trump really believes or what he'd really do in office. He seems to be a master at telling the mob what they want to hear and his supporters aren't really strongly united by any particular ideology so his positions shift all over the place depending on the mood of the twitterverse is that day. I don't think even his supporters necessarily agree with half of what he's saying, but they just love that he's rattling the cages of the establishment more than anything else.

Right. Certainly most racists will be voting for him. But they're just a subset. Not all of his supporters are racist.

Depends on your definition of racist.

Most of us have race based prejudices, stereotypes and assumptions that aren't really correct/kosher. This is kind of the point of the PC movement by the way, even though you might find it annoying.

Plenty of people that don't use the N word or burn crosses on lawns still hold racist opinions and beliefs.

It's definitely not the case that racist are only a small minority of this country.

He's also a know-nothing buffoon who got wrecked in the one debate that wasn't about petty insults.

This seems like you're pretty much conceding my earlier assertion, that Trump's supporters are in for the racism. Oh, I'm sure very, very few of Trump's supporters think of themselves as personally racist, and I'm sure most of them know at least one black and Latino person that doesn't bring out feelings of hatred in them, so they know they can't be racist themselves, but doggonit, what this country needs right now is a leader who is out there spouting a bunch of racist rhetoric (that Trump's supporters describe as "speaking the truth," btw).

That's just silly. You really don't think any of his supporters think half the **** he says is wrong?

Of Trump supporters, in a recent PPP poll:



Why do so many Trump supporters say that they support him because he speaks the truth if they actually think the racist rhetoric he spouts is false?

I think a large percentage don't give a **** what Trump says. They don't believe any politician anyway. (correctly?) They reason he is saying what he must to get elected. Then he will just make common sense decisions based on some ephemeral idea of good for the country rather than good for the politician.

Uh, Hillary for president?

Wookie, do yoi honestly think Obamacare turned out good? Let me give some examples.

Where I used to work, they would have, by law, been forced to pay for health care. They fired the entire warehouse crew and made them sign up with a temp agency. They got partial care and those who didn't get fired got nothing. This is entirely legal.

I currently work in a restaurant. These low paying jobs absolutely will not give full time work because they'd be required to give health care. Obamacare is about 20% of my take home, and the premium is so bad that I'd be completely decimated if anything happens to me. I'm not buying because I can't afford it, plus I have to do other part time work to make ends meet.

There is an entire start up industry committed to dealing with the maze that is Obamacare. A company cannot call Anthem and say "give me valid insurance." Quite literally, HR and the industry itself cannot Alford the expertise to deal with it.

Yes, parts of it need to be altered and repealed because it didn't hold up its promise to take care of the people who needed it.

Holy hell. People who are obviously racist would vote Hillary over Obama. You even had people bitching because Obama isnt black enough.

Yes, people have a right to be pissed about NAFTA and people have a right to be upset that they are passed over jobs at MacDonald's because they aren't bilingual. They are okay to be pissed that minimum sentencing laws have decimated the inner city population yet let the rich white coke heads get rehab.

People have a right to be angry that you can buy fake IDs for $10 at McArthur Park and it is okay to be concerned about porous borders.

Just like you, I'd prefer the language to be less crass, but I'd be hard pressed to believe you have zeeo empathy for the other side.

I don't know what that means.

Hillary is the very example of a politician most people don't trust even a little bit.

Because they don't believe what she says?

Yes, I think Obamacare was an improvement, and everyone knew going in that young healthy men would not necessarily be better off.

What? This doesn't make any sense. Most of the people who vote based on appeals to racial animus have been in the GOP fold for decades after being courted actively. Those who remained in the Democratic party did indeed vote for Hillary over Obama. There just weren't enough of them for her to beat him, because most of them were instead voting for McCain or some other Republican in the primary.

I'm on board with anger about mandatory minimums, and some anger from certain people about NAFTA is understandable, even if Trump's solution is really bad for a lot more Americans. But since when are Republicans angry that people who aren't qualified for jobs don't get them?

Voter ID laws are racist. Full stop. Anger about porous borders is usually, at best, misplaced, and it's frequently less about checking who comes in and more about keeping the brown people out.

Sure, there's some sympathy from me, but I have much more for the people those people want to attack.

I'm nearing 40 years old, been in the hospital twice for heart issues, and have a list of injuries and other conjenital conditions too long to bother listing here. But as a taster, arthritis in my ankle and hands, broken ribs, deaf out of one ear, poor eyesight, knee issues, etc.

Thanks for playing. Try again.

Do you know what racism is? Do you honestly believe that Democrats aren't full of racists?

I'll tell you this much... some of the very people you gallantly defend hate you... Because you are white.

So people are now unqualified to push brooms and flip burgers? What is this universe that people aren't qualified to do work that can be taught to people with Down's Syndrome?

I was talking about the open exchange of fake IDs and identity theft, so not sure where this comes in, but feel free to explain yourself.

Absolutely disagree. Perhaps you ought to visit the county jail and get an idea of what's going on there. Not everyone who comes across is chasing rainbows

And actually, I don't think everyone knew going in that anything would happen at all.

Obama stumped on Euro style health care, then rammed through a convoluted snakes nest with tons of loopholes that are actively hurting millions lower income people, which incidentally include minorities, women, elderly people, and many others that do not include healthy young men.

Thanks for dodging the post.