Quote:
Originally Posted by p3rc4
Why are there people offering bets for themselves in this thread of mine?
In addition, if you think the bet is unreasonable in any way, please offer alternative lines instead of plain hating and being idiots. I think most of you are underestimating the difficulty of making it through these minefields.
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I commented in your thread initially, then deleted them and tried to PM you but your box is full. Since you ask for alternative lines, I'll offer my thoughts:
If you define a HU FT as 4 players, holdem FTs as 9, mixed games and PLO as 8, and 6 handed games as 6, and 4max and mixed max as 4, and take last year's field numbers (post black friday, I assume numbers are going to be down across the board, so last year's numbers are a pretty conservative estimate) and roughly estimate changes for events that went from 10k to 5k, etc. and you exclude the $1mm one drop, seniors, ladies and main event then:
If you play the 40 "best" events, an AVERAGE PLAYER would expect to make a FT 57% of the time. (Drops to 56% if you define HU FTs as 2) Since you obv will be playing some big field nlhe and skipping a couple events here and there, and might fall short of 40, call it 45%.
Given that you are a sicko with a big edge and the fact that you can drastically alter your play on the brink of a FT because the 150k will be huge amount of equity compared to the small payout differences for a lot of the events, the true number of you making a FT is probably significantly higher. I'd estimate around 60-65% or so.
So, you laying somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1 is probably a reasonable bet. If you offered even money, I'd snap call you FTing, and if you offered 3:2 I'd take your side. At 2:1 I'd probably tank and then lean against you, but wouldn't be happy about it. If you laid 3:1, I'd pretty easily bet on you not doing it.
But in any rate, you getting 3:1 as an underdog is insanely off. 25% just isn't even remotely close to the ballpark of a fair number for you to FT.
Another thing I said in my post was that I met you at PCA and you seem like a good dude that likes to gambooool, so I assumed you were just making this thread looking for action and not bumhunting for a retard who would drop massive $ without doing any math whatsoever, so I hope my post doesn't come off as too critical.
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