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Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion

03-29-2012 , 11:21 AM
i really think it's sick that stars introduced so many turbos into their daily schedule, and rake them the same as their regular freezouts
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Wice
I dont like how people try to present the worst possible graph; I would start by trying to get more people in the sample (eg. choose top 100 p5 from 2011) and graphing turbos only (no hypers) at each buyin limit.

mtt variance is alot higher than people think, last i remember for reg speeds one standard deviation after 5k games is about 20%ish roi, so a 20k game sample is literally nothing for what we want to know (we want to guess a good reg's winrate to within 2.5% or so)

That being said, rake needs to fall in line with other products currently offered. MTTs is one of the few games where winnings exceed rakeback and that is just not true for the other offerings.

Currently, turbo 180s have 9% rake (okay, 8.9 something). Also, 6max hyper sngs have 4% rake (3.5% for highest buyins.) Some people suggested 5% for these turbos but im not sure if that is feasible.

However one thing that actually helps is basically this: high stakes are actually not a big money maker for stars. Surely sunday millions etc. rake it in, but a typical $109 has 300 players of which $2700 is "raked", but after paying rakeback maybe they only truly rake $2k. For a dozen of these a day, this is a drop in the bucket, so there is definitely movement of a couple % if it will relax pressure.

----

Here is what I would initially suggest:

$20 and under: 9%
$30 8.5%
$50 8%
$75 8%
$100 7%
$200 6%
Let's look at this graph again in a few months if you feel the sample is insufficient.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 05:03 PM
if anything those graphs just confirm what I already thought: lots of HS regs are awful at turbos.
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03-29-2012 , 05:13 PM
AWice says my sample isn't big enough. Fine. Let's look at the top 200 high stakes regs, as defined by the 2011 OPR "Diamond League" rankings, and graph their turbo results* in 2012.



*I'd like to see the same filters applied -- buyin $36+, <1k entrants, any scheduled turbo.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 05:16 PM
SharkScope doesn't appear to support a global alias with 100 screen names (I tried and their server crashed). I'll put together four separate aliases with 45-50 screen names each. We'll look at their aggregate results. It should be a much larger sample than 18k games, since we are adding in the first three weeks of 2012, and more than quadrupling the number of players included.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 06:03 PM
I just played 15 180-man turbos and lost $6.

I can now 100% confirm that the rake is too high.
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03-29-2012 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoGGz
if anything those graphs just confirm what I already thought: lots of HS regs are awful at turbos.
dont' get me wrong, this is certainly true...a lot of high stakes regs def suck at a lot of different aspects of poker


but the problem here is, when it comes to turbos...there's only so much you can do 'wrong'. you only have 10-15bb usually..a.nd these top 200 regs generally are gonna have an idea of what theyr'e doing with these stacks. sure, maybe theyr'e calling slightly too wide here or shoving too wide there. but these are minute minute mistakes. and when you only ahve 10bb to start the hand, that's really a tiny tiny mistake. if you're playing perfectly you're only capitalizing on this tiny edge. remember, the rake is 10% too, that's a big number to get over when your edge is so small

remember, if we have the top 200 regs who are not making money in turbos...and tourneys like the 109c turbo and 200 turbos barely get more than 200 people...where is this supposed 'edge'. sure, not every reg is playing ever day...but a lot of them are

and you say that these people just are bad, adn that's why they're losing...well then who is winning in these tourneys? are there 1 or 2 magical players that are playing them correctly and winning all the time and all the money? i def don't know of any



these high stakes turbos are often the equivalent of flipping a coin vs your friend. heads i win, tails you win...we bet $100 each flip...but every time we flip it we have to pay $10 to stars...someone runs hot for 10 flips and seems to be up, but int he long run it evens out...and sure, u may think you have an edge (cause you know, the heads side is heavier, so tails comes 50.1% of the time vs the 49.9% of heads), but only 1 person is winning int he long run (hint: it's not me or you)
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 07:22 PM
I'm not suggesting that the rake isn't an issue, but I guess some players just magically play better!
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03-29-2012 , 09:02 PM
Pretty good Post Gags.

I changed my shedule after reading this thread
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-29-2012 , 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TT_fold
AWice says my sample isn't big enough. Fine. Let's look at the top 200 high stakes regs, as defined by the 2011 OPR "Diamond League" rankings, and graph their turbo results* in 2012.



*I'd like to see the same filters applied -- buyin $36+, <1k entrants, any scheduled turbo.
I created 4 aliases (see explanation at bottom) and would like to present their aggregate results. We have to disregard their 2011 results as they may have achieved the high OPR ranking by virtue of running the best. So, I'm going to compare their results from 2010 with their results from 2012.

Things aren't as dire as my first graph might have indicated. Nevertheless, the edges in turbos are rapidly diminishing.

Remember, these results are filtered to: buyin $36+, <1k entrants, any scheduled turbo.




----------




opr2011n1 = Players 1-50 on the 2011 OPR leaderboard
opr2011n2 = Players 51-100
opr2011n3 = Players 101-150
opr2011n4 = Players 151-200
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 12:19 AM
Great work TT.

Hope PSBryan makes a visit in here to see the effort put in to showing these things.

+1 to lower rake in turbs plz.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:03 AM
1. why should pokerstars care about anyones roi in games that they play regardless

2. Doggz is right, highstakes regs suck at turbos

3. why should pokerstars care about anyones roi in games that they play regardless

4. you all way overestimate how important keeping you happy is to stars bottom line
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skittlebiscuits
1. why should pokerstars care about anyones roi in games that they play regardless

2. Doggz is right, highstakes regs suck at turbos

3. why should pokerstars care about anyones roi in games that they play regardless

4. you all way overestimate how important keeping you happy is to stars bottom line
It does affect stars bottom line... Regs probably make up the majority of these games. If their ROIs keep decreasing in them, they will stop playing them = less money for Stars. It might be more profitable to lower rake a little as it would draw in more players. For example:

With rake at 10%, you get 200 entrants in Hypothetical Tourney.
With rake at 5%, you get 410 entrants in Hypothetical Tourney.

Obviously these are made up numbers, but Stars would play around with the numbers to see what's most profitable for them. It's something that they should be doing constantly as the state of the games change, and it seems like they should at least be looking at it now for these turbo MTTs.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlevu
It does affect stars bottom line... Regs probably make up the majority of these games. If their ROIs keep decreasing in them, they will stop playing them = less money for Stars. It might be more profitable to lower rake a little as it would draw in more players. For example:

With rake at 10%, you get 200 entrants in Hypothetical Tourney.
With rake at 5%, you get 410 entrants in Hypothetical Tourney.

Obviously these are made up numbers, but Stars would play around with the numbers to see what's most profitable for them. It's something that they should be doing constantly as the state of the games change, and it seems like they should at least be looking at it now for these turbo MTTs.
but nobody is saying "i think i should stop playing these because the rake is too high" they are just bitching about the rake being high and knowing they will continue to play them anyway
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skittlebiscuits
but nobody is saying "i think i should stop playing these because the rake is too high" they are just bitching about the rake being high and knowing they will continue to play them anyway
You sure that's the case? Is there a way to see the field sizes for all these tournaments compared to 1-2 years back?
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlevu
You sure that's the case? Is there a way to see the field sizes for all these tournaments compared to 1-2 years back?
well to borrow from Shaniac in a different thread

"Have you noticed that turbo HS tournaments generally get bigger fields than non-turbos?

Stars has to meet the demand of a broader group than just 2p2 HS regs..."
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 02:53 AM
Yo skittlebiscuits you're frigging ******ed. Even if you would be right, why would you ever hamper efforts to reduce rake (for everyone) unless you would get some advantage from higher rake (which would basically mean you work for Stars which I doubt that is the case.)

Shut your pie-hole, stop being a moronic clone, and let these good people do what they need.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 03:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by busto23
Yo skittlebiscuits you're frigging ******ed. Even if you would be right, why would you ever hamper efforts to reduce rake (for everyone) unless you would get some advantage from higher rake (which would basically mean you work for Stars which I doubt that is the case.)

Shut your pie-hole, stop being a moronic clone, and let these good people do what they need.
please tell me what these "good people" are doing that I am not


seems to me we are all just wasting time posting on an internet forum
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 03:22 AM
Obviously we all want rake reduced but using a decrease in roi for food players as a reason doesn't make sense.
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03-30-2012 , 07:29 AM
great job TT_Fold.
first thing i see is that in 2012 there are 3 times more turbos than in 2010 (as seen from the sample).
So yeah in 2012 you only make 13$/game not 34$ but you play triple the amount of games so that you should win almost the same, BUT in 2012 due to the lower ROI regs will have lots more variance than in 2010 and it will be impossible to run at true EV.

Interestingly that the regs in the 2nd and 3rd tier have better ROIs that the ones in 1st tier.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 09:24 AM
Some really eye-opening graphs and stats in this thread. Many thanks to the people who put them together.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skittlebiscuits
but nobody is saying "i think i should stop playing these because the rake is too high" they are just bitching about the rake being high and knowing they will continue to play them anyway
I am saying it. 99% of the time I play at Stars only. With these numbers, there is no incentive to play things like the 109 2x, 55 2x, etc.

Why would you think ppl who play poker for living will keep playing something hat has a negative ROI and interferes with other MTTs?

This is not just a matter of lower ROI. It seems some of these games are truly unbeatable (even for the best ones) unless Stars lowers the Rake.
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-30-2012 , 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masterxcvt
great job TT_Fold.
first thing i see is that in 2012 there are 3 times more turbos than in 2010 (as seen from the sample).
So yeah in 2012 you only make 13$/game not 34$ but you play triple the amount of games so that you should win almost the same, BUT in 2012 due to the lower ROI regs will have lots more variance than in 2010 and it will be impossible to run at true EV.

Interestingly that the regs in the 2nd and 3rd tier have better ROIs that the ones in 1st tier.
Doesn't exactly work like that
Turbo Rake vs Normal Rake Discussion Quote
03-31-2012 , 08:36 PM
Solid thread , +1 for lowering the rake in the turbo mtts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave47
yeah i was thinking along these lines lol. Tons of euro sites have 10 percent rake on turbos/ superturbos
this is why most of them have a low trafic and small prizepools
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03-31-2012 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rsiatat


this is why most of them have a low trafic and small prizepools
nope
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