Villain has the following stats:
vpip: 16
pfr: 13
af: 3.2
wtsd: 48
IP 3-bet vs EP: 2 %
cbet 3-bet pot: 67 %

My preflop call is probably questionable since villain is only 3-betting 2 % against UTG open raise. When villain checks that flop behind, I'm totally convinced that he has got no Ace. When he calls the turn bet, I'm sure that he has a hand with showdown value. But his river raise doesn't make any sense to me. I can rule out AK since that would cbet the flop.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($10,608)
BB ($5,045)
UTG ($4,950)
Hero ($9,920)
UTG+2 ($6,160)
MP1 ($4,767)
CO ($4,685)
BTN ($4,567)

Dealt to Hero A Q

fold, Hero raises to $205, fold, fold, CO raises to $525, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $320

FLOP ($1,200) A 4 7

Hero checks, CO checks

TURN ($1,200) A 4 7 6

Hero bets $600, CO calls $600

RIVER ($2,400) A 4 7 6 K

Hero bets $1,300, CO raises to $3,560 (AI), Hero ?

So what do you think? Do I have a call here?

It costs you 2260 to call in a pot of 7260. I don't think you can get away from it here even though you're probably beat. I wouldn't be surprised to see a set take this line, possibly KK.

I doubt villain here is bluffing 25% of the time. Probably a lot lower. It's one of those situations where the odds look good but the typical villain isn't bluffing enough to make the call worthwhile. In theory, fold, in real life, I lack discipline and would call and watch him scoop the pot..

i think he has KK like 90% of the time.

AK is unlikely for other reasons, but don't assume it would cbet the flop. i check back these boards with AK all the time. #effbalance

fyp.

fold river, nh

Fold pre. Snap fold otr. You may probably even c/f otr to save 1.3k (unless you think he may 3b with AJ and stats don't indicate that).

yeah your hand is dominated by his range pf, fold to the 3bet

river is sick but he is never bluffing and has AK like 85% of the time and AA/KK the other 15%

stfu 11t ******

c/f otr vs that line?

lol no bet/fold if you get to the river

also hate all you want but your advice is terrible

The dynamics of this hand mean there is very little value to be extracted on the river when he checks back turn. A player with nitty tendencies from these positions 3bets a nutted range and we bet out of position on an A high flop.

I get where EP is coming from, because the only hands he bets with are KK and the occasional AK. He snap checks back QQ and JJ.

he never calls river w QQ and 3betting 2%.
After he called turn we're done with getting value idiot

c/f riv. he is checking back any pp that u win against and he isnt calling a bet with those either way.

edit: im too slow for them forum ninjas. greg and EP nailed it.

lol if you get to the river you need to bet because he is always checking his showdown value and the real question is wtf are you doing getting to the river with here when the best card in the deck hits because it decreases the amount of AK in his range

the real question is what are you doing calling pf, and why are you betting the turn etc...

if you get to the river here you should bet/fold because of sample size of stats and he might have spazzed with AJ pf but the reality is fold pf and if for some reason we aren't folding pf we should bet/fold this river.

and you can call me an idiot all you want, really doesn't affect me. take my advice or leave it but the truth is this: you aren't good and you are better off taking my advice.

so u are saying that op should fold AQ preflop but bet the river cause villain can have AJ in his range?

I'm saying if you are willing to call pf, you must be willing to bet the river and if you call pf and aren't willing to bet/fold this river you are just clicking buttons

^^ are u clueless?
you're right though about folding to 3bet
why nobody said that?

lol and what samplesize? do u know it?

+1

and keep cool, no reason to educate the trolls

well the reality is tha tunless you play 1,000's of hands with somebody you can't look at somebody's 2% 3bet and then say it is obv AA/KK/AK

BUT

it will put you in the ball park

Thanks for all your replies! I definetly agree with folding pre. I don't know what drove me to call, probably just auto-piloting. I only realised his narrow 3-bet vs UTG when I reviewed that hand.

When I see him checking back TT - KK here, turn is definitely a bet in my opinion or do you disagree?

I'm not really sure if the river is a b/f or a ch/f. If I bet small OTR I see him calling with worse pairs which he would normally check behind. But I guess my bet was probably too large.

If his range is wide enough you can call the 3bet then you should bet the turn and you should bet the river because the river combinatorically makes it harder for him to have AK in his range which is the predominate hand that beats you.

tbh if you take your stats at face value he doesn't have TT/JJ/AJ/AQ in his range and his 3betting range pf is like AK/QQ+ and you should fold to the 3bet and this is where the real issue is and what the real question about the hand is.

like you are asking about calling the river raise and the problem occurs well before the river and that is where you need to focus.

Thanks!

on 2nd look. yup
~975/f is optimal

Elephants pride your posting sucks, you either chill or take some time