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Price to ship a daily big

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10-25-2014 , 08:22 PM

#101

Kranke_EinZ

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 537

gl OP

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10-25-2014 , 11:58 PM

#102

timex

Bonafide 9

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,886

I didn't even know half of these bigs existed until this thread but a few people have linked me to it. What odds could I get against winning a big in a week? I'd happily take unlimited action at 14-1 and If I could get enough action I'd like to bet on this some time

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10-26-2014 , 12:13 AM

#103

Rowniwn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,091

I don't know why I would ever bet against timex but I'd give you some action at 14:1.

Only a sweat tho not enough for you to be worth it but I'm assuming a lot of people would be interested if you would make your own thread.

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10-26-2014 , 05:48 AM

#104

sunilcutm

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 204

hope op win this bet

gl gl

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10-26-2014 , 05:49 AM

#105

LebronB

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 217

This will be the new thing. gl op!

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10-26-2014 , 04:45 PM

#106

aseHigh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 11,883

Quote:

Originally Posted by timex

infinitely better odds for you instead of Matt (no offense )

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10-26-2014 , 05:02 PM

#107

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

haha so many reasons why I want to ship one of these things!

Red Spade Open one time, I want to see how many languages they swear at me when I flat out refuse a deal on the ft.

btw obv no offence taken ase :P

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10-26-2014 , 05:07 PM

#108

BakinC00kies

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,717

A tournament advertised as "special" doesn't necessarily qualify as a "daily big", no?

Not saying it shouldn't count, it even slightly decreases your chances to win this bet as it has a multitude of runners compared to the regular Bigger 55 on sundays - it might just not fit into the definition of tournaments contributing towards your bet

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10-26-2014 , 05:11 PM

#109

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

Quote:

Originally Posted by BakinC00kies

A tournament advertised as "special" doesn't necessarily qualify as a "daily big", no?

Well I'm 2k/13k right now so I doubt it's gonna be an issue, but I'd argue the point it's basically just a special Big 55.

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10-26-2014 , 09:53 PM

#110

GizYaChips

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,873

FWIW OP I think 25/1 give or take some equity was a fairer price. How are you going with this?

Bad math is the theme of thread but no one else posting math.

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10-26-2014 , 11:32 PM

#111

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

It's going OK thanks bud. No real near misses yet (think the closest has been like the last 3 tables or something) but I'm happy with how I'm playing which is the main thing.

I play a lot of live tournies and I think bad habits tend to creep in a bit when you're not playing online, so this week-long grindathon should hopefully stand me in good stead when I return to the live circuit in a couple of weeks.

Incidentally, sorry for the shameless plug but I'll probably be selling for WPT Nottingham in a couple of weeks if anyone fancies it

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=217713

edit - ps thanks for all the good luck messages

Last edited by OffTh3Radar; 10-26-2014 at 11:49 PM.

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10-26-2014 , 11:36 PM

#112

sw_emigre

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,671

For the 2.5 people on this thread who are doing the math, I'm curious if this is correct:

I'm using the 1/521 chance of shipping any tourney (for simplicity)=0.001919xxxx

So the not-shipping chance is 0.998xxxxx

63 tourneys (again for simplicity, all odds same 1/521) is
.998xxx to the 63rd power (9 tourneysx7days)= 0.886 against winning one.

So 11% to ship one? Meaning 9/1 is about the correct betting line?

(I'm not saying whether he should have held out for more, just what looks about right, mathematically speaking. But my last stats class was a generation ago...you damn kids and your drugs and rock and roll.....)

Last edited by sw_emigre; 10-26-2014 at 11:37 PM. Reason: spelling errers

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10-27-2014 , 12:54 AM

#113

GizYaChips

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,873

Yes I ended up using that same model of 1:521 for extreme simplicity and gave OP an 11.97% chance of winning the big $75 with a field size of 521 over 63 attempts.

Edit: Essentially true odds can't really be taken. Too much simplicity in our calculations.

Keep it going OP. Best of luck.

Last edited by GizYaChips; 10-27-2014 at 12:57 AM. Reason: Submitted too early. Fkn iPhone.

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10-27-2014 , 10:04 AM

#114

Pokerman12345

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,937

Even if keep it that simple, the big 75 is probably the smallest field of the lot.

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10-27-2014 , 05:48 PM

#115

beastjr

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,371

Quote:

Originally Posted by OffTh3Radar

See, people that put up reasoned arguments as to why I've got this so wrong are totally fine with me. Snarky ****ers like you are one of the reasons I stay away from 2p2 at times.

I've been saying all along I believe the bet is slightly -ev. If you want some action @14/1 let me know.

Think you misunderstood my post. Was basically saying wtf to anyone giving you a hard time for making a fun bet

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10-27-2014 , 06:36 PM

#116

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

Oh, ****.. my humble apologies!

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10-29-2014 , 01:17 AM

#117

deucesofclub

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 14,422

Almost boils down to probability of rolling a 6 when rolling a dice, in laymens terms..

Rolling 6 in 1 roll = 1(representing certainity) - Probability of not rolling a 6
= 1-(5/6)

In 2 attempts = 1-(5*5/6*6)
In 3 attempts = 1-(5*5*5/6*6*6)

So just taking Big 75 with 521 runners in 7 attempts

(1) - (520*520*520*520*520*520*520/521*521*521*521*521*521*521)
1 - (0.9866414172888038)

= 0.01335% chance to ship in 7 attempts...

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10-29-2014 , 11:09 AM

#118

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

Last day today, let's give pads a sweat at least

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10-29-2014 , 11:14 AM

#119

deucesofclub

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 14,422

Quote:

Originally Posted by deucesofclub

correction: its 1.335% to ship 1 in 7 attempts not taking skill into consideration..

Quote

10-29-2014 , 11:47 AM

#120

Danshiel350

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by OffTh3Radar

Last day today, let's give pads a sweat at least

GL.

Hope it's been a good week otherwise?

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10-29-2014 , 12:46 PM

#121

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

Good as in profitable? No, but could be worse

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10-29-2014 , 01:31 PM

#122

OurSurveySays

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 5,486

gl matt, kinda rooting for you

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10-29-2014 , 03:19 PM

#123

gettym

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 11,011

maybe shoulda made the bet to just FT a big

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10-29-2014 , 03:58 PM

#124

OffTh3Radar

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 650

yeah but that's boring :P

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10-29-2014 , 11:01 PM

#125

OurSurveySays

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 5,486

If you want Matt I'll do the same bet and do the 500-5k over a certain amount of tournaments. Give some action back for those who thought I was hustling.

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