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MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate?

06-22-2016 , 12:27 AM
Lol sample sizes, as stated before it can help somewhat to know where your making your most bb s but it's way too overrated in terms of looking at 50k hands n so many factors with mtt s that skew it,

I do believe what Chuck said about 30 abi holds some truths, but still think we need to be playing a lil more aggro in these current games
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote
06-23-2016 , 02:53 AM
You seem to be focusing on the wrong point, first of all my sample of hands after the update is not what I am formulating my claim on, it only helps confirm what I had already calculated to be true based on other factors. The probability that the evbb winrates have actually decreased x% when you have empirical evidence they have increased x% becomes increasingly less probable the larger the value of x is. My ev winrate has been much higher after the changes to the Stars MTT structures than what I was winning at prior so I can say with a quite a lot of confidence that evbb winrates have gone up, not decreased. If you don't understand any of what I am saying I suggest you fiddle around with:

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

and increase the observed winrate while decreasing the true winrate and look at the value for "Probability of running at or above observed win rate" and see how it begins to decrease as these numbers get further apart.
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote
06-23-2016 , 05:58 AM
As others have said your sample size is of negligible statistical relevance.

I'm interested to know what other factors you have calculated. My assumption is that while certain aspects of early antes may increase edges, the net effect would be strongly the opposite. My thoughts:

Pre-ante reg winrates were higher than post-ante winrates by a large margin. This is because effective stacks are deeper in the earlier levels, compounding the size of post-flop errors and creating less situations per 100 hands where regs will face all-ins with a lower skill edge (eg a preflop shove spot). From that alone I would assume the removal of anteless play would reduce edges.

Antes reduce the error of calling too wide preflop relative to facing a pre-antes open. If the population folds too much to your opening strategy in the very earliest of levels, this may be an incremental win for you. From experience this may be true preflop (smaller pots) but it certainly isn't postflop (larger pots). It may also be offset by the fact that effective stacks will reach shoving levels quicker, increasing the % of time during the tournament that you're playing with a reduced edge.

Antes reduce effective stack sizes and put more dead money in pots that go to a flop. This reduces the size of errors that involve calling or jamming, and increase the size of errors that relate to folding.

Finally, I doubt that Stars just made an array of changes to reduce edges only to inadvertently introduce a change no one was asking for, that had the opposite effect.
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote
06-23-2016 , 09:18 AM
basically post ante winrates have gone up bc of the first statement.
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:03 PM
Antes starting from first level was imo introduced to speed up game duration and lower edges regs have on fun players
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:18 PM
hmm...as i said the statement above i went to see my winrates with and without ante....seems im doing better(over big sample) with ante so idk
MTT bb/100 - What is a good winrate? Quote

      
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