Mindnumbing Probability Rant

[The Bear Jew]

This probably doesn't belong here, mods move it wherever if you wanna be dicks but my my friends are here so I'm posting it.

But I just went out to dinner with my dad. I have no money left. I just tried to sell back my car to dealership, they said they can't help. Just told landlord I can't pay on the 10th, but going on business trip and might not be able to pay.

I was discussing with my dad the EV and profitability of certain scratchoff tickets due to information available if given a bankroll and he was slow/didn't understand but slowly grasped it but then said he'd never do it because most people lose!

Ok....As many of you know I had a rough childhood. My mother ran the house and obviously didn't approve of me gambling. Stole lots of money from me. I had mandated gamblers anonymous with idiots do to a douchebag judge who ended up losing his judgeship trying to get his son out of a DUI.

I've even been to therapy, and I've tried to accept my dad/get close to him...but I still can't help but think of him as a Joe Paterno character. I have vivid memories pleading with him to be rational while my mom was on her overcontrolling/abusive ways, but this isnt' even about that.

My dad was very anti-gambling, and said he'd never gambling. I go, you're an idiot certainly theres a point. I go if Bill Gates said I'm doing a social study. We're gonna do a fair cointoss right here in front of you. Heads you have to pay me 1000$, Tails I pay you 1,000,000$ tax free. Do you accept this offer? He tank, said no.

I was in shock. I was offended. He is an anestheiologist. He is an MIT Grad. He is very knowledgable in calculus and advanced chemistry. He understands statistics very well. He makes 200-300,000 a year. He's lent me 10,000$ before! He has over 40,000 liquid. Makes good money. He has kids/pays for some of their colleges. But my god MY GOD! How can people be this stupid with gambling?

I was actually offended. I go, if this hypothetical actually happened, and you declined knowing the situation I'm in right now and you claiming you wanted to help me...I'd hate you for the rest of my life, just like my mom. He texted his girlfriend. She said no to the same thing.

After a lot of talking, I got him to accept 1000 vs 1million cointoss....after tanking..."but 100% no to 5000 vs 1million" and NO CHANCE if it were a 3 sided die where he loses 1000$ twice and wins 1million the third time.

This is a very intellectual man (or so I thought) This isn't the last of his money. This is just a negative stereotype of gambling idk. This is why I'm in my terrible position I'm in today. These are the idiots that raised me. Why can't I have understanding parents like ****ing timex/ 99% of poker players I know. Or even ones that understand/don't interfere. Why do I have parents that are so stupid that they literally say no to that. I can't even breathe now.

I gotta go now, just please, is this a generation thing. How can my dad be a doctor/MIT grad and be like this? Ask your parents? WTF?

[gollyheck]

lol

[Zima421]

I just asked my room mates friend (he is a young lawyer), and he said he would do it, but semi hesitated.


I asked him if he would do it if it was 5k to 5m, and he seemed very very reluctant to say yes. It took me about 1 min to convince him he should, but he still felt unsure about it.



he is 25

[kleath]

i wish bill gates would offer me that coin toss


If i lost id tell him he should run it back

[Disco Stew]

Of course, for someone who has the capacity to earn this amount or money or has enough liquid cash for it not to effect them, not taking that gamble would be silly. But it seems quite bizarre that it offends you. I'd just shrug it off since I know my Dad would say the same thing (also a doctor), but put the game in front of him he'd take the punt in a shot. I suspect it is some sort of generation thing though, or perhaps that he knows of your prior gambling problems and feels condoning coin flips for money would just fuel your problem.

I hope you get through this tough time though. As for gambling, only you can help you there. These GA meetings and therapists won't help at all without you having the desire yourself. GL.

[hukel 9]

I feel sorry for you. Good luck.

[gamboneee]

my dad is an MIT mba and once tried to argue that black jack was beatable and that tens come in pairs (wrt bj)

my mom is an MIT pchem phd and after talking to her over the holidays its clear she has no concept of expectation or ev.

[Ontario_Tory]

Originally Posted by Zima421

I just asked my room mates friend (he is a young lawyer), and he said he would do it, but semi hesitated.


I asked him if he would do it if it was 5k to 5m, and he seemed very very reluctant to say yes. It took me about 1 min to convince him he should, but he still felt unsure about it.



he is 25

Have to take into consideration the ability to afford the loss... If I'm offered 1k to 1M, I'm in. 5k to 5m, I'm in. 50k to 50m, I start to have to think about it. It's +EV for sure, I get that. But reality is that 50% of the time I owe 50k, and that'll sting.

OT

[LostOstrich]

On a recent drive I managed to get my 10yo daughter to lay even money that the next car we drove past would NOT be blue. Of course I ran ridiculous and the next car was indeed blue, which cost me the last jelly bean in the packet. But think of all the sklansky jelly beans I banked.

[JustASpectator]

I know it's tough to understand that something so obvious isn't universally understood, especially by the intelligentsia. But even smart people have leaks. A degree from MIT isn't a guarantee that you know the answer to everything.

FWIW my Dad (high school grad) snap said yes.

[Ontario_Tory]

I guess my point is that the fact that it's +EV is only part of the puzzle.

If Gates offered you 500k vs your 500k for the flip, would you do it? It's neutral EV... What about 490k vs. 510k? +EV, but is it worth the risk from your end? 400k to 600k? etc, etc.

Everybody has some comfort (or discomfort) with what they're comfortable to gamble with. Sounds like your father is on the extreme side of the pendulum - he won't risk money gambling, even if he can afford it / the math is "correct". You're on the other extreme - you're willing to risk money if the math says your risk is "good". I don't actually believe either of you is "wrong" here - just looking at it from a different PoV.

It's like the old joke:

Him: Would you sleep with me for $1,000,000?
Her: Yes!
Him: Would you sleep with me for $10?
Her: No! What do you think I am?
Him: We know what you are. Now we're just negotiating a price...


(& I believe that you're right - the fact that he's on that far end of the pendulum means he CAN'T understand this poker thing you do...)

OT

[broken_jia]

Originally Posted by Ontario_Tory

Have to take into consideration the ability to afford the loss... If I'm offered 1k to 1M, I'm in. 5k to 5m, I'm in. 50k to 50m, I start to have to think about it. It's +EV for sure, I get that. But reality is that 50% of the time I owe 50k, and that'll sting.

OT

Sell a piece of your action to the random guy standing next to you. You need to sell 0.2% to freeroll.

Too bad the average person doesn't carry around 5 figures.

Originally Posted by Ontario_Tory

Him: Would you sleep with me for $1,000,000?
Her: Yes!
Him: Would you sleep with me for $10?
Her: No! What do you think I am?
Him: We know what you are. Now we're just negotiating a price...

OT

MoneyTalks! Everybody has a price...

[Ontario_Tory]

I just asked my wife the $x vs. $1,000,000 question. She'd risk up to 5k. Anything more than that, she would be uncomfortable with the loss.

I told her I'd go up to 25k. Her answer was "that's a year's worth of University for our daughter".

When it comes to gambling, the math isn't everything...

OT

[bugstud]

and to think many people responsible for running the world are more close-minded than he is

[Cyluscylus]

A friend of mine has offered me the following bets in the last 6 months. Even money one dart bullseye. He shipped for 20. At a baseball game even money the guy at bat hit a home run. I think I won that one.