How often will villain behind us show up with ... - MTT Community

rh300487 · 07-12-2012, 09:28 AM

Lets say i want to shove KQs with 12BBs. Everyone has an equal stack and we are looking at cEV...

We are in the CO and expect people to call (avg) with the top ~9% of hands.

Is it correct to assume we get 75.36% of the time a fold?

His fold range = 91%, there are 3 players behind me;
= 91% * 91% * 91% = 91%^3 = 75.36%

Now if the above is correct (looking for confirmation?). If BTN would call with 8% of hands, SB with 10% of hands and BB with 12% of hands. Would it be correct to assume that, the math to see when they would show up with these hands, is'":

= 92% * 90% * 88% = 72.8%

Thx.

OMGClayDol · 07-12-2012, 10:17 AM

Yes barring the small effect that having blockers to any hands in a calling range will reduce slightly the probability of a villain having a hand to call with. So let's just say the 9% comprises 66+,ATs+,ATo+, that's 118 combos. Of those, if you have KQ, you eliminate 3/6 QQ, 3/6 KK, 4/16 AK, 4/16 AQ so 14, i.e. there are only 104 combos now out of a total of 1326.

The initial math assumes we are called by each person 118/1326 or 8.90% (2DP)
Now since we know two cards, total possible combos = (50 * 49)/2 (usually it's {52*51}/2) or 1225

104/1225 = 8.49% (2DP)

So ignoring any rounding errors, in the first example (everyone calling 8.90%) we get folds with KQ .911 ^3 or .756 (2DP)
Now it's .9151 ^3 or .766

Eh I must have done the math wrong somewhere, I thought the difference would be slightly bigger, I mean whatever I just woke up and you hopefully get the point (and probably already knew the idea that a blocker gets slightly more folds anyway -_-)

rh300487 · 07-12-2012, 11:31 AM

TYVM

Yarbles · 07-12-2012, 04:38 PM

Induce

ShipThisPLZ · 07-12-2012, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yarbles

Induce

-1

the4bettingmonk · 07-12-2012, 08:51 PM

How much a percentage amount does having a given card reduce the odds that they`ll have it? Lets use the scenario set out in OP as example. Obviously im asking about this with regard to weak aces.

jnfpoker · 07-12-2012, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the4bettingmonk

How much a percentage amount does having a given card reduce the odds that they`ll have it? Lets use the scenario set out in OP as example. Obviously im asking about this with regard to weak aces.

I'm not sure I understand your question but...

If you have an Ace blocker you will reduce the amount of AK combos from 16 to 12, so it is 25% less likely that they have that particular hand.
An ace blocker reduces the amount of AA combos from 6 to 3, so it is 50% less likely they have aces.

Assigning the previous range of ATo+,ATs+,66+ ,
there are 64 combos of ATo+,ATs+, you reduce this by 16 combos
there are 54 combos of 66+, you reduce this by 3 combos
118 combos without the blocker, 99 combos with the 1 Ace blocker.

Each opponent is 16% less likely to have this range.

Summary:
KQ is a much more powerful blocking hand when Villain's range for continuing is super strong (QQ+,AK) , as shown in OMGClayDol's example, KQ reduced the chance of at least 1 of 3 opponents having a calling hand by a lousy 1%

A-x works way better as a blocker when Villain actually has a lot of A-x hands that are willing to continue.

stevepa · 07-12-2012, 11:35 PM

jnf, you've counted the blocked combos correctly but ignored that there are less combos of hands (1225 instead of 1326 as OMGclaydol showed above). Having an ace also blocks A9-A2, and your other card blocks a bunch of hands that are folding. The difference between A2 and KQ for how often one guy has 66+/AT+ is:
no card removal: 118/1326 = 8.9%
KQ: 104/1225 = 8.5%
A2: 99/1225 = 8.1%

jnfpoker · 07-13-2012, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevepa

jnf, you've counted the blocked combos correctly but ignored that there are less combos of hands (1225 instead of 1326 as OMGclaydol showed above). Having an ace also blocks A9-A2, and your other card blocks a bunch of hands that are folding. The difference between A2 and KQ for how often one guy has 66+/AT+ is:
no card removal: 118/1326 = 8.9%
KQ: 104/1225 = 8.5%
A2: 99/1225 = 8.1%

AH! It completely slipped my mind. Thanks a lot for clearing that up.