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How normal/standard is this?

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06-19-2017 , 09:14 PM

RPH

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,357

Over 168k hands this year at Stars, i have a 2k BB diff between won BB and adj won BB (9k vs 11k bb).

Note: most of this diff seems explained by my terrible run w QQ: won 2k bb, should have won 3.8k.

Last edited by RPH; 06-19-2017 at 09:21 PM.

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06-19-2017 , 09:39 PM

MangoBall

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 809

U won a 2k big blind pot with QQ?

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06-20-2017 , 05:23 AM

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

Yes, it is possible to run 1.2bb/100 away from your EV over 168k hands.

Probability of running below observed win rate (5.30 BB/100) over 168000 hands with a true win rate of 6.50 BB/100 (»?«) 22.4615%

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06-20-2017 , 06:55 AM

RPH

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,357

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soepgroente

Thanks man.

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06-20-2017 , 08:24 AM

Chuck Bass

World's Most Interesting Procrastinator

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 9,480

Most people would kill to only run 1,2bb below EV, mbn

Also 168k isn't really a sample, it gets threadworthy when you have 2M hands at 5bb below EV or something

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06-20-2017 , 09:45 AM

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

With a std deviation of 65bb/100 (which is even a bit lower when you count all in EV) you really can't get a sample like 2M and 5bb below EV. Observing 6.5bb/100 and 65bb/100 stddev your winrate is 95% to be between 5.58 and 7.42bb/100, the calculator gives 0.0000% for running 1.5bb or lower.

Of course there's some extra variance in mtts (as always) where you're playing at a varying stack depth, but you probably made some mistake (including ante up?) in your sample if that's the result.

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06-21-2017 , 09:16 AM

Chuck Bass

World's Most Interesting Procrastinator

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 9,480

Haha no, obv I've never seen anyone with results like that, I just meant that now *that* would be treadworthy. The point was that it's hilarious to complain running 1BB below ev, especially over such a small sample

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