How to calculate the chances of this happening? - MTT Poker Strategy

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How to calculate the chances of this happening?

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09-09-2016 , 07:16 AM

doublef86

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 25

Very simple question but i don't know how to do the math...
I want to know if my variance is insane or just normal. I mean, i know it's a tiny sample but just for curiosity, what are the chances?

I went all in 19 times today
% result
93 lost
81 won
75 lost
75 lost
74 won
50 lost
48 lost
47 lost
41 lost
41 lost
37 lost
33 lost
32 lost
28 lost
26 lost
20 lost
19 lost
16 lost
13 lost

My question is: what are the chances of this happening in a row?
like 1/100 or 1/1000000?
What is the calculation to do?

Thank you!

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09-09-2016 , 09:11 AM

ChanY

adept

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 1,113

100%, standard.

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09-09-2016 , 11:26 AM

TreadLightly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,709

so 14 times you got it in bad and 5 times you got it in good , you should be asking different questions than you are asking

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09-09-2016 , 11:44 AM

gettym

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 11,011

ran some calculations, the odds are roughly 1/350 or .0028%

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09-09-2016 , 12:20 PM

PocketAcesA5

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 458

That 93% loss though.

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09-09-2016 , 01:19 PM

Uhrenknecht

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 3,896

Quote:

Originally Posted by gettym

ran some calculations, the odds are roughly 1/350 or .0028%

1/350 is 0.28% - is this a three fiddy joke?

Last edited by Uhrenknecht; 09-09-2016 at 01:25 PM.

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09-09-2016 , 02:32 PM

gettym

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 11,011

this is no laughing matter

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09-09-2016 , 07:32 PM

Gallajio

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 160

Let me bust out my TI-83 here

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09-09-2016 , 08:46 PM

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

Any specific sequence is going to be extremely unlikely but your allins have to fall into one of many possibilities. What you should really be asking is: how likely is it that I will have a day where I only win 2 of my 19 all ins? If you play enough, this is guaranteed to show up at some point. The chances of you running this poorly or worse tomorrow, not so high.

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09-11-2016 , 02:48 AM

#10

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Worldwide, the chance that someone somewhere wins 2 out of 19 and considers it threadworthy is 100%.

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09-11-2016 , 04:50 AM

#11

NerdSuperfly

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,172

Quote:

Originally Posted by LektorAJ

Worldwide, the chance that someone somewhere wins 2 out of 19 and considers it threadworthy is 100%.

you earned a golden star!

@ OP ... taking just the all-ins and get a number, "how bad you ran" is just stupid and makes no sense. and if you what to whine, you don't need any number at all, so get some tissues, put in the rounders dvd and drink the beverage of your choice.

besides that, the number, that you would have won all 19, or just the top 5, or the exactly the top4, than #7-#9, or whatever would be also small, so what's the point.

i guess you could ran simulations, to get the variance of this specific sequence, but then you would prolly very disappointed, b/c it would tell you, that it's

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Originally Posted by ChanY

100%, standard.

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09-11-2016 , 08:42 AM

#12

chasepoker

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,644

Quote:

Originally Posted by TreadLightly

so 14 times you got it in bad and 5 times you got it in good , you should be asking different questions than you are asking

Quote:

Originally Posted by gettym

ran some calculations, the odds are roughly 1/350 or .0028%

I LOL'd.

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09-11-2016 , 08:49 AM

#13

JimyJamonas

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,681

Pretty obvious that was the unluckiest run ever experienced by a poker player. Unlucky.

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