you are right about this .best way to be sure if you can beat the games i think is you results at the current games roi/itm/avg profit/profit per game + you winrate evbb/100 there not only the first one and not only the second a combo of these two

Do u think is better to check evbb/100 stage by stage , idk maybe searching for evbb/100 with different ranges of effective stacks in the filters?

Smart points, and agree on all of it.
But where do you believe the line goes? F.e. cutting to 12tabling, do you think we will make moore money per hour of adding 1,2,3,4 tours? How much of ev will that take from already existing mtts? All these kinds of add ups are hard to count on.
If we play with mtt tournament variance calculator, there is good estimations we can do, but still some x,y missing there aswell.

This needs to be said again and again and again to every MTT "pro".

Backers and stables are the only ones truly winning from huge field Sunday MTTs. An individual playing the SM is mainly gambling.

playing too many tables is a major issue that often gets overlooked.....say you add in 4 additional tables more than your comfortable with....of course this leads to a lower ROI,increases variance - but worst of all it hurts your inability to get better as a player....if your game stays stagnant or deteriorates your on the path of being broke and with games so hard these days you can't afford to just maintain your edge....the other thing is there's a lot of dynamics in MTTs that players who mass table will miss that are vital at times.....for myself I know I can 8 table comfortably (provided there's not a ton of shorthanded PLO), and can handle 9 and sometimes 10....if I go above that my ROI will drop off significantly and I'm losing alot of edge.....

this is a good month to watch as many of the mid stake regs will play above their ABI in the WCOOP.....you'll see massive swings and 95% will get destroyed, but there's that handful of guys that will luckbox a big one and get all the glory of climbing out of makeup to actually profit! I guess I get playing big field events while backed - no one really makes money being backed to begin with so might as well go for the big score

OP if you are serious you can add me on skype and I will gladly talk with you about game selection and the thought process you should have in todays games going forward.

.grindthis on skype

Those are some of the best evbb/100 winrates I've ever seen in MTTs pretty sick.

are there ante up mtts in there? 26bb/100 cant be correct

Yeah I wonder that as well we should really be asking you for advice since you should be more concerned with your ev bb/100 in mtts than ROI over small samples. You're really crushing in terms of ev bb/100 more than anyone I've ever seen especially considering your schedule is focused on the toughest site.

Since when did MTT poker become about grinding out a wage ? It's gambling people.. doesn't matter how good you are at the game you have to run great to get the big scores and you have to pay the price when it's ****ty for long periods of time . Play sngs if you don't like it

Always thought it was the other way around

26bb/100 (Allin adjusted) is probably the sickest I hv ever seen. Thought 6bb/100 is already good at high stake. 10bb/100 is elite. Wtf

Your listed evbb/100 are wrong for nearly every sample you looked at, either read the numbers at the very bottom bottom of the list (1 row below the untagged games) or go to the "By poker site" report page to get your actual evbb and bb/100 stats. In some cases the way you interpreted the numbers are way off:



for games > $50 this year your thought your evbb was 6.18 when in reality it was -9.3, huge difference between the two!

Your evbb certain time periods was:
2015: -0.24
2016: 5.73
2.2 million hands: 1.48

Sick grind ethic btw

^^^^

Proof you can crush with having **** evbb.

Still think its a reasonable stat to gauge edge tho.

the problem with BB/100 in MTTs is that for ex if u get early in MTT with 100bb deep spot set over set, or KK vs AA, or flush over flush, you triple barel monster draw etc etc big pot cooler... your EV bb/100 will be way off, up or down, from that one hand

^^^ there are filters available for later stages of mtts you know....

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I think you're onto something here

To estimate your real winrate just remove all those cooler hands from your database. Mine is 43bb/100

In later stages however stacks are a lot shallower and samplesize a lot smaller, so you're gonna need a ****ton of hands to even have a remote idea of how you're doing. When average stacks drop to 25-30bbs you depend a lot on Mother Variance.

That's only starting to scratch the surface, because almost all your money comes from top 1% finishes. Having a big winrate early on or in the mid stages gets you a few extra shots at the 1%, but it's still largely insignificant. That's why you have players with 1-2bb winrate who are up millions and others with 10bb+ who are small winners.

If we're talking about big field tournaments, the number of them you'd need to play to have any sort of reasonable sample in the last 1% stage of the game is well beyond even the craziest grinder's reach.

Winrate is still the best tool to determine a player's overall skill, but we're playing MTTs so skill and results are only loosely correlated over the small sample that is an individual player's career.

To give a kind of simplistic but still relevant example: If you play an AFS of 2000 and grind 5000 MTTs in a year and reach the last 1%, 1.5% of the time because of your edge, that's still only 75 shots at a 20 person SNG with significant money. A 10 year career is 750 shots. That's not a lot at all. And then there's the whole other level of luck that is getting these shots and running good in them in the upper part of your buyin range.

Worry about your winrate. Don't expect it to translate into results.

good points - just illustrates how guys playing AFS of 2k are more gamblers then profitable players....personally with how little you can make in poker these days I dont know why people would endure such variance for such little payoff.....if you can average 100k/yr but over a 10 year period your years range from 10k-200k why do it?

that is cos you are on good side of coolers all the time bro

I just want to say that (because i can see is trending that MTT players determine their skill edge based only on EVbb/100) in MTTs where BB lvl and stack sizes change all the time, saying I am good player and should be wining because my stats are Xbb/100, or I am bad player cos Ybb/100 and making assumption about your skill,edge,roi etc... based only on those numbers is far away from true picture of skill set one player have imo

Another thing is in PSKO's you are often supposed to make -chipev calls for $ev bountys and with PSKO's being such a large % of the MTT schedule now that should skew your BB/100 stats somewhat.