How to account for callers in raise/fold situations
05-05-2013
, 01:28 PM
* The simplest method would be to assume that when you get called that you always check/fold post-flop (ie: getting called is the same as getting 3-bet and you folding). This ignores the few times you hit something with your rags, but in general when you are raise/folding (as opposed to raise/calling) you are on a pure fold-equity bluff anyway and having people flatting you is a bad thing.
* An alternative method (used by Tysen Streib in the "Kill Everyone" book for working out his HU Nash Equilibrium solutions) is to assume that when you get flatted you will all just check down to the river and no more bets go in (ie: you will win your fraction of the pot based on pre-flop all-in equity). This again isn't that great as you'll often get bluffed off the pot by the caller and ignores the fact you might (want to) try to c-bet, etc.
* Another (pretty bad) alternative would be to assume that whenever you are called you get all your money in on the flop 100% of the time. This is only really useful in cases where you are making "nearly all-in" pot-committing raises and expect your opponent ranges to change compared to a push (ie: on the bubble with a shorty yet to act, etc).
Overall I think the first heuristic is prolly the best, as at least it provides a "lower bound" on your EV gained purely from fold-equity alone and any extra equity gained from the times you hit a monster with your rags is just a bonus (you could even try to use a slightly negative edge as a fudge factor...).
One thing to keep in mind though is what will happen to your image (and how other's will adapt) if you start to actually often check/fold after getting flatted...
The final thing to think about is that there was a good reason why in the early days of SNGs push/fold strategy was dominant: namely that playing in games where (loose/bad) players often flat, you end up missing out on all the extra all-in equity that even the crappiest hands have... It's only because of today's opponents flatting way less often that raise/fold is now often more profitable than pushing and if you were to go back to the games of 5-8 years ago, you'd be pretty hard pushed to find many raise/folds opportunities (that gained more EV than push) in the first place! In general, the more opponent's are flatting in your games, the less you want to have in your raise/fold range overall.
Juk
Last edited by jukofyork; 05-05-2013 at 01:35 PM.
05-05-2013
, 03:54 PM
Quote:
Yeah, it's pretty hard to come up with a decent heuristic for this:
* The simplest method would be to assume that when you get called that you always check/fold post-flop (ie: getting called is the same as getting 3-bet and you folding). This ignores the few times you hit something with your rags, but in general when you are raise/folding (as opposed to raise/calling) you are on a pure fold-equity bluff anyway and having people flatting you is a bad thing.
* An alternative method (used by Tysen Streib in the "Kill Everyone" book for working out his HU Nash Equilibrium solutions) is to assume that when you get flatted you will all just check down to the river and no more bets go in (ie: you will win your fraction of the pot based on pre-flop all-in equity). This again isn't that great as you'll often get bluffed off the pot by the caller and ignores the fact you might (want to) try to c-bet, etc.
* Another (pretty bad) alternative would be to assume that whenever you are called you get all your money in on the flop 100% of the time. This is only really useful in cases where you are making "nearly all-in" pot-committing raises and expect your opponent ranges to change compared to a push (ie: on the bubble with a shorty yet to act, etc).
Overall I think the first heuristic is prolly the best, as at least it provides a "lower bound" on your EV gained purely from fold-equity alone and any extra equity gained from the times you hit a monster with your rags is just a bonus (you could even try to use a slightly negative edge as a fudge factor...).
One thing to keep in mind though is what will happen to your image (and how other's will adapt) if you start to actually often check/fold after getting flatted...
The final thing to think about is that there was a good reason why in the early days of SNGs push/fold strategy was dominant: namely that playing in games where (loose/bad) players often flat, you end up missing out on all the extra all-in equity that even the crappiest hands have... It's only because of today's opponents flatting way less often that raise/fold is now often more profitable than pushing and if you were to go back to the games of 5-8 years ago, you'd be pretty hard pushed to find many raise/folds opportunities (that gained more EV than push) in the first place! In general, the more opponent's are flatting in your games, the less you want to have in your raise/fold range overall.
Juk
* The simplest method would be to assume that when you get called that you always check/fold post-flop (ie: getting called is the same as getting 3-bet and you folding). This ignores the few times you hit something with your rags, but in general when you are raise/folding (as opposed to raise/calling) you are on a pure fold-equity bluff anyway and having people flatting you is a bad thing.
* An alternative method (used by Tysen Streib in the "Kill Everyone" book for working out his HU Nash Equilibrium solutions) is to assume that when you get flatted you will all just check down to the river and no more bets go in (ie: you will win your fraction of the pot based on pre-flop all-in equity). This again isn't that great as you'll often get bluffed off the pot by the caller and ignores the fact you might (want to) try to c-bet, etc.
* Another (pretty bad) alternative would be to assume that whenever you are called you get all your money in on the flop 100% of the time. This is only really useful in cases where you are making "nearly all-in" pot-committing raises and expect your opponent ranges to change compared to a push (ie: on the bubble with a shorty yet to act, etc).
Overall I think the first heuristic is prolly the best, as at least it provides a "lower bound" on your EV gained purely from fold-equity alone and any extra equity gained from the times you hit a monster with your rags is just a bonus (you could even try to use a slightly negative edge as a fudge factor...).
One thing to keep in mind though is what will happen to your image (and how other's will adapt) if you start to actually often check/fold after getting flatted...
The final thing to think about is that there was a good reason why in the early days of SNGs push/fold strategy was dominant: namely that playing in games where (loose/bad) players often flat, you end up missing out on all the extra all-in equity that even the crappiest hands have... It's only because of today's opponents flatting way less often that raise/fold is now often more profitable than pushing and if you were to go back to the games of 5-8 years ago, you'd be pretty hard pushed to find many raise/folds opportunities (that gained more EV than push) in the first place! In general, the more opponent's are flatting in your games, the less you want to have in your raise/fold range overall.
Juk