I posted a bunch above, either a) get better, or b) play tournaments where you have a bigger edge and you won't be swonging 50-60k so often.

what kind of swings should I expect at ABI 18, avg field size 270 and turbo ratio 25 % ?

Totally depends on how good you are. Huge downswing difference between 10%, 40%, and 100% ROI.

Nothing easier then this; show you a very clear example

my .it only results (noboy be too shocked, first 6k games where when .it fields so huge and easy, probably expected is now 25-30%)



then after that 10k game, throw in .com/.fr , where i'm definetely way lower in exp altough i don't really think i'm a loser

you have to also take that with these sample sizes average field size has huge impact on it as well.

10/27/2013-07/14/2014 3,183 -$6.37 $28.46 -4% -$20,263 62 18.4%

I did a few calcs for downswings in 1000 seat MTTs a while back and produced some graphs for the likelyhood of swings with various ROI's.
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs
If you play with a 10% roi it is truely brutal - as you can see you should expect an 800+BI swing in 1 in 10 sets of 10k games you play, so 800BIs is not really all that unusual. (Note that you will typically have earned 10k * 0.1 = 1000 BI's for any block of 10k games.)

High roi is what protects most from downswings.
The variance of hypers/turbos/normal are all the same per game, it is dependent on the payout structure, and the finish distribution, and these are usually about the same.

You can play a lot more games per hour with hypers/turbos and as the variance is additive if you play 5x the number of games you get 5x the variance for the same hourly period. Juice has some very small affect and also the roi has little effect on the variance per game.

Perhaps an interesting thing is if you play:
(a) 5k games with a 20% roi at normal speed
(b) 10k games with a 10% roi at turbo speed. (So play twice as many as (a) in the same time.)
For both (a) and (b) you win on average the same amount.
For a) the swing to be expected 50% of the time is 300+BI
For b) the swing to be expected 50% of the time is 500+BI

So 500BI swing is about the equivalent swing faced by (b) compared to the 300BI swing for (a)

At 20% roi it takes 300 * (1.0/0.2) = 1500 games to earn the equivalent financial amount as the swing size for (a).

At 10% roi it takes 500 * (1.0/0.1) = 5000 games to earn the equivalent financial amount as the swing size for (b).

If it take A hours for (a) to play 1 game so it takes 1500 x A hours to earn this (a) swing amount on average
It takes (b) 5000 x A/2 = 2500A hours to earn this (b) swing amount.

In hours it takes 2500/1500 = 5/3 times as long to earn the amount of BIs as the average swing size you would expect playing if you halve your winrate but double your amount of games per hour.

If you had the choice of twice the games but half the roi you will typically face deeper and longer swings. Twice the games and half the win-rate makes everything a bit more of a gamble in the short term, the 'bell curve' will be centred on the same $ amount but will by about √2, or approx 1.4 times wider (the bell curve will look approx +/- 3 sd's wide for both but for (b) the sd is √2 times bigger than a's sd).

Nothing wrong in playing turbos if it increases your hourly it is great to do.
If it increases the number of games per hour but doesn't improve your win-rate per hour very much it is pulling in more of a short term gamble so just be aware of this effect.
It is nearly impossible to get an accurate value for your roi anyway, you really do need 100k games to get perhaps a 90%CI to within a +/- 5% value and who manages that in a short period.

1.95k @ $14 ABI

I am pretty sure it is somewhat around 200 Buy ins. I'd say 400 BI but I won a MTT, raised stakes a bit and went on a downswing again.

do not count this as a downswing pls

I'm lifetime above 10% ROI with a 20k sample, and last year went on an 800BI downswing at the midstakes.

Better not see anymore similar downswings until I'm at game 100k+

Well done Norfair18 - it is difficult to get through these things and you have come out the other side.
MTTs are such a cruel sport though. For a 10% roi player playing 20k there is approx 25% chance of seeing a 800+ downswing and alas somewhere in the next 20k there is another 25% of seeing one
On the bright side on average you get as many heaters as downswings and 20k is quite a small sample so your 90%CI roi range does stretch all the way up as far as 20% roi. You have to be pretty strong, optimistic, and a bit crazy to play big fields.

current downswing -42k @ 20$ avg buy in excl PLO and sats on stars so thats like 2100 buy ins

but 0-20 +42k 9k games
and 22+ -62k 2.3k games
overall. Im overdue to hit the jackpot in the sunday million i guess.

Think this is beyond a downswing

yeah, definitely not like theres a skill difference between 0-20 and 20+

yeah, definitely no variance difference between 0-20 and 20+ either

I had a $150k downswing on stars over 2500 games at around $170 abi. Sharkscope says I have a 47% ROI though. Feel sick even saying those numbers tbh and put off posting in this thread for some time while on it.

Avg ROI != ROI. What that means is you were winning a lot in smaller games and getting crushed in tougher games. Happens to tons of players.

I was saying my lifetime Avg ROI not during that downswing period, I don't know what it was then but it was probably negative too. I definitely wasn't using all the tools readily available to play my best so can't put it all on variance. Total ROI is 81% but I have run ridiculously well on big final tables.

170 abi



What could possibly go wrong

700$ current downswing right now... micro mtts are hard to grind!

100 buy ins micro tournaments

At what point do you realize you just aren't good at MTTs?

~13.5k$ @20-25$ ABI #worstbehavior

never, just always blame variance