Hi fellow 2+2'ers,

I've been debating a hand with a friend and wanted to solicit some additional feedback on the optimal way to play this.

$20 hyper, 1st is $425, 15th is $45, no significant difference from 15th to 8th.

Blinds are 3000/6000/600, 18 players left, hero is in 9th.

Hand:

Folds to V on BTN with 9bb, who jams.
Hero is in SB with 7.5bb with JJ
BB not relevant as hero covers.

The question here is whether hero should go for it in a spot that is clearly +EV or do nothing and take the guaranteed min cash and then look for a spot to go. I'm looking for insight as to which direction we should fall on this and the rationale behind it.

I'm not posting results as they are irrelevant to the question at hand, but appreciate your insights.

Pretty easy call, especially given the likelihood that Villain is shoving with a wide range. Even if he shoves top 20%, you're a 64/36 favorite; top 25% and you/re 66/34 ahead. Given bubble dynamics, he might be shoving wider still.

You could use those extra chips! There's a small chance that you'll run into QQ+, and a bit more of a chance that you're flipping for it vs. AK, AQ or KQ. Otherwise, though, you're ahead of most of his range unless he's an unbelievable nit in a situation where even nits take a shot at a pot.

If you're playing above your usual bankroll, or in a high-prestige tournament, there's an argument for playing the bubble safe/timid just so you can say you cashed. But a $20 hyper doesn't sound like such a situation. If you want to be a winning tournament player, you'll need to make periodic runs at the top three spots. That's where a huge chunk of the prize money resides.

If you're embracing a strategy that cruises you into min-cash and not much more, you won't win enough on your successful runs to offset all of the bad beats and card deadness that will eliminate you other times, way before the bubble.

The fact that there's a long plateau from 15th to 8th actually works both ways. Yeah, if you folded this and crawled into the money, busting out 14th wouldn't be that much worse than busting out 10th with more chips. Conversely, though, if you'd like to make the top eight, walking away from this hand hurts your chances of getting through the low-pay zone by a lot.