Yeah I did, cheers.

Don't really see it as mocking to be honest. Some people asking for MU which they don't have the edge on

If someone wants it at 1.05 they can offer to buy present shares at that much and the current winners who got there earliest can profit $50 per 1%. The only loser in this scenario is CTS who could have had higher initial prices.

$500

$5000

Today I decided to look trough the marketplace again, first thread I opened was an HS-MTTer selling for EPT-Barcelona-Satellites. I skimmed trough the thread and already laughed at the 1.15 MU as this makes it already -ev. I once SSed a bigger Alias to see the avg. ROI of players in ~500 Buyin Satellites. The avg. ROI was around 5%.

Not only does he already charge a ridiculous high markup but the most tilting thing is that when the package is won he wouldn`t pay out Hotel or Expenses(In that case 3k of a toal of 8.3k€).

So if we do the calculation that he wins a package 8300/500 = 16.6 = 1 out of 16.6 times that would be in €:

3000€/16.6 = 180€ in ev.

The package does include 215s, were this calculation is off but in purely 500s his actually markup would be 530/180 =33.9%

33.9 + 1.15 = 1.489


His wording in the thread is missleading and outright scammy in my opinion.

You're forgetting that he's got some decent equity in the actual live mtt that at the very least will make up for a markup that does indeed seem pretty out of line.

This marketplace crusade is a complete joke. Just a bunch of high stakes guys, with a chip on their shoulder, who are mad they can't sell to a 100k super high roller at their true roi because some broke kid with a dream sold to a 1500 at 1.25, as that is the only way he can afford to play it. If you guys were as smart as you all think you are you would exploit the marketplace as much as possible while it lasts. Stop acting like it is some right to have an economy where you will always be able to sell action to intelligent investors in order to sustain your bankroll to play certain stakes. Investing is a choice and if an investor blows their money on someone overvaluing a package that's too bad. Let the market regulate itself. Its not a scam to get someone to pay more for something than they should. It is good business.

Now what Timex was going to do was absolutely great. Instead of just bitching and trying to kill people's action out of pure jealousy and spite (even if that was his intention for starting the bank of Timex) he was actually going to capitalize on a market that people are buying too high. If he were to do this and make a ton of money people would realize that the markups are much too high and the market would likely begin to correct itself. Again though, he is taking ACTION. He isn't just sitting behind a computer beaking at someone for trying to make a buck.

The main point of this rant is that bad investors are going to lose their money one way or another.. If they aren't smart enough to understand how a simple business they are INVESTING THEIR OWN MONEY in works then they will likely continue to make poor decisions with their money regardless if the staking marketplace shows some kind of correction or not. The idea that the economy is going to go busto because people are making bad investments just doesn't make sense. People make bad investments all the time in every market you can think of. What will happen is the bad investors will go broke and nobody will be able to sell at the markups they are selling at. Then people will naturally try to sell at lower markups and good investors will capitalize on it. Not a difficult concept.

pretty sure the good mtters who actually know how to play sats can have more 15%-25% in the 500s. the structure is very good and most of the regs make huge icm mistakes. and same with the fish obv. not saying that the guy who posted the package (dunno who it was) is one of the good players (or not).

(yea if it rollsover instead of cash it could be +ev cause of edge in the field, but then he might be keeping the spending money/accom himself which is an effective extra huge mu once again.)

^ good post, agree with most of it and especially this bit:
it's a kind of economic darwinism. The stupid people who keep dumping money on terrible investments will lose their money one way or another, and this is no different to recreational players losing at the tables. We as poker players are happy to relieve "fish" of their money, and some marketplace sellers have extended that principle to investment opportunities. Good luck to them!

I am the guy you are talking about. My screen name is zugzwang16 and I've made over 500k playing tournaments at Stars during the last 3 years.

I don't like the tone of your post and I consider it insulting.

But I will try to respond just with facts:

1. We all know it's super hard to estimate the true ROI of a single player due to sample sizing biases but the best I can do is making my own calculations and I am above 30% in deep structured sattys.

2. It is true that if I win a first package I will not reimburse hotel/travel costs but it is also true I might win more than 1 package and extra packages are refunded for the whole package value. Plus, many players that play live events have to pay heavy taxes if they win. In the EPT case, I'll have to pay 0 taxes.

3. Let's assume the following example. Suppose I have a 20% ROI at 500 sats which reward 10k package events in which 3k are travel/hotel and 7k the event seat buy in. In this case, I would make $ 100 per satty. If I played 100 sattys for a total cost of 50k I would on average cash for a total of 60k, including 10k profit (this would be 6 packages, in which one would be due to the 20% ROI). If I had to pay for hotel and travel in 1 package, my net profit would be 7k and this would represent a 13% ROI. This means that even in a case where you are "taxed" for the first package won, you still have v good ROI.

4. I wrote a very detailed post when selling the package and tried to be as clear as possible. Someone raised a question in the thread and I replied in a friendly manner.

As a long time member of this community who has always honoured investors and be clear about the terms and conditions of all packages sold, I think I deserve the respect that is missing in your post and an apology even though you disagree about my true ROI or don't like the nature of my package.

Except that just because it will probably right itself over time (probably a long time, given how long its been ****) does not mean people shouldnt try to speed up that process if they want.

There are other reasons to wanting things to be a fair price, and no, to be counted as 'smart' does not mean you have to exploit something for the max you can get out of it for as long as possible. You may have been playing poker too long if you think this applies to everything. It is true if you count obtaining money at all costs as the most important metric of 'smart'.

Youre also forgetting that the marketplace may have a finite life and once all the bad investors have lost their money and interest flags, there's nothing to say buyers and sellers will immediately jump in and save the day. It could well be scrapped due to lack of interest while all these bad investors are disappearing and before they are replaced. I dont see anything wrong with wanting to try and force it to a sustainable level prematurely.

1) optimistic.
2-3) Very few people pay taxes on EPTs. You arent playing that many packages, and would have to run extremely well to win more than one sat. so the "tax" as you say, is much higher in real life than in the example you sell.
4) I think it is more the nature of non-standard packages like this and stakeback packs, that many of the marketplaces uninformed buyers will think its a much better deal than it is, because they dont have much to compare it to.

Also im pretty sure there are no calculations you can do that would make this a +ev investment for someone who was wanting cash instead of a rollover to the EPT, and offering this option is effectively an investor "fish-trap" where you are giving them the option of making a huge mistake.

Even assuming a very high roi in the EPT Barcelona event, it is hard to see how this pack could be anything better than breakeven for investors.

I`m pretty confident that there is not a single player who has a 30% ROI in 500€ sats. I don`t know how much you are up either, your stats are blocked so I have to take your word for it.


Your calculation is flawed, you can`t just do a simple calculation like this when you only offer a limited samplesize, you might just ship one Package and never sell again which would make it highly -ev for investors.

Though someone else brought up the point that the EPT-Mainevent would have no MU and you would be +ev there. That`s a fair point, I didn`t think about this - my mistake I apologize. Still most likely this is at best a breakeven investment.

I think the biggest problem might not even be the MU that people charge but the ROI they think they got in these tournaments. Other people just rip people off(Not saying you), it`s not in my nature to do this. If I ask for an "invesment" I expect to show a return for my investors and thus personally would never charge these MUs.

And pretty much this.

I am always open to discuss things, like you do in your post. Needless to say, you have the right to find the package not tempting, overvalued or whatever you think it is. This is how the market works and how we act everyday as consumers. I think I've already said why I think the package is a good deal for investors (even though I am always thinking about ways to improve them) so I wont repeat myself.

The only thing I truly dislike in your post is implying I set a "fish/trap" by letting investors decide whether they want the cash or a % in the event. And I truly dislike it for the same reasons I found Nash post disgusting.

Sellers might make mistakes, might overvalue themselves, etc, but this doesnt mean they are not acting in good faith.

With reference to your comment, I didnt set anything, I just tried to be fair as give ppl options. Some ppl might need that money urgently, some others might be afraid of my live play, and a third group might have confidence I can hit something good in EPT and are patient enough to wait until September.

Your sharkscope was unblocked was sure it was blocked but here are your stats for freezoutsatellites(I guess it`s ok to post them else you would have blocked them in the first place):

SCHEDULED 2.097 41,08 $ 189 $ 6,4% 86.140 $ 93

Nash:

Small samples are always complicated and the best you can do are guesses (compare yourself to ppl who think have a similar ROI than you, and periodically evaluate how well ppl play satellites). Sometimes it is also important to take into account some contextual variables (for instance June has softer fields than other months due to WSOP and I truly expect higher ROI for all good MTT regs).

As I said, I am always open to discuss alternatives to improve packages. Although I think the package is nice, this discussion gave me the idea of offering investors the option of buying all my Barcelona sats of july, which would increase the sample of sattys, the chance of hitting extra packages and therefore would be an even better deal for them.

Fair enough, and i didnt mean to suggest it was intentional, but giving someone the ability to make a decision that you know is $-ev (if you had thought about it, which it seems you didnt) is bad practice. Perhaps you could have a comment in there stating you wouldnt advise this as most of the value of the package comes from playing the EPT.

Are you including turbo/hyper sats in the sample? IDK how sharkcope treats hotel/travel $. And how is hotel/travel calculated if you hit a second package?

it is always the same. if you buy in for $500, the package is valued at $5000 including entry/hotel/spending money, sharkscope says 4.5k profit. doesn't matter if you have won a package before or not.

slightly off is the fact that most regs spend more in rebuys than the average player, so that would actually mean most regs have less profit than sharkscope suggests.

sample size is way too small but to give you an idea if you exclude turbos/super turbos it's the top one, but if you then exclude rebuys as well its the bottom one. obv not saying you are a losing player in non turbo freezeouts but yeah 30 is pretty optimistic, these stats also include smaller buyins etc.



zugzwang16
PokerStars
611 $289
28.1%
$20,115
$9,285
93 x

zugzwang16
PokerStars
432 $274
9.6%
-$8,511
$7,282
72

I don't think people overestimating their ROI is a problem or even people offering -ev packages for that matter. As long as the package is very transparent it is up to buyer to decide if the like the product or not.

However I do think some MPer's try to angle sometimes (not implying you are RPH), and that's infinitely worse than offering a bad yet transparent package. I once stupidly bought a piece of a package that had a few satties thrown in at "no MU!!" advertised in the title and OP. Later I find out that only 50% of the satty win was for the target tourney buy-in. Clearly I take responsibility for not doing enough homework, but advertising those at "NO MU!!" is obv going to lure and catch off-guard unsuspecting fish (and lazy dolts like me).

I`ve just made an alias to look up stats for sats, I filtered out Rebuys and it`s only Regspeeds. I made sure to only include players I personally perceived as really good. Yeah 5k games is not the biggest samplesize but it should give a good indicator.

SCHEDULED N 4.808 63,34 $ 376 $ 10,5% 304.542 $ 93

They might be, they might be not. Its clearly debatable (although it is something I'll keep an eye on in the future for sure).

I think that something that BankofTimex has created (not necessarily because Mike's intentions) is that now sellers seem to be guilty (of scamming, abusing, etc.) until inocence is proven. For instance, Goldfish misunderstood something in my package thread and quickly left a message in my package thread acussing me that I was taking even more $ in the Passport satty. He was wrong (both regarding the facts and leaving the message in the inappropriate place) and I think lots of ppl now have some kind of anti/seller spirit.

One more thing. I am not only a seller but also a buyer. This year I bought a NSB high SCOOP package for instance (thanks God I did it). He offered around 1.16 and 1.1 in turbo if I remember well. I am not 100% sure that even a fantastic player like him has a significantly higher or equal ROIs in Super High Buy-In Events. However, I think he did a decent and honest estimation and that was enough for me. That is what, as a buyer, I am expecting from a seller.

I agree with this in general, or least the misleading super misleading stats/graphs.. Someone mentioned ITT multiple times already posts overall sharkscope stats but not graph because he has one big bink, and it's not even for NLHE which is what most of his packages are for lol. Really tilting because I know some people unfortunately aren't aware of this and still buy when they probably wouldn't otherwise. Sometimes it's unintentional (genuinely not understanding how big of a rake the accommodation is in satellite packages for example) but sometimes it's just really obvious.

Am I the only one who is surprised this discussion is still going two weeks into WSOP?