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Bank of Timex discussion thread - Timex mocks people's high markups Bank of Timex discussion thread - Timex mocks people's high markups

06-11-2013 , 12:30 AM
Wow another reason for ppl to hate timex..I agree mark ups are ridiculous but buyer beware ... I dont think this is a cool thing to do at all. Mike even says in the interview he's doing it partially cuz he "decent regs" or wtvr condescending term he uses to describe ppl who aren't as good/BLESSED as him are cutting into his profits. Out a line ,guy has run so far above ev in his life and got a huge bankroll when he was really young , and he has the nerve to try and f*ck with other ppls ability to take some shots. Yah he's one of the best mtt players ever but seriosly what a dick.
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06-11-2013 , 12:33 AM
LOL
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06-11-2013 , 12:35 AM
maybe off topic, but when someone sells 80% of themselves for wsop at 1.3 and says they aren't basically freerolling because they are paying for a flight and hotel and food and their time for the summer, are they scamming? or if it's not black and white like that, on a scale from 1-10, how much is it a scam, assuming the seller is an above average player?
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06-11-2013 , 12:35 AM
Screen name?
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06-11-2013 , 12:36 AM
so does that means he's not selling online shares but what about live shares?
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06-11-2013 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurnUpTheSun
maybe off topic, but when someone sells 80% of themselves for wsop at 1.3 and says they aren't basically freerolling because they are paying for a flight and hotel and food and their time for the summer, are they scamming? or if it's not black and white like that, on a scale from 1-10, how much is it a scam, assuming the seller is an above average player?
i wouldn't do this personally but i don't think this is a scam, nor do i think all deals where someone is freerolling (or close) is necessarily a bad buy. that being said i know there are significant disadvantages for buyers in these kind of deals especially in people who aren't reputable, and there's a huge correlation between being reputable and being someone who doesn't sell like 80% of their own packages.

i mean good/respectable stakers sometimes give literal freeroll deals out, so i don't see what is wrong with selling action to the point where they are freerolling. again, i wouldn't do this myself and agree most of the deals like this are bad, but that's because of correlation not causation.
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06-11-2013 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by timex
I also like to use some of the travel/food money I make in markup to buy pieces of people in the marketplace so I adjust my markup accordingly as I'd rather not pay for these pieces out of pocket
let's not forget increasing MU in your package to purchase the drugs that help you FOCUS at the table and slay your villains!
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06-11-2013 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aznpowr11
let's not forget increasing MU in your package to purchase the drugs that help you FOCUS at the table and slay your villains!
Obvvvv
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06-11-2013 , 03:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurnUpTheSun
maybe off topic, but when someone sells 80% of themselves for wsop at 1.3 and says they aren't basically freerolling because they are paying for a flight and hotel and food and their time for the summer, are they scamming? or if it's not black and white like that, on a scale from 1-10, how much is it a scam, assuming the seller is an above average player?
the word scam is thrown around too much...it's clearly not a scam when someone says "i'm selling X% at Y markup" and then really sells X% at Y markup. he clearly stated what he was selling and how much he was selling...he's not hiding or deceiving. it might not be a profitable package, but that's far from a scam...buuuuuuuuut, if someone sells 80% at 1.3 he's also clearly 100% freerolling the package. who cares about airfare and food, that's not your investors responsibility...people who say 'oh it's not a freeroll cause i have to pay for my own basic life necessities' are just idiots...
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06-11-2013 , 03:27 AM
Mike ‏@BankOfTimex 3h
Congratulations marketplace idiots, you guys win again! I've spent the evening learning more about the legality of online gambling
...
and can't really justify keeping this going. It'd get too big too quick and I doubt I'd even get to keep the money I win from you guys.
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06-11-2013 , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bazooka87
Mike ‏@BankOfTimex 3h
Congratulations marketplace idiots, you guys win again! I've spent the evening learning more about the legality of online gambling
...
and can't really justify keeping this going. It'd get too big too quick and I doubt I'd even get to keep the money I win from you guys.
i know youre richer, smarter and better looking (source: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/34...ammer-1290316/) than everyone in here but you come off really condescending/arrogant in those tweets

Last edited by fightingcoward; 06-11-2013 at 03:43 AM.
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06-11-2013 , 04:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane Gamble
This is why something like Bank of Timex (while short-lived) needed to come about. Just lol @ this type of thinking. Markup isn't supposed to cover your airfare and food, scammer.
The investment has a cost. Can you explain to me why you don't think that an investor should pay a proportional share of the expenses? I suppose you think that the player should spend his or her time playing on your behalf for free as well?

If we lived in a magical world where ROIs where 100% certain, and there was no chance of default by the stakee. Consider if I had a 100% ROI and I sold a package at 1.90. Do you think that's a scam? There's a huge profit factor built in for me, but I don't think it's the least bit unfair. I'd take that investment.

I think it is only problematic when people are selling at markups that result in a negative return to investors. I would expect that the established players selling at large markups would leave less on the table for investors (consequently taking more 'profit') as they are less risky. Both in terms of uncertainty and likelihood of default.
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06-11-2013 , 05:16 AM
cool thing MP definately has way too much high MU so glgl!
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06-11-2013 , 05:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bazooka87
Mike ‏@BankOfTimex 3h
Congratulations marketplace idiots, you guys win again! I've spent the evening learning more about the legality of online gambling
...
and can't really justify keeping this going. It'd get too big too quick and I doubt I'd even get to keep the money I win from you guys.
And he has the coolest name that a poker player could have; Mike McD
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06-11-2013 , 07:29 AM
A bit off-topic but I have a question regarding MU.

How do you calculate the MU when someone sells while holding taxes over winnings?
So let's say someone pays 29% taxes, how big is the MU?

Is it 29/71 = ~40% or does it work a different way?

And say when someone sells for a 1k schedule + 15% mu, so 1150 and calculating taxes (29%) when the winnings are >5k, how big is the true MU? Can't figure it out.

Thnx.

Last edited by Mintewek; 06-11-2013 at 07:35 AM.
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06-11-2013 , 07:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skier_5
The investment has a cost. Can you explain to me why you don't think that an investor should pay a proportional share of the expenses? I suppose you think that the player should spend his or her time playing on your behalf for free as well?

If we lived in a magical world where ROIs where 100% certain, and there was no chance of default by the stakee. Consider if I had a 100% ROI and I sold a package at 1.90. Do you think that's a scam? There's a huge profit factor built in for me, but I don't think it's the least bit unfair. I'd take that investment.

I think it is only problematic when people are selling at markups that result in a negative return to investors. I would expect that the established players selling at large markups would leave less on the table for investors (consequently taking more 'profit') as they are less risky. Both in terms of uncertainty and likelihood of default.
Didn't read your whole post because I'm in the bath tub eating canned salmon and talking to ex spelling bee champion on Facebook but answer is because expenses are independent, if two equally skilled players sell to main even but one has to travel from iceland and one is just in Vegas doesn't mean investors should pay more for the Icelandic guy if their actual EV roi is the same.
Most of what you said is irrelevant or independent to expenses being charged to investors. MU you charge is to compensate for your edge. Whether its +EV to go or not with expenses considered for you, and whether investors think your action at x MU is profitable are seperate things..
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06-11-2013 , 08:06 AM
This was a brilliant idea. I knew I liked Timex.
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06-11-2013 , 11:39 AM
having done a fair bit of sharkscope analysis for various tiers of tournament where i looked at ROIs for different groups of regs clustered together (e.g., one group of what i perceived to be elite regs, couple of groups of people in the p5 top 100 that i considered competent but not elite, group of regs i thought were pretty bad, etc.) it became very clear to me that almost everyones ROI in almost everything is a lot less than they think (sunday 215s being a notable exception).

backing a wide variety of players of different skill levels at different ABIs compounded this realisation and taught me that the difference between elite regs and ok regs is much greater than i had thought. there really is a group of a couple hundred regs who are always going to win money whenever they decide to log real volume, and then there's everyone else (COOPs illustrate this point well). this is the problem with "soft" tourneys with good structures like live birds or coops, the top 1% regs are taking way too much out of prize pool for the meh regs to have the ROI that everyone assumes. these regs are rarely the people offering packages, and when they are, they are usually selling to tough tourneys at a markup higher than the ROI of the best player in the field(s, whenever a person is adding highstakes turbos into a package it pretty much instantly renders it a bad deal).

this was also the problem with bank of timex, which though a brilliant idea, inevitably resulted in the best players in the world looking to sportsbet on how much better they are than all the average regs in slow structured fields, which does make timex's point in a way but not in the way he intended. as far as marketplace threads go, i would guess that maybe 5% of them are +ev for the investors? maybe less?
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06-11-2013 , 11:49 AM
who do i contact to open a checking account, shane gamble or achen?
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06-11-2013 , 11:50 AM
Spot on Seabeast. What'd you find about Sunday 215s? I'd guess I'm down money lifetime off Sunday 215s after 7.5 years of playing them(or if I am up its not anything exciting) so its nice knowing there's light at the end of the tunnel!
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06-11-2013 , 12:19 PM
just noticed that ROIs were a lot higher for sunday 215s across all groups of reg than they were for stuff like daily 109 or 55 fo, which i guess isn't really all that surprising since the field sizes are so much bigger, but was nice to have a bit of a feelgood moment there since most of what i was finding was pretty bleak. i did notice that guys were really crushing small stakes too. so basically HSMTTs and MSMTTs are worse than ppl think, turbos are way worse than ppl think, but SSMTTs are still v nice ROI, and sunday majors are too.
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06-11-2013 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SEABEAST
having done a fair bit of sharkscope analysis for various tiers of tournament where i looked at ROIs for different groups of regs clustered together (e.g., one group of what i perceived to be elite regs, couple of groups of people in the p5 top 100 that i considered competent but not elite, group of regs i thought were pretty bad, etc.) it became very clear to me that almost everyones ROI in almost everything is a lot less than they think (sunday 215s being a notable exception).

backing a wide variety of players of different skill levels at different ABIs compounded this realisation and taught me that the difference between elite regs and ok regs is much greater than i had thought. there really is a group of a couple hundred regs who are always going to win money whenever they decide to log real volume, and then there's everyone else (COOPs illustrate this point well). this is the problem with "soft" tourneys with good structures like live birds or coops, the top 1% regs are taking way too much out of prize pool for the meh regs to have the ROI that everyone assumes. these regs are rarely the people offering packages, and when they are, they are usually selling to tough tourneys at a markup higher than the ROI of the best player in the field(s, whenever a person is adding highstakes turbos into a package it pretty much instantly renders it a bad deal).

this was also the problem with bank of timex, which though a brilliant idea, inevitably resulted in the best players in the world looking to sportsbet on how much better they are than all the average regs in slow structured fields, which does make timex's point in a way but not in the way he intended. as far as marketplace threads go, i would guess that maybe 5% of them are +ev for the investors? maybe less?
This is basically exactly what I've been saying for 2 years. I would love to mess around with your raw data if you still have all of it available.
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06-11-2013 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGClayDol
Didn't read your whole post because I'm in the bath tub eating canned salmon and talking to ex spelling bee champion on Facebook
welp... thatll help the gay rumours
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06-11-2013 , 02:34 PM
anyone want to take a shot at modeling the equity distribution for say, a wsop 1500 like daut did for the 10k 6m?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daut44

as for the ROIs....i do agree that robot players are the worst in tournaments. I would rather have a guy like that at my table than a tough/unpredictable semi fish who wont let me get away with anything easily.

But when it comes to the 10k 6max, those guys mostly arent in the tourney. When i say the 250 good tourney regs, (I REALLY HATE TO NAME NAMES) but im talking about guys like barry greenstein, phil hellmuth, erik cajelais, negreanu, myself, etc etc. these are really really good ****ing poker players. they just arent in the 80 toughest players in an extremely tough field. most of them are in the 5% ROI range (which is no shame at all in one of the toughest tourneys of the year with probably 100 of the 120 best players in the world), some are slightly negative, and the robotic bad ones are probably in the -20 to -30% range. but overall as a group those 250 guys probably have on average a -10% roi i think.

theres just a very limited amount of buyins to go around in a tournament. I do think you might be right about the tippity top players having a higher ROI and that approaching an unbounded area compared to the rest. for example its possible people like sauce/ike/jungleman/isildur have 100% ROIs just because they are that nasty at NL and maybe ivey as well due to his presence. the problem is though when you start taking out 10 buyins there for those 5 guys, now the other 395 guys only have 374 buyins left making the collective ROI even more negative than it was. thats less buyins for everone else who are also beast players. that makes it very tough for the #10 player to now have above a 50% ROI anymore. as well as the other 65 players i listed (along with beasts i forgot like smokey, jason somerville, allen bari, arbianight, jared bleznick, etc etc)


in a much larger fielded tournament i think you are absolutely right about ROI though. Specifically in the main event. I would imagine the robotic grinders only have a 0-20% ROI there even with all the dead money, but there are more great players who have astronomical ROI as you said. I wouldnt be at all surprised if you and others had a 400%+ ROI in the main event. However, I dont think this is the case in almost any other tournament due to the structures being too fast or the fields being overall too tough. ESPECIALLY not the 10k 6max.

i only picked out the 10k 6max because it was by far the easiest to dissect. I could probably go through others and list what I think realistic ROIs are for those but it would take a bit more work and the numbers would be less accurate. But i think my thoughts on the 10k 6max are near spot on.
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06-11-2013 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGClayDol
if two equally skilled players sell to main even but one has to travel from iceland and one is just in Vegas doesn't mean investors should pay more for the Icelandic guy if their actual EV roi is the same.
This is true, but the flip side is that the Icelandic guy should be selling higher if their EV is the same. Investors are only one party in the transaction.

Let's say the Icelandic guy's travel expenses amount to 2500 and each player's ROI is 50% in the main event. If each player sells at 1.25 (an even split for investors and player) the Icelandic guy is now wasting a week of his life and the Vegas reg is making 2.5K.

In reality of course the split should not be 50/50 between horse and backer. Let's say, for sake of argument, a backer should take 10% of the profit from the tournament. The Icelandic guy is making 2.5K and the Vegas reg is making 5K, so the Vegas reg should sell at 1.45 and the investors pay $145 for $150 of equity per percent, and the Icelandic reg should sell at 1.475 and investors pay $147.50 for $150 of equity per percent.

The obvious problem here for the Icelandic horse is that the Vegas reg is a better deal, and if the marketplace was full of perfect information and unlimited action he would never get backed, but in reality it's not and both players would be good investments (disclaimer: I know nothing about how Icelandic tax laws work).

I don't know why everyone thinks that the cost of playing the tournament outside of the buy-in should borne by the horse and only the horse, and never priced into packages. That's absurd and unfair to the horse. What should actually happen is that players for whom the tournament is more expensive end up being less profitable in the tournament than another player of the same ROI. The Icelandic player is paying $12500 to enter a tournament that the Vegas player is paying $10000 to enter, so his practical ROI is worse, even if his edge over the field is the same.
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