1000 packages is nowhere near enough. Also noone is even saying that the average deal that is purchased in the marketplace is -ev, i would think that if you were to add up all the action that has sold in the MP then you would be up. Would be pretty redic to try and track this though.

It seems like timex isnt actually getting much action on his selling other peoples marketplace threads, and most of the action is people buying pieces of themselves or others who would not normally sell. But regardless this should be good for the MP

Also considering it a win that i havent bought any action in any timex'ed threads

I don't think this is necessarily true, correct me if i'm wrong, but now people can buy % of there favorite player who isn't actually selling %'s rather than choosing from the marketplace, its opened up a whole new dynamic so definitely can't see it being business as usual.

Don't anticipate this will work out for him (Timex) in the long run but I can appreciate the foot he is putting down and what exactly he is bringing into the spotlight.

It's not just 2p2 that allows ignorant people to get raped by absurd mark-ups on a lot of players/schedules. I had no clue how to calculate my own mark-up and originally thought the process was seemingly unfair but I was explained and eventually accepted the practice as standard. I would like to see things work differently somehow, as well as see players not get carried away with mark-ups.

It is an interesting idea.

I don't buy much in the mp but I recently posted in a great looking thread and then noticed a 1.33 mark-up for a online pckg so I insta-deleted my post and later saw the guy play 1/5 of the sched. then cancel the rest and return. I've bought some action from players who I noticed were just "oi" the whole day. The thing is.. if I knew the player was good and cared about everything, along with a proven record of being trusthworthy and making excellent updates throughout the day then I would pay more mark-up for those things. I don't know how that justifies a higher mark-up but I certainly wouldn't mind paying slightly more for someone who you know is really into what he is doing and makes the experience more enjoyable for you as well.

Where the skill factor ends and the experience factor comes into play is something I really can't comment on, seems like its something that could be different for each person and their perspective of skill or fun for that matter. I.e. some people pay absurd mark-ups because they find it fun to brag to other friends they have 1% of Phil Ivey's main event, although they fail to mention they paid 3x the price. The 2nd part just seems irrelevant to them really.

Curious where mark-up values will go now in the midst of so many egos today.

Right, I mean business as usual for people selling packages (at reasonable MUs).

Just a guess, but average sold package has probably 5+ mtts. 5000 games sample is not that bad imo. Obv still far from the actual "truth" but it gives you some kind of idea.

If someone wants to go through the pain of tracking down the last 1000 threads we could put some money together to pay that person. I would definitley through in a few bucks.

Just quoting this post as an example of my mentality behind shorting.

As many have said I'm only really shorting packages that I think are particularly bad value.

The 2 packages posted were: Sunday: Party 530, ftp 635, Stars 215t, 215r, supersonic, 530 and maybe 1-2 more, 109 cubed turbo. 1.3
Tuesday: 1k, 109 cubed turbo, 1.25

Sunday: avg about 6% rake so 36% edge to breakeven, tuesday about 4% rake so 29% edge to breakevent.

Sunday has many tournies that are just all regs or capped ROIs, I'd guess party/stars 530s may be the only one anyone is better than the field by 37% and tournies like 215r, 215t, supersonic no one is even close, I'd estimate something like a 15-20% ROI across this package so I'm happy to short

On the other hand the 1k+ 109cubed, the 1k will be decent when regs are in vegas and the structure is so good I can imagine some people having 30-50% ROIs, the 109 cubed turbo I'd guess roi is under 25% but probably not too far off and the buying is much lower. Here I'd estimate your edge is 25-35% between the package and 20-30% after rake, so even if its on the lower end of that range I'm not too excited to short it for such a minor edge.

I guess you were selling 1.25 for these anyways, so correction yet. But not BOT has 10x the followers as on Sunday morning so you might not get that Arbitrage this time!

To people hating this idea- I'm just one guy voicing my opinion on a social media site. Its not like I'm coming into your marketplace threads and starting **** the way half of marketplace members do.

I was annoyed with a problem, decided I wanted to fix it and by the ammount of interest, its clearly a much needed fix as this twitter account is getting me 50x as many followers per day as my real twitter account(1400 in 36 hours)

I'd be tempted to make a really overpriced package on the marketplace just to be a part of history. I'd want to know what mu (or mark down) Timex would give me. Would validate my existence if it's still reasonable.

Well your justification for highly overpricing it is at least much more logical than most of the marketplace

I think the interesting issue would arise if he were to start buying up packages he felt were underpriced, in effect creating a monopoly, and reselling that action. Obviously this would involve no gambling whatsoever for him (unless he failed to sell on the package), but it could cause worrying market considerations.

i feel like generally speaking i understand this, but what is preventing a person from selling 100% of their action if they have a reputation that may be unwarranted at say, 1.33 and when timex sees and offers it for 1.28 they scoop 100% back up? or intentionally inflating their own markup in order to buy their own. ya i know arbitrage blah blah and its been semi addressed, but there seems to be some market manipulation potential here as well if i see it properly?

When Timex was talking about hwowcurrent breakeven players are turning a profit through markup he said most of the fields were made up of these players. Example was 100 rolled pros, 200 recreational players and around 400 breakeven/sellers who make their profit through markup.

So basically we have 500~ players in the field with a +EV

Timex wants to basically turn these players back to breakeven/losing players (edit: this isnt probably a correct statement, timex wants more accurate markup and is happy for players to still make some profit etc)

He said the money that is being invested in them could be used for other players to play in the tournament but I disagree with this (assuming theyre bad players increasing the ROI for everyone). I think majority of invested money is from people who either cant play in events or wouldnt play in them anyway. I view it as extra money in the poker economy that otherwise wouldnt exists.

I dont see how removing this money from the economy and making more players lose is a good thing.

If all of the money being invested into players with bad markup was redistributed in the economy then thats a good thing, but I dont think that will happen, I think the money will sit with investors without being turned over or end up in the form of a new lambo for mike

I agree with Timex about markup being too high, but if people are paying it and more money is coming into the economy then its still a good thing. I overlook about 99% of packages in the marketplace because of the markup alone and I've spoken out loud about it before.

Of coures this is all based on the idea that if the money being paid for higher markup wasnt fed back into the economy if/when markup comes down.

We are always fighting for a greater distribution of wealth amongst the economy, but it seems here we are focused on funneling more money to the top of the food chain

Yeah, but anyone is able to do that. He's gambling in thinking that the piece is indeed worth it and will get that much demand, and if he estimates correctly, then he profits, nothing wrong with that. It also means that the person selling should've sold at a higher mark-up, and it also means that person gets sold out quicker, both of which are good things for him, everyone's happy.

Let's be reasonable, if there are so many packages that are so underpriced, everyone should be jumping to buy them. If Timex is going around buying all of them, it's going to make the market more efficient too because those people will start selling at higher.

Related: Mers once jokingly offered to buy up and sell his piece of a friend of mine like a year ago. Guy obv won one of the tournaments, I think anyway, maybe it was different package.

@TDA2 the whole reason timex startet his bank is that very many stakings are -ev. There are so few underpriced stakings and those are sold very quickly.

This is so unlikely it is just a non issue.

Do we stand at the rego booths of tournaments informing bad players theyre making a bad decision by playing as they'll likely lose money?

Why do we feel the need to protect people against -EV investments in the poker world but we fight tooth and nail to make players make -EV decision on the poker table

Whats the difference?

From what I've gathered, people don't tend to buy pieces they feel are neutral EV (and consequently, people sell pieces at less than their true ROI if they're 'above board'). If Timex feels he's so good at estimating others' true EV, why does he not just buy all +EV stakes (he probably has the roll) and sell on at half the difference?

The other thread seems to give the impression that someone with a 1.4 expectation will sell at around 1.2 - buying and selling at 1.3 seems reasonable.

I'm going to add a disclaimer in case this looks ****ing stupid - I've never been involved in buying/selling pieces, so if this is completely ******ed it's more to do with ignorance of the specific issues than general stupidity.

As long as timex estimation of the ROI the players have are accurat he can only win. If the markups stays the same he makes money out of his bank.
If the markups are going down he can earn money by buying stakings and there are less regs in his buyins.
Starting this bank is just +ev for him, and education about markup is just an side-effekt.

Everyone who wants to buy shares and has the same opinion about markups as Timex should promote this project. Right now there are very few stakings in many pokercommunities (the stakingforum from pokerstrategy as example) which are +ev.

Mid- to longterm such projects will bring the markups down, which means I have more +ev stakings.
I dont care about peopel blowing their money on -ev stakings, I care very much about the fact that I can only buy very few +ev stakings. And this project should change that.

@TDA2
Timex is most likely not that much better at estimating ROIs, the stakings he is shorting are -ev in the opinion of many peopel. The point of this bank is just to exploit the way to high Markups most peopel are selling for. When the stakings are +ev (the few there are) timex can just buy them for himself, why give up ev by selling them.

Timex, how do you plan on avoiding governments going after you for online wagering shenanigans, re: haralabobs twitter

Edit, I guess a better way to phrase it: Are you worried the DOJ or some other entity is gonna come after you

I sell a lot of packages and I love this idea, as should anyone who puts up a fair price imo.. Should be happy to get shorted if u believe u are offering a good deal as you can buy it from timex yourself and profit. if u are offering a bad deal then you deserve to be called out.

giffordonian is +30k off mark up this year?

RIP.

-@BankofTimex

I think it's really shady and unethical that someone can shortsell their action by selling a package on the marketplace and then buying action back from Timex at a lower markup.

This is why something like Bank of Timex (while short-lived) needed to come about. Just lol @ this type of thinking. Markup isn't supposed to cover your airfare and food, scammer.

probably more, I think that's mickey estimating based on avg mu/number of tourneys but the MU is probably higher than that

I also like to use some of the travel/food money I make in markup to buy pieces of people in the marketplace so I adjust my markup accordingly as I'd rather not pay for these pieces out of pocket