The best thing to do is what I did this sunday, he told me my package was overpriced, I put it at 1.3, he sold it at 1.28. I sold 10% extra of my package I wasn't going to sell and I bought it back from Timex. I locked in a $7 profit to start the Sunday, until Timex actually starts to affect the markup of my packages let's lock in the ARBITRAGEEEEEE while it's out there.

Would like to point out if you buy action via Timex and he ships you winnings and you do not pay taxes in the USA they will consider that fraud. All income must be reported and winnings from a package from Timex is certainly gambling income and not reporting it can result in fines and eventually jail time.

How has timex's entry to that marketplace altered that market so that it is no longer free?

He's selling the same commodity as the player, just at a slightly lower price.

Buyers still have a choice of where to invest, in fact now they even have a slightly greater choice than before, so how is it no longer "EXACTLY the way a free market capitalist system works"?

This is something very interesting to me....I like the ingenuity involved in something like this. Would love to see his outcomes at the end of WSOP although at the same time it is still a fairly small sample size.

ja, but in the podcast we speak about the middle aged woman who has to pay 30% thus decreasing the value of the stake, whilst still selling at 1.5

With Timex you wouldnt have to pay the tax here, at least a lot of Europeans etc.

It is gambling, in the UK we dont pay tax on gambling.

"underrolled and/or recreational/average/part time players" may need to reconsider their markup if they want to sell! I don't believe this is a bad thing.

The only problem I can see is the arbitrage one that squee hinted at. I'm not fully up to speed with the terms/small print of what timex is offering, but if a player is able to sell his own action at (say) 1.3, then buy the same amount from timex for 1.28 that would present some uncomfortable ethical questions.

i think this is a great idea in theory. i think there will be a price correction


however, i think with current tax situations/laws , this raises some moral hazards in practice.

why the hell would someone invest in a canadian knowing there's a 30% witholding, when you could just buy the action from the bankoftimex, pay a lower price, and collect on the back end?

replace Canadian with any nationality where there is witholding....

i could think of some other issues too

the issue of tax, just allows you to "compete" with an absolute advantage vs. the market IMO.

I think its a very interesting model and could delete the inefficency of the Staking markets.

In my opinion the staking market isn't efficent right now.
There is just one seller who is selling one unique product.
All the other offers from percentage sellers are just substitutional products but you never have one product sold by two sellers. This might change now. The Buyeris able to buy the product at a price closer to the market equilibrium, because of the fact, that "Seller 1" and "Seller 2" (Timex e.g.) are reducing the MU till they think they are going to make only slight profit.
In this market equilibrium the market is most efficient.

The only big problem i see is the liquidity of the new seller.
For example: if he is going to sell just 50% of two guys in the WSOP he would risk loosing a maximum of around 8 million Dollar.
If you buy from the actual "Seller 1" and he wins the money he actually has it.
(I mean he could still scam you which would be a + for buying from "Seller 2", but he is definetly liquid.)

"Seller 2" is going to put such a huge sum at stake when selling action to tournaments with $100,000+, that i think it is impossible for a single poker player to give the security to make this a save investment.

I see no way how "Seller 2" you can find an escrow for every potential first price.
A bank would do it just with interest, which seller have to "beat" too to make profit.
And enormous big sums, changing really quick which you need to have secured.

Oh god please dont start with the efficient market theories- read some Taleb to how accurate that theory is :P

Market exploiter is a pretty apt term for people selling too high mu packages imo- always took big issue with the word scammer to describe that practice.

Things will get interesting imo when Timex starts betting against low MU/no mu packages- these have generally escaped the criticism that people level at the high ones.

really nice, gl timex

expanding on the last post...

why would anyone buy action from the actual horse at all, when we can just buy it form you (perhaps for less, even) and be guaranteed no tax issues, witholding, w8/w9/w2s?

not to mention cost of transferring money, and the fact you're less likely to default than any horse with payouts.

i think it really kills the primary selling market for reasons beyond markup. if i were a big buyer, i doubt id buy from a horse again.


thoughts?

Mike won't be selling to the "good value" packages, so this shouldn't be a concern. If a bunch of the packages you like start popping up on Bank of Timex then you probably want to reconsider your buying approach.

Interesting arbitrage opportunities that this has opened up

This is a really great idea but isn't it really stupid that he's creating the market in public?

Also if you buy action from Bank of Timex, you still have to pay taxes on your earnings lol

Poster in question has made over 250 threads this year (all that shows up when I search for some reason, but that only goes back to March), lets say half of them are selling action and avg amount sold is 1500 at 1.15 (overall conservative estimates I feel like) he has made 33750 off Mark-up on 2+2 this year alone.
Also the player often sells to tournaments with very capped ROIs (satellites, turbos, HS tournaments with less than 100 players in other formats, PLO etc). Now add to that the the player doesn't have very good stats (at least compared to the mark-ups), that no real discussion of mark-up is allowed in MP (mods repeatedly saying things like "this is not the place to discuss this, specific threads not being allowed etc"), graph manipulation (pretty much always filtering in a way that looks favorable, even if it doesn't represent what he is most accurately selling for).

If Timex isn't allowed to put up a package like this then is there anywhere public we are even allowed to discuss this, because its clearly not in the marketplace. AFAIK the guy has been selling packages for well over a year, so unless I am missing some screen names or a huge live bink he has made more money off markup (I guess one could counter with untrackable cash games) than he has off playing, how is that ever okay?

I dont want to make the discussion about the specific poster obviously, but I think it does a good job of showing why the way 2+2 marketplace is run now is not in buyers best interest. Dont worry, if people aren't able to sell for the WSOP Main because he sold 10% at a very slightly lower mark-up then there probably wasn't much hope to begin with (fwiw I think both of them are probably +ev investments!). If it is something where people are usually more on the fence about buying like High Rollers, 111k One Drop or something and Mike is just bluffing to try and kill their action and make the fields better for himself, then yeah that would be slightly annoying

Is Timex 100% solid, though?

i think this can/will lead to timex being able to sell packages at a higher mu because of the the reasons mentioned by you.
specifically because timex wont default, and those planning on not paying taxes.
Therefore, timex can sell action at a premium and then buy horses package.

Arbitrage anyone?

I think what you are basically saying is this has the potential to be a MASSIVE DISRUPTION to the marketplace economy, and to that I agree.

what is the value of packages for: canadians or people from a 30% witholding country compared to what mike can offer ?

If you were playing 1k buy in could you in theory turn it into a 3k buying 200% of yourself off timex the lower reg would cancel out the mark up.

Or am i way off

Free market capitalism also entails multiple buyers and sellers. Pre Bank of Timex only had one of these aspects. Competition is almost always a good thing.

That's a pretty specific type of situation.

no it's not. think about it

You can buy 200% of yourself but it's probably going to be at like 2.0 for a decent player. Average that in with the 1.0 you're paying on your initial buyin and you're paying ~1.65-1.7 overall on a $3k buyin. Of course, the 2.0 buy has to be +EV in its own right to be worth making, otherwise the markup you're paying is canceling out the edge you have on the 1.0 "buy" you make when you register the tournament.