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Old 06-10-2017, 10:23 AM   #1
poiulkjh
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Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Hi 2p2, this is my sample of 13k games

I play mostly tournaments and my avg buyin is $20

Excluding rake my graph is this:


With rake becomes this:


What does it really mean?

Im trying to improve and the first step is self-awareness

Am I a bad player? This sample is enough to ensure that?

The fact that I am winner pre-rake means something?

I want to hear your thoughts

Thank you
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Old 06-10-2017, 10:40 AM   #2
Soepgroente
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

It means you're a slightly above average player which isn't good enough to win after rake. Also sample size is an issue as it always will be with mtts. Though 13k games is pretty decent.

At -3% roi which is roughly your result, using 500 man field sizes and 81 paid, this is what the variance calculator spits out:

99.7% of all simulated samples where within this interval. The second row shows to which ROI those profits correspond. Albeit rather unlikely, 3 out of 1000 players will experience a run better or worse than that. $-47,430 - $36,435 (997 out of 1000 samples)
-17% - 13% ROI

And of course you have different buyins, different field sizes, different field qualities etc making the variance even bigger. Plus you probably don't play the same way you did when you started your 13k sample, and neither did your competition. Even the optimistic top end 13% ROI isn't huge for a 20 ABI though, so there's probably a good bit of room for improvement.
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Old 06-12-2017, 01:46 PM   #3
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Drop down in stakes, avg bi of 20 is quite high for someone who cant beat the game after rake. Also, you should have thought about what to change like 8k tournament ago. As you say, self-awareness is key. Better late then never
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Old 06-12-2017, 05:34 PM   #4
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Drop down dude and game select more often. I can't be sure but if your playing all the big $22 with thousands of players its prob not going to be good for your ROI longterm. Try playing on party poker where the players are soft. I would also stick to low $2-$5 bounty builders/freezeouts on stars where the players are not very good and your ROI will improve. Theres quite a big difference in skill level between people that play at $20 av buy in and those that play $5 and below. You need to find and play a lot more smaller field mtts as well. Party poker will be good for this.
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Old 06-13-2017, 06:20 AM   #5
poiulkjh
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by abecede View Post
Drop down in stakes, avg bi of 20 is quite high for someone who cant beat the game after rake. Also, you should have thought about what to change like 8k tournament ago. As you say, self-awareness is key. Better late then never
8k tournaments ago I was break even and had just won some tournaments, as you can see on graph
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Old 06-13-2017, 06:21 AM   #6
poiulkjh
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Soepgroente View Post
It means you're a slightly above average player which isn't good enough to win after rake. Also sample size is an issue as it always will be with mtts. Though 13k games is pretty decent.

At -3% roi which is roughly your result, using 500 man field sizes and 81 paid, this is what the variance calculator spits out:

99.7% of all simulated samples where within this interval. The second row shows to which ROI those profits correspond. Albeit rather unlikely, 3 out of 1000 players will experience a run better or worse than that. $-47,430 - $36,435 (997 out of 1000 samples)
-17% - 13% ROI

And of course you have different buyins, different field sizes, different field qualities etc making the variance even bigger. Plus you probably don't play the same way you did when you started your 13k sample, and neither did your competition. Even the optimistic top end 13% ROI isn't huge for a 20 ABI though, so there's probably a good bit of room for improvement.
I see, thank you a lot for your help

Even on the optimistic side I would not be a huge winner so theres clearly something wrong with my game
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Old 06-13-2017, 06:24 AM   #7
poiulkjh
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
Drop down dude and game select more often. I can't be sure but if your playing all the big $22 with thousands of players its prob not going to be good for your ROI longterm. Try playing on party poker where the players are soft. I would also stick to low $2-$5 bounty builders/freezeouts on stars where the players are not very good and your ROI will improve. Theres quite a big difference in skill level between people that play at $20 av buy in and those that play $5 and below. You need to find and play a lot more smaller field mtts as well. Party poker will be good for this.
what I noticed is that I dont play good on end games with deep stacks, I always get owned by other regular players

I play good early and middle game but end game costs me a lot of money, I can feel that Im not playing well

On MTTs this is a disaster of course

I will try playing more turbos and hypers so end game is not deep and see if it gets better

Thank you a lot for your help
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Old 06-13-2017, 04:47 PM   #8
abecede
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by poiulkjh View Post
8k tournaments ago I was break even and had just won some tournaments, as you can see on graph
That is great and all but being BE after 5k MTTs is not something you want either and after having that big downswing, you must have thought you are doing something wrong.
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Old 06-15-2017, 03:50 AM   #9
Malice Honking
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

What I think I see is that you go for bigger BI after a win. Keep your BI capped, dont punt it off when you banked value. you can ofc. reward yourself with a shot/bigger tournament after a win, but be smart with this --> soft sunday mtts/ site allocation
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:12 PM   #10
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

turbos and hypers are not going to help your ROI
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Old 06-21-2017, 06:20 PM   #11
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

You should probably try to beat games including the rake, since it does in fact exist. Probably lower staked games.

Last edited by rakemeplz; 06-21-2017 at 06:20 PM. Reason: effectively its getting worse
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Old 06-26-2017, 11:01 PM   #12
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Re: Am I getting eaten by rake or am I just a bad player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rakemeplz View Post
You should probably try to beat games including the rake, since it does in fact exist. Probably lower staked games.
If you aren't beating the rake, you aren't beating the game.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
turbos and hypers are not going to help your ROI
They help my ROI. It depends if you are good at them.
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