AK preflop?

[zex95966]

Sorry if it's the wrong thread area.
This is a casino poker tournament $50.00 USD for buy in and entry fee.

about 90 people showed up for this tournament, top 9 are in the money.

I'm pretty familiar with most of the players in this casino and they of me. I generally play 2-3 times a week there.

This is near the end of the tournament, 4 players are left. I have around 195,000 in chips and am second only to the chip leader at 205,000 in chips.
To put it in perspective, the other players have around 25k in chips, and the blinds are 2.5k-5k

I get AK and am first to act. I don't really want to flat-call with the possibility of going up against 4 players. A standard raise of about 3x seems a bit high to me when 15k is basically the same as forcing the little stacks all in. So I decide for a rather un-orthodox min-raise to 10k total.

second to act calls, SB folds, while BB (the chipleader) re-raises to 50k. I'm pretty familiar with the chipleader and know he's not raising me unless he thinks he has me beat. I know he doesn't think i'm bluffing but I also don't think he puts me on a monster. That doesn't tell me much about what he has though other than it's not utter crap, but I also don't think he has a monster... of course I've been wrong before

after deliberating I figure he has something like pocket 8's - 10's or AJ or better. I don't put him on a monster like AA, KK or AK - besides I had cards he needed for those hands, making it even less of a possibility.

Figuring he won't call with 10's or AJ (or less of course) I shove. SB folds.

I might have been right... but it turns out he had one of the hands that I figured he could call with...

JJ

My question is, can I fold this pre-flop with the reads I had?

[Otompsett]

ask him if he wants to run it twice

[busto23]

Originally Posted by zex95966

So I decide for a rather un-orthodox min-raise.

[random_chu]

yep

[bbbbb33]

Did u win?

[chinagambler]

Originally Posted by bbbbb33

Did u win?

Obviously not since he made an account to post this thread.

[dadonk]

jam it in and win and go on to win the tourny

[zex95966]

Very interesting posts, I have learned so much from all your wisdom.

What would change if I raised more? The big stack wasn't folding pre-flop and the only possible difference I could see is that the extra caller may have folded sooner. I don't see that as a missed opportunity since I would want to have the short stack eliminated and even if he had a monster, his stack was not large enough to pose a threat at this point.
Are all of you seriously saying you never sway from the standard plays?

I had another account but I either can't remember the info on it, or it was deleted... not that I agree with the implication that 1k posts equals a better poker player.


It's nothing new that the poker community thinks they are all higher and mightier than everyone else, I just wish I could play some of you in a casino, and let the cards do the talking.
Now when any of you poker players (perhaps I'm making a mistake in assuming you all are, I apologize to anyone this applies to.) want to talk about poker. Let me know.

Edit:

Originally Posted by dadonk

jam it in and win and go on to win the tourny

Ah someone actually attempted to offer some advice while I was posting. Good... so is there anyone else who want to talk about the hand?

[chinagambler]

AK vs a big pocket pair is super standard in this spot and there is not much you can do about it. Your min-raise was bad; you actually want the short stack to shove here since you're ahead of their range but flipping against the big stack sucks because of the bubble factor. As played, it's usually a reshove unless your bubble factor is really big (i.e. huge pay jump between 4th and 2nd).

[Dirt Diggler]

Originally Posted by zex95966

Ah someone actually attempted to offer some advice while I was posting. Good... so is there anyone else who want to talk about the hand?

yes...did you win the hand

(kinda important info)

[LostOstrich]

thats a pretty sick flat by the button

[mo3rtelmu]

fold, tournament sounds to soft to take such a marginal gamble

[Bigoldnit]

First, the reason that some of the responses have been a little snarky is that min raises are generally considered the "standard" in most online and higher stakes live tournaments... But I'm guessing based on your statement that 3x is the typical raise size in your casino. If that is indeed the case, I think I actually would have stuck with the 15k raise here.

(A) I want to make it clear to the short stacks that they need to go all in or fold... I have seen a lot of bad short stackers flat call min raises when they shouldn't, and with. a hand like AK, I want to make sure that I get it all in preflop with the shorties instead of letting the small blind flat call and then think he can pull a stop and go on me on the flop (I'm obviously still going with the hand post flop even if I miss, but I'm not as happy about it)
(B) I want to deter the BB from flat calling my raise. If he's a smart player, he should realize that he can call a min raise with a wide range of hands preflop and then put a lot of pressure on me post flop because I should be afraid of busting to him while the two short stacks are hanging around.

Now, as played, I actually think that you should fold here. If you truly believe that the cl is not raising you light, then you are flipping at best. Given that there are two super short stacks and assuming that the pay jumps are relatively large, you simply should not be getting in a big confrontation with the only guy in the tournament who can bust you... Now, if he has been three betting you frequently I'd go ahead and jam, but given your reads, the situation, and the size of his reraise (which seems to indicate to me that he has a real hand), I'd just fold and let at least one more of the shorties bust before I start getting into big confrontations with the cl.

[rh300487]

PPL overvalue AK so much these days. damn inet kids!

[chinagambler]

Sorry about my last reply; I just did the math. Assuming the payouts are 32%, 19%, 14% and 11% for the top 4.
Before the hand, villain's equity is 24.71%, your equity is 24.37%, the two short stacks' equities are 13.46% and 13.46%.
If you fold and lose your 50k, equities become 26.4%, 22.6%, 13.5% and 13.5%.
If you ship and win the flip, equity becomes 30.76% for you. If you lose, you get 11% because you bust. Even if you have a 50% chance to win the flip (you don't because you are an underdog vs a pocket pair), you are still better off folding $EV wise.