Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
If a player has a +ve bb/100 in tournaments it is likely that they are profitable. It would be your best guess if there was no other information but as mentioned in earlier posts you need a lot tighter a context to know if this player has a winning edge in tournaments.
A bb is an unknown quantity compared to the final $ result. You simply do need to know at what stage the tournament is in to get any useful information from it. You need to filter for 1 or two specific levels really, the more levels in the filter the less usefully accurate the bb/100 score is. As the tournament progresses the average stack in bb's drops and it gets more difficult to have a high value.
In some ways even chip ev can be more useful as before the final table most of the prize money has not be allocated and the 'icm' like value of a starting stack amount of chips is still worth quite close to it's starting 1st hand value. You can't say that about a bb, even if you avoid final table hands unless you know how many chips it is worth.
As the tournament progresses the average stacks increase as the players fall but the value of each starting stack block of chips stays roughly the same until payouts are made reducing it. The non ev-adjusted chip value isn't much use though as if you plot a graph for these you find that the only time you get to keep any and go positive is when you actually win a tournament. Perhaps you may be able to deduce how good a player is when 2 and 3 handed by a positive or neg result, but this will need many, many thou games to steady pout.
In my sample of around 220k hands, if I filter por blind 12k+, I have 2,2k hands total. This sample is useless. And it includes a lot of blind levels above 12k. So it will be pratically impossible to ever have a decent sample for specific blind levels, the high ones. So I prefer to rely on what someone said before: if someone is winning for 5bb+ in a decent sample, it's very unlikely that this aware of the game player will simply blow away his chips in the late stages. ICM is a thing, for sure, but it's unlikely that this player will not be aware of it.