WW Turbo Strategy/Guide that revolves around peeks - Page 4

like you are ignoring the relatively high percentage of the time that the wolves miss on n2 and are just ****ed because they don't know who the seer is

a lot of my wolf losses end because the village has it mechanically locked. that can never happen if the seer always HC's on d2

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:45 PM

#77

DWetzel

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 42,349

This thread has inspired me to play a turbo

well, let's not be silly

but it's inspired me to put more touches on the "how to wolf in mishmashes" article

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:45 PM

#78

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

I'd invite a claim battle over 3 or 4 (SHC) clear villagers at F7 because my chances of winning the claim battle are automatically significant and better than the runner runner mislynches I'd otherwise need. Killing an unclaimed seer who left game losing peeks isn't even on the table anyway, btw.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:48 PM

#79

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

situation: you're a wolf

d1 lynch and nk were v/v

seer is alive with 2 peeks

you have 2 wolves

the seer and his 2 peeks are not being lynched

you are honestly telling me you wouldn't want the seer to HC here? you'd rather have it go to night without knowing who the seer is?

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:49 PM

#80

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

Quote:

Originally Posted by DWetzel

This thread has inspired me to play a turbo

well, let's not be silly

but it's inspired me to put more touches on the "how to wolf in mishmashes" article

you should probably play turbos

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:54 PM

#81

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

If I have missed twice - lol me - and I still can't isolate the seer then I deserve to lose and as a functional matter WILL lose the vast majority of the time. In that situation you, the seer, might have MARGINAL equity over the already looming near-certain win, but wolf-me *personally* would LOVE IT if you gave me the out of just beating you in ONE argument at ML.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:54 PM

#82

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

and lets not forget that at f7...a wolf could get lynched!!! and then there is no claim battle to worry about

when you are lynching between the pool of 4 unpeeked people, you have a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf

in this case you win the game if seer survives the nk

so theres a 5050 for you right there that you have a chance of winning before you even get to the claim battle

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:55 PM

#83

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

i don't think you're understanding that when the seer HC's, you will still get that one argument at ML - except it will be against an unpeeked villager instead of the seer

i like my odds a lot better in that, where i don't have to pretend to be seer to win

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:56 PM

#84

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

i gotta run out for now

Quote

04-01-2015 , 08:57 PM

#85

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

the *village* is not lynching out of that pool, only *you* are, and *you* may have extreme problems controlling who the lynch targets are

moreover, again, once it hits ML you tell me what your odds of winning that fight are, I think they might be like 70/30 in your favor, which HAS TO BE WORSE than the odds of winning a normal turbo with a clear seer, 2 clear villagers, and probably a SHC villager, but in any case HAS TO BE WORSE even when the the SHC is a peek or you

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:01 PM

#86

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

And as a wolf I love any argumentative chance to win a game, but I really really really dislike day twos where the seer lock clears 3/5s of the remaining villagers with a SHC on the side. The game is ~ over every single time that happens. My win % there is like 5% unless everyone is an idiot.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:09 PM

#87

ReddBoiler

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 35,507

The easiest thing you can do as a wolf on day 2 if u missed the seer, is figure out who the seer is if someone with tmi is pushing you. So if they've peeked you, you hard claim before they do and make the village decide and you always look better by hard claiming first

Again, that's only if someone is pushing you with tmi, not just saying wow I think redd is probably a wolf.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:20 PM

#88

corycurren

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 13,629

There is no optimal strategy, the game changes based on the players involved and etc.

Hoya you are never going to convince me it is EVER +EV for a player like me to HC as seer in any game. Ever.

For some players it may be vital.

It depends.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:21 PM

#89

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

I mean, how do you think I ever win wolf games? I can't hunt seers. I win because the seer reveals himself to me on d2 and lays out my path of victory for me.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:22 PM

#90

jcohen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 37,819

Redd, we're talking about if the seer has two villager peeks though, not a wolfpeek.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:23 PM

#91

corycurren

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 13,629

So, Hoya, you are seer. You mislynched on d1. You have one living peek; your first peek got NKed.

Your living peek is the clearest villager in the game and his cover is good based on what you know (he's peeked you and the SHC). As far as you can tell most of the cover is good.

The lynch pool has been driven down to ~4 players, 3 of which being your top wolf suspects.

You are telling me you would (and should) always hard claim here?

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:27 PM

#92

corycurren

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 13,629

Spoiler:

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:51 PM

#93

iversonian

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 21,441

110 9er turbos where it reaches f5 ML with a seer alive, no modkills.

mislynch vanilla 11x
mislynch seer 15x
wolf lynch -> wolf win 27x
wolf lynch -> villa win 57x

very rare to lynch seer over a wolf at f5. overall villa winrate in this scenario: 52%.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:53 PM

#94

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

many of those (most?) will be with 1 wolf alive?

or I misunderstand?

I misunderstand. Word.

Last edited by CPHoya; 04-01-2015 at 10:00 PM.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:56 PM

#95

ihcjay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 44,298

What you do is bring rascal to f5 and have him vote the peeked villa...

Quote

04-01-2015 , 09:57 PM

#96

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

Quote:

Originally Posted by corycurren

In a perfect world where neither I nor my peek have any heat at all and everything is dandy, I consider not claiming but always counter-claim a wolf who finds a reason to claim.

I find that such calm, controlled turbo situations are beyond rare.

In any case, claiming there will STILL never be WRONG, it just might not be theoretically optimal, but of course when you don't claim, get nk'd, and they mislynched, you usually lose the next day anyway.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 10:01 PM

#97

CPHoya

Warden of Taipan Island

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 73,265

So anyway what iversonian is saying is that over that sample it's ~ 50/50 to win the game if you manage to do jcohen's advice, which I would theorize is significantly worse than F7 with a claim with 2 peeks alive.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 10:04 PM

#98

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

It's immaterial that the seer doesn't get lynched. That isn't what we're questioning here.

Quote

04-01-2015 , 10:32 PM

#99

benneh

hehe

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 29,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

I wonder what the numbers are when you have a live SHC also

obviously SHC cannot be relied on always but im sure it gives a significant boost

Quote

04-01-2015 , 10:33 PM

#100

IAmRobik

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 12,198

I didn't read the whole thing, but your seer/villager strategy is fundamentally wrong. I didn't read the comments either to see if anyone discussed it

Quote

Page 4 of 14

First

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 4 of 14

First

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Last