I think the best turbo advice is to scan the player list for "jcohen", "corycurren", "ReddBoiler" or "Gamer Dude" and sheep mercilessly

Hardclaiming as seer is boring

Makes me have to work harder to draw that N2 kill for you

I feel like in this analogy, you would be the JR Smith bombing 3s from deep, and the mechanical players would be the ones doing work inside to try to get the rebounds and passing it back out to you.

You aren't readless. The seer has the "truth advantage" and should have also been leaving clear peeks. And on n2, the seer should be ready to claim on d3 with all of his peeks and what it means.

The wolves, on the other hand, may still not know who exactly the seer is and have to spend their night trying to kill the seer. They won't be as ready to go right at the start of d3.

The seer should be able to quote his peeks and explain who the wolf team has to be based on them.


HC'ing does not give you any extra narrowed lynches because this is already assuming you and your peeks are safe and that you are lynching out of the pool of the unpeeked players.

The easiest way to win turbos: lunch wolves

If you do that you will probably win as a villager

Additionally, even if the wolves had been leaving clear peeks on d1 and d2, they could still get ****ed by mechanics - for example if one of their peeks was the actual seer, then they cannot win.

So the real seer does have better odds than the wolf fake-seer

We aren't read less, but this is a mechanic/theory post, and that is a fact of hard claiming at f7 vs claim battle at f5

I am not. I supposedly have an AMA coming up sometime but idk exactly when

Gamer summed it up nicely

if you looked over the past 100 turbo games, i would bet less than 5 ended in a claim battle at f5 ML


it would probably be closer to 0-2

so no, I'm not concerned about it

I don't know what else to say than this. I respect jcohen's game a lot.

I believe extremely strongly that he is categorically wrong about when to claim and I implore everyone to internalize the ML+1 rule so we can win proportionally more games, and avoid games being decided by must lynch claim battles between, inevitably, players who begin taking advantage of claim battle equity as wolves.

this is not necessary if you have left clear peeks and they aren't in trouble

Getting NK'd on n2 also increases the wolf win %

If you are lynching between the unpeeked players on d2, that is all that matters and there is no need to HC.

I know cory will support me on this one

The seer has even less reason to HC with only 1 live. Its as if you think its better for the wolves to aim for a villager on their n2 kill instead of the seer

this entire situation is assuming your peeks are not in trouble. if they are in trouble then you always save them at all costs - I've made that clear

when they are not in trouble, it is far from automatic to HC and often you don't need to

Also by ****ed by mechanics I assume you mean the times where the actual seer at F5 claims and the wolf actually peeked them villager, which is valid but *still* not better than just easily clearing people at F7 and probably winning the game.

For the most part, if the wolves miss on N1 their equity plummets and the game is an exercise in ABC game solving.

This is the part that's bad.

You accomplish this by having the seer leave clear peeks, and having villagers who pay attention the the peeks that are left which was a section in my post.

lets go through the best case scenario of Hc'ing at f7

-You lynch between the pool of unpeeked players

-You get NK'd

when you are already lynching between the pool of unpeeked players (can this be referred to as the PUP from now on), the only thing that HC'ing does is to ensure you get NK'd that night

i will happily submit that id rather have the seer survive n2 than get nk'd, even if it means there will be a claim battle

chances are the seer gets nk'd anyways, which is still at the same level as if you HC'd, because your peeks are still there and alive. and if you don't get nk'd, you have the game solved

the villagers should have been paying attention to your peeks, and the wolves will have to get lucky to even have a chance of winning the claim battle (to dodge being ****ed by the mechanics of their fake peeks).

Game theory this is correct. But there's other factors involved.

People don't sign up to turbo to sheep. They sign up to make their own reads and have a voice/ opinion that they expect to he respected/considered.

So, I think everyone should make their own reads but also consider our reads heavily.

the percentage of games that both end up in a claim battle and end up with the wolves winning is less than 1%. i can say that pretty confidently

and its far from clear that in those games the village would have won by the seer hc'ing at f7. they were probably likely to lose anyways

basically to sum up the problem with hoya's point


your concern over what will happen in <1% of the games should not make you completely change seer d2 strategy. seers do not need to come out and openly hardclaim just to try to salvage an extremely small number of outcomes

its better if the wolves do not know who the seer is

That's because we've coached what ends up being selfish seer survival tactics out of virtually everyone, which is in turn because villages are historically terribad at claim battles at ML.

This conversation is happening between us for the first time, but between notable turbo players for like the 9th time that I can remember and every single generation of players has turned out with the same rule of thumb.

EVEN IF there is marginal - and I mean very marginal - equity to be gained by trying to survive F7 with 2 peeks alive, it is still very, very desirable for everyone to just use the rule of thumb.

like i can confidently say that in all my wolf games I've ever played, i am extremely relieved whenever the seer HC's on day 2. it is so much easier to wolf when you know who the seer and the peeks are

No, once you coach people to not claim at F7 we get F5 claim battles on the reg. Also, they used to happen more. Also, villagers are really bad at claim battles, always. Also, you're a scary good player, I don't know why you think people are going to forget that and auto-believe F5 claims.

Right now no one does what you're saying, so it's a corner case. It won't be if people think what you're saying is a good move.

No I'm Frank Kaminsky. Versatile, can do it all, inside/outside / defend/ drbble/ shoot. Surrounded with good talent and a team willing to sponge, we just space the floor and play too well for the wolves to win.

Which is why I'm hoping to compel people that 95% of your post is good and the claim scheduling part is not the takeaway they should have.

i would guess thats because many people would let their peeks be in trouble while trying to survive

we are only talking about when the seer/peeks are both safe from being lynched



and i can tell you 100% that from a wolf perspective, i would always rather have the seer HC with 2 live villagers. it makes the game so much easier for me

all i can say is that for the sake of my future wolf games, i hope everyone adapts your strategy

wolves need to fake claim more imo. Force villagers to make a correct decision. Delay when they get to trust peek info.