I think the key at this point is that we now have some additional information to use when analyzing nightkills.
Aksdal kill night one SHC's TheNothing
Bsball kill night two is a little more ambiguous but
Originally Posted by bsball8806
In case anyone was wondering, here's where I'm at right now:
Villagery people (no particular order):
Meh (roughly in order):
Wolfy People (no particular order):
When you look at this post we now know that all three of bsball's "wolfy people" were villagers. We had also come to the consensus that TN was SHC night one. This means that if the wolves thought bsball was the seer then the only thing that they could possibly have killed him for was his "peeks" of Tbob and Milquetito.
We also know that at least one of TN/Tbob/Milquetito is a wolf so either the n1 or the n2 kill was some combination of an FPS kill and/or a pure strong player kill.
When I do this analysis I'm going to assume that the wolves didn't FPS two nightkills in a row because it's such a dangerous thing to do that if they did it and got away without having any of their "cleared" players peeked and without village locking the game by peeking others then more power to them - they took a huge risk and got away with it - wp gg
So the question to me becomes which kill was more likely to be an FPS/SP kill - I think it's quite obvious that it's the n1 kill. Generally when wolves kill someone that they know can't be seer it's because that person is someone that they want dead anyways with the added side benefit of seer hunt clearing a wolf. Looking at the above post by bsball can you really imagine any possible wolf team out of tbob/TN/Kruze/Hotwings/Milque wanting bsball dead? Given the way people were posting about Aksdal it seems far more likely that they would want him out of the game than that they would want bsball out of the game.
Another point is that Bsball was at various points getting some heat - I know I was calling him a wolf and there were not a lot of people who were declaring him as a lock villager - it's not out of the realm of possibility that bsball could have been a mislynch later in the game. Compare that to Aksdal on day 1 - no one was calling him a wolf at all and wolves probably (rightly) believed that he was very unlikely to ever be lynched.
In addition to that - the only reason that we're able to know what "peeks" bsball was killed for is because we now know that all of perdition/larry/monte were/are villagers - this is not the sort of clear cut "SHC" wolves generally want when they are FPS killing someone.
I think the simplest explanation for things here are that the wolves killed Aksdal n1 in part because he was a strong player, in part because he was never getting lynched, and in part to "clear" TheNothing. They killed Bsball because they believed he was a seer who had peeked Tbob and Milquetito villager, thus making our wolves TheNothing, Hotwings, and Kruze