i used british spelling as much as possible for cover. not sure why i bothered, lol.

I forgot who I was what was the link

we think alike

leaving pointless cover

i was pascal

this is a leak, it's hard enough to impose your will as a live villager let alone as a dead one. people will discard everything but your peeks once you're gone.

What was the link

http://race.boards.net

+1

Even the reads of the strongest of villagers have less of an impact on the game after they die than many people would think.

+2

this is one reason that I don't even bother posting most of my reads, because I'd rather just hammer home the most important one or two and hope a couple people take them seriously

hmm

I was brian

Alright, I don't know if this makes much sense, but here are some jumbled thoughts on the topic of making seer hunting difficult on the wolves (not that this is at all realistic or that I would advocate such a strategy, it should rather be seen as an extension of my previous post on the topic - sort of an exaggerated scenario):

Imagine if everyone made a thousand posts each day with only one of them containing an unambiguous peek. The wolves would quite likely not bother at all and just kill randomly (given that even when they find all the peeks, they also have to evaluate them). We could even add that all those posts would be posts about other players with no basis in actual opinions of those, meaning that the posts are random too and the wolves couldn't actually ever evaluate whether a peek is in line with other posts. Nobody would be able to sort through the thread and the wolves would ofc have more control in such a thread environment due to the horrible signal-to-noise ratio (especially if the posts are randomly generated thoughts on other players), and the lynch wouldn’t be random, unless a method was found for making it truly random. However, I can think of at least one unexploitable method for this, so let's say that it is actually random (except the seer can still claim).

To say it more succinctly: It is theoretically possible to think of a strategy where the lynch is truly random (seer can claim though and everyone else too ofc), the wolf night kill is truly random (with regards to finding seer), and where the village can find a dead seer's peeks with 100 % certainty if they spend enough time on it.

So the question is: Is this trade off +EV? A random lynch in exchange for a random wolf night kill until the seer dies or claims?

So the downside for the village is that if the seer is finally found by the wolves, they will have to spend a lot of time finding the peek, but the amount of discussion / time spent on gathering information in the thread that is lost during this time is surely more than outweighed by the information/+EV gained through the strategy (and the village could work together in reading through the seer – take 100-200 posts each or whatever). Sure, the later the seer dies (if he/she even dies), the more posts there are to look through, but equally more information has been potentially gained. If you disagree, then how about if it's less than 1000 posts per player? Or if let's say that it's something that can be read through in a day, but would take up most if not all of that day though?

I think everyone leaving proper cover is a better idea

i get what thingy is saying

i think it's good if nobody left explicit peeks but kinda made the combination of all posts a sort of puzzle which can be solved to point you to your peeks. wolves would have a woefully difficult time seer hunting 13 villagers but when 1 seer dies the village can collectively do a thorough analysis to solve what the peeks were.

i did that one time when my peeks were a consensus villager and the n1 kill. people went through my posts and POE'd who my peeks possibly are and they figured out the only possible combination based on the comments i made about the entire player list. i do that as a vanillager too, which is basically post whatever the hell i feel like that won't DQ me from peeking too many people. then by the time i would explicitly leave fakepeeks as a seer, i have a huge sample of info that i can use to make super confident ones.

Advice seems fine for vanilla games. In mish mashes with ITAs and high carnage you better damn well leave very explicit peeks or lol @u.

If you have a strong villa lean on someone and people don't agree, ideally you would be able to convince everyone why they're a villager without actually peeking them. If it's a type of read that you can't explain well for whatever reason, but you feel pretty strongly about it and others disagree, then sure it can be a fine peek. But if you're consistently peeking your strong reads cause you're being ignored or you can't convince others, then that's obv a leak.

I started writing something sorta on this but then lost my WIM to complete it.

I was Terrence (the second one :P)!

I can probably count on my fingers the number of times my villa read on someone has made another villager seriously reconsider their wolf read on that person.

Well, it's probably slightly more than that, but you get what I mean hopefully. Sure it's a leak, but villagers very rarely give a damn about anyone elses reads unless they're in line with their own, so it's not an easy 'leak' to fix. I'm not advocating Dean's strat completely either, I think everything is too contextual for that, but there's def merit to basically making sure the rest of the village can't **** up endgame no matter how much they try to do so.

the point of peeking them is so the village doesn't mislynch them when you're dead. if you can't convince people to not lynch your villa reads when you're dead that's not a leak because nobody can do that. and if i only have an 85-90% villa read on somebody i'm not going to scream for them to never, ever die either.

soah, this is gonna be a lot briefer and unsatisfying than your posts but I think most of what you said is exactly on point except for the lying part. IME villagers lie almost just as much as wolves especially in non-cadillac versions of the game. Obviously we can't have a non-anecdotal conversation about this. I think most people are deceptive of themselves and their role for many reasons most of which aren't necessarily due to which team they are on. Seers are wolfy, etc. etc.

Additionally I feel a lot of people including myself have a metaneutral start of ignoring pushes, which doesn't have to do with your pyramid of lying but more to do with the negatory consequences of the villages chances on focusing the thread on your role.

Yes we are talking about real werewolf

I'm not sure exactly what this is in response to. I actually said that outright lies (or false statements) should just be ignored in most cases, aside from obvious stuff like fake claims to avoid lynch. Nothing is going to be perfect, especially in games where even villagers have secrets, but signs of deception in general should hold up better than many other types of reads.

I'm saying people react deceptively very often as villagers in the same ways they would act as wolves.

I guess I read your post wrong.

I feel bad that I didn't explain much of what I was referring to in this part of my recent post:

So I'm going to try to give more detail on that. This won't be a comprehensive list, but it will cover some of the broad (and overlapping) areas.

1) How does a person handle multiple suspects?

I often use the word "juggling" to describe how villagers handle their wolf suspects. Most wolves know that they need to have multiple suspects at the same time in order to fit in, but it can be tough for the wolf to give each of them proper attention. The villagers will often be pushing suspects in pairs and even trios. They will change their vote more frequently than wolves. They will continue to give close attention to their secondary suspects even when they have a vote that they like. Wolves have a hard time imitating this, because it's tough to keep track of what you're doing with multiple people simultaneously, and because the wolves prefer to plan out the day and pick the one person they want lynched. The spontaneity of the villager is disruptive to the wolf agenda. The villager will often be happy to get any of his top suspects lynched.

2) How does a person handle suspects that are not viable lynch targets?

The villager is working to solve the game. If he finds a wolf that is not getting any attention, then in order to win the game he must bring that person to everyone's attention and drive the lynch. This may manifest itself as a hopeless crusade, but it's not always so extreme. But one way or another, the villager does not forget about his suspects just because the rest of the village isn't paying attention. The villager will continue to work to develop the read, to continue bringing it up. Wolves, especially inexperienced ones, tend to be more pragmatic and focus on the villagers who can actually be lynched. (Note, however, that wolves will often continue to talk about the wolf reads that they have on their wolf partners, hoping to eventually get credit for it later in the game.)

3) Do they care about what they are doing?

This one remains tricky to describe. Villagers care about finding the wolves. A villager who has sufficient time to invest in the game will likely show signs of emotional investment. Wolves are likely to fake the obvious emotions, such as happiness or sadness depending on who is winning. However, villagers can display a wide range of emotions which are appropriate to the smaller details of the situations. They can become legitimately frustrated when things are not working out either for the village as a whole, or for them personally in terms of finding the wolves. They can become upset or angry or annoyed at people who are hurting the village. They can be surprised when their reads are wrong. They can be suspicious. They can show pride after accomplishing something positive. These emotions can be seen in how people talk. When a person is showing emotions which are appropriate for the content of their posts, you can be more confident that they are being sincere. A lack of emotion throughout someone's posting can be a red flag. It's tougher for the wolves to get the emotions right since they must be faked. It's worth noting that anyone can become emotional when being lynched, regardless of role. That's not a good place to be looking for clues.

Villagers can also show emotion through the content of their reads. There is likely to be a degree of confidence to their strongest reads (here I would note that a villager might be confident about who is the best lynch without necessarily being confident that the person is guaranteed to be a wolf). They might be incredulous that others don't share their opinions. They are more likely to use strong descriptive words. Wolves know that they are lying and therefore their reads often come across as being more timid, sometimes even confused. However, when wolves post reads which are correct, they find it easy to show confidence, sometimes even too much confidence.

4) Are they doing work for themselves, or for others?

Villagers are working to solve the whole game, while wolves are just trying to work on one mislynch at a time. Villagers will often engage in work that has no immediate and direct effect on the game. They will be probing people who are not viable lynch candidates. They may do research on their cleared villagers just to make sure they didn't overlook anything. They may be engaging in work without explaining what they are doing or why they are doing it. Wolves, however, only need to do work as a show for the villagers, and want to make sure that the village is not missing their show.

5) Are they showing us their reads, or telling us?

Villagers and wolves both respond to posts made in the game thread. Villagers and wolves both post lists of reads at some point. When the villagers post their list of reads, I usually have a good idea of what it will say before I read it. With the wolves, I don't always know what it will say. That's because the villagers give away hints about what they are thinking during the normal course of posting. If two players seem to be arguing with each other a lot, I am not surprised when one shows up on the other's wolf list. When one player questions another player about his actions, I can infer that there is suspicion behind the questions. When a player criticizes the case made against another player, I can infer that he may have additional reasons to defend that person aside from just disliking the case that was made. It's often not possible to see this stuff in the posting of a wolf because the wolf may not have had time yet to think about what reads he is supposed to have. So while the villager may post a list of reads to summarize the things he has already said and implied, the wolf is often posting a list because he realizes that he needs to start posting some content.

6) Have they commented on the important things?

Often during a game day, there will be some sort of major event that takes place. This could be two people getting into a very long fight. It could be someone claiming a power role to avoid lynch. It could be someone claiming to have peeked a wolf, and then retracting the claim. It could be some other crazy stuff that happens right at the end of the day. Whatever the event may be, every villager who reads it is going to have thoughts about what it means, and will share those thoughts. Wolves often have a hard time knowing how they are supposed to react to unusual events, and they may go quiet at that time (if they are online and posting at the time), and may never address it at all or only in a superficial manner.

I think that this covers much of the territory. Hope this was helpful.

I love that that post is also a roadmap of how to wolf well (in stylistic and some tactical senses; obviously it contains no wolf strategy). Of course, the point is that faking all those things is hard for wolves so the tells are good, but posting like what you're looking for in villagers is the goal of any wolf who's trying to look like a villager.

I also had a strong feeling was I read through point 3 that that's why so many players don't trust me when I'm a villager — I know that I do show those emotions when I play, but probably not in the normal ways. Good players and those who know me see it, but others don't.

I hated that post because it's too good :P

yeah, soah makes me want to be good at werewolf.