soah's post could have been subtitled Applications of Information Theory to Werewolf. looks solid (and well written). not sure where you're expecting controversy to come from.

i think you should write it so i can write the one opposing it.

do you also think that that is the best way to maximize villa win equity?

I'm hoping that one day I'll have the guts to substitute my strongest village reads for my dead peeks. But I'd feel like a selfish jackass if I screwed it up, so I don't know if I'd ever actually do it when hardclaiming. But it's at least worth doing if I'm just leaving a semi-clear list of peeks without claiming. Then I'm not likely to be NKed if it's wrong, and if I die anyway when it's wrong then the village at least has a fair shot at figuring out that my list wasn't my peeks when the guy never gets NKed. But most of the time it just gives a bonus confirmed villager.

I didn't think that seer fps was in style at the moment. Perhaps I got the wrong impression from the discussion at shorty's website.

:P

This post doesn't do much to shake my paranoia that you're actually lastchance.

It depends on the game type I think. In a mishmash or even some of the most ambitious V+ games it's unlikely you'll get to really POE the game from your peeks, so I think just trying to pick off some hidden wolves* is the best course of action. The fact that some of the wolves being found would alter the wolf kill rate while you finding villagers cannot should also make you want to go for the hidden wolves. In smaller vanilla games it's more likely that 2-3 live villager peeks can win the game by POE, so going for those seems best.


* Hidden wolves isn't "Everyone thinks this person is a villager and my TONE READ says they are a wolf". It's the people that are out of the limelight, could be wolves, and won't be resolved for a while.

well, you included the caveat that it was mostly for situations where the seer has information of low value, so I don't think it's that fps'y in that context

the "I peeked either X or Y wolf" thing is perhaps the most fps'y thing you wrote

Soah

So you think it's important to force the wolves to work hard to find the peeks?

situational

but generally yes

also when i read these i assume they are geared towards vanillas

ya it merges nicely with a standard vanillager seer cover which is nice. bonus points if you peek somebody who you have meta of soulreading since people assume that no seer would ever peek somebody they can read 100%

i think so. if a seer is able to claim with good vanillage peeks, it often forces a wolf to mislynch a villagery villager or two to win which is always a pain.

this sounds +EV but i doubt i'd have the stones for it. i'd feel too badly about myself if i somehow was wrong and died.

we need a reveal on identities in that seer conversation from the shorty forum

i'd never peek my strong villa leans I always peek in the marginal players in the POV of the entire thread. then when i claim seer i just try and enforce my will re: strong villa so i'll be listened to more likely

what if you have a strong villa lean who is a marginal player in the POV of the thread

i think these types are the best peeks

That's the part I was referring to.

Generally speaking, yes. Unfortunately, this can also waste an equal amount of the village's time, so it's something I've started to reconsider after the misery of having to look through 500 posts of a seer who was NKed. And it's often harder for the villagers than the wolves, since the village has to be absolutely certain of your peeks whereas the wolves can just kill you if you seem to be right about everything.

This reminds me of something else. If the seer is NKed and we can't figure out the peeks, I'm always going to act like I've figured them out, as long as there is any sort of reasonable basis for me to do so. I don't actually care if I'm right about them being the peeks. I just want to force the wolves to make kills on our agenda rather than theirs. Wolves generally go along with it as long as there appears to be consensus, and if one of those players doesn't get NKed then we can revisit the evidence and decide if their survival is incriminating or a setup. (I don't think it's a setup too often, as long as the village was doing a good job of acting convinced of the peeks.)

I was Waldo (the sub).

heh, i actually tried this play once. problem is, we didn't have enough runway that it seemed conspicuous that that player was still alive. also, i got high off my own supply and started believing he was peeked villager.

I agree with your rethinking

I think we waste too much of the villages time deciphering peeks

In the discussion on shorty's forum I talked a bit about who to use your final peeks on when it's almost time to claim. My position is that it's best to peek the players who are most likely to lose an endgame (as villagers) so that the wolves are forced to kill them. I'm not worried about letting strong players go to endgame unpeeked. I have confidence in strong villagers catching a strong wolf more often than not. But I really don't want endgame to be decided by a couple of villagers who have barely paid attention to the thread. Usually the wolves will cooperate and kill all the peeked players, but even if they don't then at least the useless villager arrives at f3 as a confirmed player and can just focus 100% on trying to do better than a coinflip.

I was Shane

i was nicholas.

How can this ever be the case though?

If everyone's peeks were difficult to find (but let's say that they would pretty much always be found in the end given that they are unambigous once found), the wolves can easily overlook stuff because they have a lot of people to focus on. But when it comes time for the village to read the seer for peeks, they only have one person to focus on and would always find the peek, although they do have to go through a lot of posts (but the wolves had to go through even more posts).

edit: And if it's the case that the wolves are discouraged from even bothering to go through all of the posts (and thereby didn't "waste" as much time as the village), then that's only a good thing, since it means that their seer hunting suffers from it.

that's precisely what I want to avoid because if i'm confident enough i can impose my will and that read may as well be a peek because i will be listened to

forgot that went on for a bit. my partner stopped posting so i did too . meh