Article #5: How to Approach Must Lynch
- written by Toganim
This article will debate two main subjects: When to vote
and who to vote
Unless specifically mentioned otherwise, both subjects will be discussed in a situation where:
- It is ML.
- There are at least 2 wolves left.
- No one has voted yet.
For future reference, Iíll use these terms:
Hero = us (villager)
Villain = everyone else (can be v/w)
When to vote
POG consensus seems to be that ďif a villager votes for another villager in ML, game is overĒ. This is not entirely true. Manipulating the timing of votes can prove to be a game-saver.
First of all, we want to initiate the voting process by making wolfy people vote other wolfy people.
Though it might seem obvious that we donít want clear people to vote other clear people, people rarely actually force wolfy people to vote other wolfy people.
Secondly, we want wolfy players to vote sooner rather than later. Weighted village consensus should decide the timing of votes
(clear people weigh more than wolfy people). Forcing wolfy people to vote before villagery people has a lot of benefits, but mainly:
- The village increases the chance of putting wolves in distress. Villain will be forced to take a stand and justify the vote. Villain will no longer be able to express an opinion and then change it to snipe later.
- It minimizes the risk of wolves piling on a villager if a villager votes wrong.
- The villagery people will have more information to base their vote on.
ML in F7. Village consensus seems to be (rank of villageriness): A > B > C > D > E > F > G.
Truth is that D/E/F are the wolves.
Villager A and B are the most clear, so people trust them the most and let them decide. They each have trouble deciding if they want to vote F or G. If one of them votes G itís game over, since D/E/F will pile on G, making it majority.
Village forces G to vote first. Heíll vote F, making F vote him. Village inverts the order of votes, making E vote first. Wolves E and D are voting before villagers C, B and A. E and D will need their vote to reflect whatever reads they had previously (or at least have a great reason to not vote like that) or they will most likely out themselves.
Letís say that D+E are voting for F/G. This makes it 2-2 with 3 villagers to go. A ML situation with 2-2 votes and 3 villagers remaining is better than 1-1 with 3 villagers and 2 wolves remaining
If D+E decide to go for the win and they both vote for the villager, A+B+C will get more info and might be able to solve the game better. Important information would be something like:
- FG are not v/v (or game would be over) [This might not seem too helpful, but itís more important than knowing that AF are not v/v since A is the clearest person in village consensus anyway].
- GED includes at least 1 wolf (or game would be over).
- If G is villager, then ED are wolves (or game would be over).
This info was not obtained if A or B decided to vote for whoever they found the wolfiest. ABC now needs to vote on either F or G. And village can afford one of them to be wrong and vote for G if the wolves decided to spread out their votes.
Why would G vote first when heís not a wolf? G wants to vote first because:
Who to vote
- He realises that heís in high danger of getting lynched.
- He needs to pick a battle; if a super clear villager votes for him, he will be lynched. He needs to make sure that he can get someone else lynched. Bringing us to the next subjectÖ
Itís your time to vote. No one made it easy for you by voting you first, so you have to vote first. This is what you do:
Voting for whomever you think is most likely to be a wolf will look good in a vacuum, but itís not always the best vote to optimise the chances of winning for the village. You have to weigh in the factor of village consensus.
Voting someone in ML will always result in them auto-voting you, making ML about you or them. One of you has to go.
If village consensus is that hero is more likely a wolf than villain, then hero gets lynched (and vice versa).
From heroís perspective, voting the second most likely wolf and getting him lynched is always
better than voting for the most likely wolf and ending up getting lynched yourself.
Whoever you vote will auto-vote you back, which will result in 3 possible outcomes:
1) You voted a villager; wolves win
2) You voted a wolf, wolf gets lynched; resulting in another day
3) You voted a wolf, you get lynched; wolves win
Voting for your second most-likely wolf will increase the possibility of outcome 1, but it will also potentially remove outcome 3. Overall EV massively improved, since everyone is a better lynch than you
Donít despair if you canít get your top wolf suspect lynched today. Village consensus might change overnight.
- Force wolfy players to initiate the voting by voting for other wolfy players.
- After these first votes, let the remaining wolfy players go next.
- If you are first to vote, donít necessarily vote for whoever you think is most likely to be a wolf, but instead consider who might actually be lynched over you.